84 [A MILLION DOLLAR LOSS on $TVIX. – still up on the month. Mar 16, 2020]

  • TVIX well I held 6000 shares over the weekend, not a great idea, not a great idea. 1 Million dollar loss. This is such a black swan event we are seeing in the mrkts rn. The spys are gapping down 10/11% from friday, TVIX gapped up about 50%. The craziest thing, I’m still up on the month. Once this thing gets backside I’m gonna make it all back, and more. Right now I’m not happy about it, dollar wise it’s the biggest but percentage wise I’ve been through much worse. In my early days I had instances where I lost a big chunk of my account in a couple of hours, so this is really nothing, you have to look at the positives, and the fact I’m outperforming 99% of all market participants. And I’m really certain the lower we go there’s gonna be an enormous bounce, we just don’t know when. Obviously very dangerous getting in front side, TVIX looked backside Friday see these trendlines I drew. But yeah, today’s a new day. Let’s see if we can put in a bounce here, if not, I’m not gonna step in front. TVIX shorted some orls, my god these moves are so f*cking fast. Interesting TVIX is coming down with the market. It tells me there’s a lot of premium that wants to come out of TVIX once the market starts to bounce. Now the market is bouncing and TVIX up, weirdest thing I’ve ever seen.
  • TVIX I can’t believe, I was long TVIX here 125s on this day here [3/3/2020] from premarket and orhs, and it stopped me out, then late day it took out the highs, I never rebought, it only went up about 300% since! I was also long in 40s, I think I added in the 60s, and then I sold on the way up, but I sold them all over 100 bucks, I didn’t think it was going to go higher. TVIX building hls all the way, really needs to break this uptrend. I picked the wrong instrument today, we have very little upside rn in the markets approaching these 60min resistance areas on SPYs, I really want to see some rw on TVIX not this rs.
  • SPYs look pretty scary on the weekly, below the 200weekly, no support. For my sake and for the sake of all the traders who are liquid rn, I hope we get a 1987 type of a crash. Go down another 10/15% from here, in one or two days, that would be insane.
  • I’m not a fan of all the trading psychology books. The thing is, if you have a successful trading methodology, a system that works, you don’t need any trading psychology. Just focus on the system, when it works, when it doesn’t work, when you should push, when you shouldn’t push. Just focus on the setups, and the systems. Develop something that works for you.
  • If you are scared, don’t trade. That’s a very sound strategy. There’s nothing wrong with not trading. There is nothing wrong with not trading.
  • In trading, you always have to reframe things in a positive way, bc you are going to have some incredible setbacks, all of us. The only thing that are guaranteed in the financial markets are hardships and setbacks, and it’s how you handle those that determine your future success. So that’s why I’m trying to reframe my big loss in a positive way.
  • Position sizing, well generally, intraday I can be heavy, I can have 50/100% of my account in a stock, I rarely do, but I always have stops in place, automatic stops. But overnight, my rules are generally 10/20% of my account. I rarely do more than 20% of my account in any stock or etf. Yeah I pyramid all the time, I always pyramid into winners, that’s how you build size in something, you don’t go 100% short out of the blue. No, you start in, as it starts working you lower your stops, you add more, then as it starts working you lower your stops, you add more. That’s how you do it, when I use size I always pyramid it, I never do it out of the blue.
  • No I never average down. You should only average up, you should pyramid up not down, if you pyramid down you’re gonna blow up sooner or later, that’s just how it is.
  • JNUG this is incredible, look at the daily chart looks like it’s barely up but it’s up 40% on the day, that’s how beaten down this thing is, 40% move looks like nothing.
  • NUGT orhs, I should have bought that one, it’s up 25% from there, and building hls, this thing could be up 100% from orh before day is over. Omg and DUST, I’m trading the wrong instrument today.
  • Not a lot of things to do right now, everything is trading very correlated, there’s no point in looking at individual names at this point. Rn in this kind of market environment, it’s more important to get the overall market direction right, rather than buying the right stock. So it’s better to do etfs only.


  • I have like a hundred trading books, these are the best: HTMMIS, Reminiscences, Market Wizards, Trend Following.
  • Who the f*ck eats bats?
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