89 [$TVIX sub $300! f’king awesome! Mar 24, 2020]

  • TVIX has been the greatest trading vehicle I’ve ever seen, it’s not even close. I’ve had 3 million dollar days on this so far. You have to understand these vehicles are programmed to go to 0, as soon as fear leaves these things have unwinds, this thing built premium for a month and now it’s unwinding, SPYs don’t even have to go up a lot, markets don’t even need to bounce as long as we don’t get any more panic selling this TVIX is gonna go towards 0 forever bc this is what it does, just look at the longer term chart. Tightened up stops, willing to add more if mrkts bounce and shows rw. TVIX added orls. Omg this thing is going to zero, just putting sell orders in, I’m covering on the way down obviously. TVIX sized down, covered more than half. I don’t like that TVIX is showing such relative strength rn, the market thinks this bounce is going to fail, we could go back to 400 easily, bc now I see premium starting to build back in, I don’t think the r/r is on the downside, I really don’t. I’m gonna cover all of it, I don’t want to give back any profits on it. The markets in a limbo.
  • AYTU, got stopped out of starter size 4 times yesterday, then in ah went higher, now gapping up slightly. A lot of warrant sellers holding this thing down yesterday, it built higher lows all day, momentum and buying pressure obv there, the question is how much do warrant sellers still have left to sell.
  • ZM unfortunately gapping down, but looking for setups, 152 is key area for later.
  • SOXL main long watch for a long term swing, ideal 3-6 month hold. Semis and Software strongest sectors by far, holding MAs really well, will be winning sectors moving forwards once the crisis is over. Bought SOXL orhs starter. Would love to double position but afraid of gap down tomorrow. Will sell half if takes out orls, looking to build position over weeks. If it takes out hods I’m gonna add more, I think could be a double over the next few months.
  • You better get used to this, because if you wanna be a trader, you have to accept that this is a structural part of the market. Low volatility periods are followed by high volatility periods, are followed by low volatility periods, and it’s been like this for 200 years, and it’ll probably be like this for the next 200 years. This is a great time to be trading.
  • There’s still too much correlation. What I want to see is less correlation among different stocks, everything is moving in tandem, it’s very hard to pick individual stocks in an environment like that.
  • TDOC f*ck I missed, orls on this thing.
  • What I would like to see in the markets is if we get maybe a bounce first, and then another series of days where we sell off again in the indices, and I would like to see some of the best growth stocks hold up, not go down with the markets, that would be a very strong potential bottoming signal. Right now it’s too hard to tell either way, yes some stocks are decoupled, or at least they’re showing strong rs like AMD, but it’s still a a little bit too early to start building a portfolio on the long side.
  • Just because things are bad, doesn’t mean the markets have to go down every single day forever, and also markets don’t bottom on the good news, they bottom on bad news, bear markets end when there’s still bad news. It’s already known, everybody knows it, everybody’s grandma knows it, it has to be something that’s really bad and is surprising. That doesn’t mean we can’t go lower, we could have a little bit of a bounce then an undercut, just like Oct 2008 [25% bounce in 3 days], just like in 2011. The key now is to see, if we hit news lows again, they key is to see if the breadth is as bad as in the beginning and mid march, bc if the breadth is lower, then we know we’re very near a bottom.
  • Don’t buy into all the doomsday bullsh*t. Yes we’re down 35%, look around you, is the world worth 35% less than it was yesterday? Yes a lot of sectors are gonna get hit, but there’s a lot of sectors that are gonna gain from this. The key is to find companies that are going to gain not just short term, but business for many years, like TDOC telehealth theme etc, there’s gonna be so much money to be made.
  • Soon we will be in a super, super great swing trading environment, that’s all I can tell you. I’m almost drooling. Like back in late Dec 2018, it’s gonna be the same this time. We’ll know more in a couple of weeks. There’s gonna be two types of setups that are gonna work; the really beaten down names, and the ones that held up well. Two types of opp, once the volatility and the fear goes away.
  • ZS just shorted some, looks kinda extended, wouldn’t be surprised if it pulls back to low 50s or something, not gonna do any crazy size don’t have big conviction in anything rn.


  • We’re all millionaires. It just depends what currency you identify yourself with.
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