90 [Bear market rally. Mar 25, 2020]

  • SPY bit of a gap up, not as big as I was hoping for, wanted several % gap up, but better than nothing. Lots of stocks up 50/100/150% over several sessions, should be great shorts, if not today then later this week. Trying not to be too eager out of the gate, could easily bounce to 250s on SPYs, if so these stocks will all go higher, so don’t want to be too early. I’m just watching the SPYs, it’s important to see which stocks show rs and which show rw and play accordingly. The SPYs taking out highs and casino names not taking out highs, that’s something to keep an eye on.
  • SABR bought late day this range break on the 60min, could easily go up 50% potentially. SABR I have from yday not pulling back that’s a good sign, this is one of the most beaten down names, down 84% a couple days ago, could easily bounce another 50% but I did sell about 15% into that high 5s rush.
  • TVIX cover yday was best cover ever, covered all orhs and a bit higher bc it showed rs to the SPYs, went up together with it so I just covered everything, was up 50% pm today so very happy about covers.
  • MGM up 145% from the lows. Shorted a bunch gonna use highs as stop. MGM quick dollar need to cover up some here. Omg MGM this is how we do it yep, covering more. These are big moves MGM is down 20% from the highs, very violent moves, gotta be so fast.
  • BA also showing rw, lower highs intraday. BA shorted some too. BA need to cover some up here. I wish I’d caught some of these bounces, bc some of them had good chart patterns on the 60min chart, 3/4/5 days ago. Like BA I tweeted out even, can clearly see the rangebreak on 60min chart, went up 45% in a few days. Don’t chase these things guys, they’ve already had big down moves, the entry on these things was like 20mins ago.
  • NCLH shorted some. Already covered some quick dollar flush on it. Going to swing all of these, but want to lighten up a little bit [covered about 1/4 to 1/3 across stocks]. Right now just covering into flushes, then mid/late day will see if can get some ranges. May be some more entry points in a couple of hours, if things can start bouncing a bit then fail at these declining vwaps.
  • Yes I always scan every day, you always have to come prepared to every trading day, you always have to adapt.
  • Some pretty textbook reversals on a bunch of stocks. Stocks up 3-5 days in a row, that’s my bread and butter. Right now everything is very correlated, everything moves together right now, it’s kind of a special market condition rn, but yeah this setup works in every market condition.
  • You don’t short things right out the gate, you wait for some kind of range to build, so you can have a set stop, so you don’t get run over by insane moves. You look for orls or if you get a big straight up move you look for the first red 5min candle. Certain situations I use the 1min, but I generally prefer the 5min, wait for break of that candle, that’s the trigger, and you use stop hod or highs of that candle. You always need to have a set risk on trades, preferably as tight as possible to get a good r/r.
  • UBER, don’t chase stuff, wait for mid/late day for these things to bounce, either bounces to fail or rangebreaks to the downside. That being said, there could be a short through lod mid or late day, if it builds a nice little range, if it bounces around a bit, starts building lhs, then you get a nice rangebreak, but rn it needs to digest its move.
  • Longs, same as shorts, I manage in the same way. If they close weak I’m gonna just sell them, if they close well I’ll hold.
  • Remember if you missed all this action, don’t start chasing stuff. Wait for setups. Wait for good r/r setups.

#shorting #masterclass

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