87 [$1.3M gain on $TVIX. Mar 20, 2020]

  • TVIX oh yeah you bet I did, I caught some TVIX short yesterday, oh yeah, with some big size, big time, oh yeah. I could see the decoupling, you could clearly see when it started decoupling from the indices, I was short some before but here is where I started really adding [827s] because I saw at like 12:45, the SPYs where nowhere near their highs, but TVIX was close to taking out lods. Then here when it started making lhs I added some here too 1:45, SPYs building lower highs on 5 min chart and nowhere near hods, TVIX also building lhs and had this big multi day rangebreak, that’s where I added some size. It went down over 30% in like an hour or two. You could clearly see the rw, I’ve looked at TVIX chart for two weeks and that’s the first time in 2 weeks that happened, that gave me some big conviction. Unfortunately I covered some pm here 760s 1000shares bc I didn’t want to deal with a $200 gap up, instead we got a $200 gap down.
  • TVIX did some here, anticipated orls a little bit. Stopped starter gonna reshort if it takes out lods. Added a bit to TVIX overnight bc market at a very critical bounce point here on this trendline, if it can’t bounce here not a good thing. TVIX trade from yday, epic. TVIX had always shown rs to the SPYs, but the day before yest something changed, when it peaked at 1000. After it peaked at 1000, SPYs went lower, but TVIX didn’t take out hods, and it got very obvious yesterday mid/late day, where it started building lhs and taking out ranges to the downside, while SPYs were sideways, SPY put in a tight range, but TVIX clearly sold, could clearly see the rw. I was short a little bit before and I added when it broke this 5min range, then more here, then I think more here, it was just a waterfall decline. I know some people say TA doesn’t work on these volatility products, yes it does, they don’t trade on supply demand, but TA still works exactly the same. TVIX just unwinding right now, you can clearly see the volatility unwind. I did add some high 520s when it took out yesterday’s lows, but I have half the size I’d like to have, hopefully we get a bounce or a range to short, because even yesterday there were ranges to the downside. TVIX gonna add more through the lods with a tight stop. TVIX Oh yeah, this is called backside, this is what happens on backside, bad things happen on backside, unless you’re short. SPYs pulling back a little bit, let’s see if TVIX can keep on the rw. Adding more again through lods, tight stops on adds. This has been building premium for a long time, this is what happens when premium unwinds.
  • TLRY bought in low 3.30s yesterday. Was up almost 25% pm. Sold some into opening pop. Selling more into strength. Raising stop to b/e. Bought yesterday anticipation hod breakout, was down 90%, building hls, big vol coming in.
  • BLPH I got some borrows, think it looks intriguing. BLPH how do you trade this thing, no charts to trade off just halts. BLPH started building a range here, 20 is a key level, obviously doesn’t mean this thing can’t go higher, but I will be interested in it here, up 600% on the day, doesn’t mean it can’t go higher, but it’s all about the set risk/reward. Got some here filled only 1/3 starter size, now it’s halted. BLPH I have 20kshares, okay stopped out of half, way too strong wants to go to 30. Added back a little and lowering stop, looks like it’s struggling here at vwap. BLPH rn rejected off vwap and been building lhs all day. All out stopped, now it is reclaiming vwap I don’t like that. BLPH added back some, I can’t stay away from it.
  • UBER main watch. UBER taking out lods, missed it. I would have liked a bigger move higher first. UBER building an interesting little formation here, hls and lhs, getting v tight intraday, I hope this thing goes higher.
  • PENN having big move, halted to the upside, almost a triple from the lows.
  • APRN such an epic shorting opportunity orls. Sometimes the best shorts are the ones that are already down 50%.
  • So much opportunity in this market, if you wait for it, if you really wait for it, and act decisively when you see it. Enormous opportunities when there’s panic, liquidation. Enormous, if you can preserve cash when it happens.
  • If we keep going today, going to be a lot of short setups for Monday [day 3 of bounce]. A lot of stocks having 2/300% bounces right into declining supply.
  • Software is the place to be, asset light companies that’s where you should invest. All these asset heavy companies just, such hard businesses.

#shorting #masterclass

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