91 [Market in limbo. Potential monster setups building though. Mar 26, 2020]

  • SPYs, markets gapping up a bit, some of these stocks held up really well yesterday, looking for some kind of weakness. Orls, or if they push out of the gate first red 5 min candle. Is a bear market rally and we could bounce more than people think is possible.
  • TVIX annoying, had a starter premarket, low 430s when it looks like it was about to fade, faded a bit then right back up stopped me out, now it’s fading.
  • Not going to trade first 5 mins, gonna wait for ranges to set up. All running up into declining MAs, most up 100/150% off the lows.
  • UBER already taking out orls.
  • WYNN taking out orls also, shorted some. WYNN reversing, should have waited for 5min red candle. Stopped out of starter, good, higher the better.
  • CVNA also shorted starter 1/3 size. CVNA working best so far, only have a starter.
  • PENN did some low 15s. PENN has been holding 60min range, needs to break this 14.50 area. Have half size on it, may add if it breaks 14.50s later.
  • Have some starters on but nothing really 5 star setup yet. Market in a range rn, could rally or fade 5 points, odds favour downside but idk, waiting for 60min ranges to build for more size. A full day of continuation strength today and gap up tomorrow would be an ideal scenario to short.
  • TLRY up another 43% today, that’s what happens when stocks get this beaten down. TLRY was down almost 90% in like a month, you can clearly see on the 60min chart, beaten down, beaten down, then down here it started breaking these down sloping MAs, on some big big volume. That’s when I bought, when it broke out the hods. And it doubled just like that.
  • Oversold setups just like this, you only get them every few years. It depends why things are oversold, I prefer things that are oversold, I prefer things that get oversold in a bear market, those are the best ones. Continuation breakouts are the best in bull markets, it all depends on the market conditions. Like I would never buy a breakout in this kind of market environment. That’s why I passed on ZM when it looked like it was about to breakout, sure this thing happened to have some nice follow through, but generally in corrective markets you don’t get many b/os that work, most of them just fail. You have to look at other types of setups, like mean reversion setups. You have to be very aware of the markets and where we are in the market cycle. So I’ve been mostly doing mean reversion stuff, both on the long and the short side.
  • Right now I’m not really finding anything to buy, bc everything has already bounced in the past 3-5 sessions. When you have a bunch of lc stocks up 50/100% in a week, you’re really not gonna find anything on the long side. Doesn’t mean it’s the right time to short yet, but I think it will be soon. Either we need a full day of continuation strength, close strong in the markets today and a gap up tomorrow and then fade that gap up, or if we get some range breaks to the downside, like if we don’t go up we just go sideways and then start failing ranges to the downside.


  • I’m gonna go enjoy the beautiful day outside, I’m gonna buy a bike. It’s gonna be great.
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