81 [$TVIX INSANE volatility. Down $500K to…? Mar 9, 2020]

  • TVIX, I had some over the weekend, not happy about that one, I shorted 15k shares late day, caught a nice fade, covered up 11k shares, held 4k overnight, I’m down like 500k on those shares, just incredible, prob biggest range ever this TVIX. TVIX showing rw compared to SPYs, building lhs intraday. Holding 10k shares short looking to add but waiting for some kind of setup, not going to add randomly. Looking for it to maybe fail at vwap or something, looking for some kind of weakness, or downside range break or something like that to add. With these kinda candles I’m not gonna play around. Not a supply and demand play obviously but still a lot of room down. Covering a little on bouncing, will add back if it takes out lods. Fading, added back and will start covering into flushes from now on. Is showing some premium unwind now, can clearly see the rw, is hitting lod with SPY not near hod, next time SPY bounces, TVIX is gonna take out lods in a flash. TVIX there is a good r/r add here, 239s with a $5 stop, but no I’m not gonna add to it I have 17400shares, I just can’t, I’ll get a heart attack.
  • APT and CODX, plan was to add a bit more today if it goes red but I’ll prob ignore them. Too many things going on, can’t focus on everything, these things are on SSR also so v hard to short. I held about half size over from last week on both.
  • INO shorted a little bit premarket, unfortunately I sold all before close Friday, what a home run this would have been. INO fading. INO looking to add more to this, wouldn’t be surprised if this fades sub 14 or something today. INO got short some more shares. Holy sh*t INO tanked, need to cover some, omg what a tank. I wish I’d got more shares. Covered about 1/3 INO so far. INO now bouncing here. Also INO increased their ATM fromm 200M to 250M, they’re cashing in. Some of these Corona names starting to come back, we’ll see how this INO acts here, it’s now about vwap. INO nice, gonna cover some from adds near vwap. Built another lh that’s a good sign. If INO reclaims vwap gonna get rid of position, removed one of my stop levels on it. INO still building lhs. I covered all my adds that I reshorted when it re-failed at vwap, but still have a core of 50kshares. Omg it’s so beautiful, I need to cover some more omg. I could have done so much more size in this INO but it’s so hard to do when you already have a bunch of size in a bunch of stuff, so much going on at once. And just like that INO 300k trade boom, I’m covering more down to 20kshares I just covered up most. I think it has more downside but just cutting through all support, wanna play that game I’ll just cover on the way down, has no bids incredible. Have 10% left, it’s down 51% from the highs now, insanely large move. INO nice bounce here, maybe get another short entry on it, if it can bounce back to mid/high 14s that could be an insanely good shorting opp, if it gets near vwap.
  • Oil down 30%, wow GUSH is down 70% are you kidding me. I’m gonna do GUSH long instead of DWT short. The percentage move with GUSH could be huge, it could double and still be down 50%. Actually I’ll probably go with DWT just bc I’m afraid with GUSH they’ll liquidate it or something. That’s what happened to XIV, went down 80% and got liquidated. This thing doesn’t have to bounce, these things are mathematically calculated in a way that they’re gonna protect Direxion from loss. Added a few more DWT, short 70kshares now. DWT covering a bunch here. Thinking about adding to DWT if it takes out this 15.17 area, it’s just below vwap, if it fails here at vwap, could be interesting. Added with stop on adds just above vwap. DWT covering a bunch here. GUSH buying 100kshares here just for fun, in case it wants to go up like 50%, just for fun. ERX bought some too, I think I can make 50% on both of these.
  • Markets down halted! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a market halt before, a circuit breaker. That’s what mrkts do, they go from high volatility to low volatility to high volatility, happens all the time. Like 2016/2017 we had mostly low volatility for almost 2 years, then we had a period of high volatility, then low volatility. Now we’ve had a period of very little for 5/6 months, and now we have a period of high I guess.
  • I trade etfs all the time, but right now with so much volatility, there’s no point in trading regular stocks, bc etfs are better. Most liquid and most range. If you wanna play the bounce I think TQQQ one of best ways to do it absolutely. QQQ is showing rs compared to SPYs.
  • These kind of market conditions are really, really good if you can focus on the right things. If you’re a new trader you should probably stay away, just look at the action, watch, just observe. It’s very easy to get into trouble in these kinda markets. I’m now very aggressive because I have some big profit cushions from last week and the week before, I can afford to be a little bit aggressive. But new traders should just stay away or trade minimal, tiny, tiny size. I’ve seen this before early 2018 and also 2015 and 2011 too, but back then I wasn’t really trading these things.
  • It’s all a patience game, I have some really good entries I have some really good entries on a bunch of things, now I just have to wait for things to play out, and manage my risk from here. Like rn I just sized down on TVIX, it took out this little intraday range, lh to the upside, so I size down, I don’t want to get in trouble, easy as that.
  • When I short stuff I usually use lower timeframes, when shorting I usually don’t use weekly charts. But when I go long I use weekly charts all the time.
  • Dude the first two, three years I traded, I struggled. Size or no size, I struggled with everything, so don’t worry about it. To use size you need conviction, if you don’t have conviction don’t do size. Doesn’t have to be more complicated than that. First 3/4 years I did only day trading.
  • So many great looking stocks holding up. Obviously we’re not out of the woods yet, but like, rates have gone down a lot, oil has gone down a lot, these things are great for the economy. I dunno what the media is saying right now probably predicting the eotw, I don’t really follow media anymore, but these things are great for the economy. I’m not bearish here that’s for sure, I think the mrkts chop around for a little while, but I think the next leg higher, into mid year or late year I think we go higher. I don’t think we’re gonna go into a bear market, just too much holding up right now, they just can’t take these leaders down. This recent pullback just reset sentiment basically, reset charts and reset sentiment and also probably some deleveraging.
  • DJ-30 guys you see where this is bouncing, just above the rising 200weekly, this has been support for the Dow Jones this whole bull market, back in 2011 briefly undercut it, 2015 tested it once, 2016 twice, now it’s almost nearing again.
  • AIM is shaping up, big vol too. Could be highest vol day today. Oh man there was a perfect entry here in mid 3.60s, from this tight range after it reclaimed vwap and held above it, and has this high vol perk off support, a good risk reward entry.


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