80 [Will $TVIX be my biggest trade ever? Mar 6, 2020]

  • TVIX most painful thing for me I was long 5kshares early yday now it’s up $70 since. TVIX has to go where it’s gonna go, but it’s gonna have a big unwind. If you look at SPY, the SPYs bottomed here Friday 28th, it’s going lower now but still way above that level. TVIX is up 60% since, so there’s a lot of premium in this thing, this could go to 500 from what I know, but once it starts unwinding, once the markets stop going down, this is going to have an enormous unwind day. This thing can go down 40/50% in a matter of days, back in Feb 2018, TVIX went down 51% intraday. Intraday. It had this big one day move, gapped up the next day then just faded, 54%. It can go much further but also fade big time, I’m gonna look for backside and stay very small frontside if I try it. TVIX this could be the day it goes back to 150. I’m short 7500 shares from orls and I will be looking for more. Couldn’t break below its first 5min candle, is holding rn. These volatility instruments are going nuts, there is some fear building into these things. This is the biggest TVIX move maybe ever, up 400% in 2 weeks. If SPY goes green this thing will go to 140s, come on breakdown already. I’m not going to add I have such a big position, I don’t want to ruin my avg. I should probably cover some but I won’t I’m too greedy, I’m a greedy, greedy mfer, I’m so greedy rn. All I see is if this thing goes sub 150s, all I can see. I’m trying not to look at it, huge swings in my account. Okay SPYs took out hod, I added a tiny bit to my TVIX short, just 5% more to my position. I should probably be locking some in here, but I’m a degenerate, I’m a homerun trader, and I’m probably going to regret it, but I locked in like 100shares of 14200shares. Oh man, it’s kinda scary. It’s one thing taking a big loss, but it’s another thing holding a big profit, especially if it’s a profit that’s bigger than anything you’ve seen before, that’s like one of the most stressful things ever. It’s so scary, but you really need to believe it can go further in your direction. That’s really what happened on TSLA, I was up 650k, I thought it was gonna go another 150 bucks but it reversed back higher, I gave back a bunch of profit. But then I nailed it. But you really gotta believe it will do what you think it will do.
  • INO I bought some of this yest afternoon midday, when it broke out of this consolidation 8.93, I still have almost half my shares. What a beast, raising stop even more, if it goes red I’m out. Wow what a beast, now it’s up 45% from when I bought gotta lock in some, now I sold more than half. INO, guys this is one of the most perfect setups I have ever seen, memorise this. You should take screenshots of perfect setups. You should build a database of perfect setups. You should invest in yourselves. Just take screenshots of before and after. Everything lined up perfectly on this INO. Get some kinda software like Evernote or something, just take screenshots. Before, after, write down your thoughts, observations. You have to train your brains to see these things. Not only the technical patterns but also the psychological patterns. Like what’s going on, whats hot right now, what sectors are going? What’s working, what’s not working? All of these things. INO, looking at it in hindsight, there was a short opp here in the low 12s, 12.20 ish, about half an hour ago. If I hadn’t been long this thing, I would probably have paid attention, it had a big, big push, then you had a pullback, lower highs, then you had a break below this little range with lower highs. That was a good reward, this 12.20 area, with like a 12.60/12.65 stop. Now I’m gonna wait for later in the day.
  • WORK, the breakout was yesterday, now it’s at the lows of yest pretty much. But you know if you really want to get in it, I mean the entry was yest but now I guess you could buy it now, this is pretty much where I entered yesterday. If you really think you have an edge on this thing, sure, it is showing rs thats for sure, it’s almost b/e on the day with the mrkt gapping down, so it’s not a crazy buy here def not. The thing with rs stocks, they can only hold up for so long. If we take another dive lower on the mrkts, all these rs stocks will tank too eventually. WORK stopped out, This is exactly what I’m talking about, choppy environment, dangerous breakouts. This is exactly what’s happening. They look so good, and they get you in, and then they just tank on you, this is exactly what I wanted to avoid. Don’t buy breakouts in corrective markets; remember that mantra. I just get so tempted sometimes, I really get tempted, no bueno. It’s not a breakout type of a market, we’re too early.
  • VITQ had a nice breakdown at low 15s yday, textbook.
  • Yes I use market stops. Always use market stops, otherwise you’ll get into trouble, otherwise you will get into trouble.
  • APT so far bouncing on the daily chart off this rising 10day, and on the 60min chart off the rising 65ema.
  • CODX also bouncing after trying to breakdown, it did kinda try to put in another higher low. They key is to see how this 14 dollar area is, it really needs to get rejected here. They are really building some srs lower highs now. CODX put in a lh intraday, if it takes out that high I will size down, really think could go sub 12/11, obv have to hold over the weekend but just has so much downside from here.
  • NLTX, yep this is AQXP. 2015, it went from like 2 bucks to 56 in two days. I lost 1/3 of my account in like a few hours, trying to short it on day two. I had no idea what I was doing, I was like ‘oh it’s up 1500% in two days it’s gonna go down’.. nope. IT more than doubled. Then I went to a bbq with some friends, it wasn’t a great day, I felt like sh*t. I made so many stupid trades, I made so many stupid trades during my trading career. You know success in trading is really just cutting out all the stupid things. Every year I try to do a little bit fewer of the really dumb things, and more of the good things.
  • I use mostly the daily chart, and if it’s interesting on the daily chart I’m looking at the 60 min chart, and if it’s interesting on the 60 min chart, sometimes I use the 5 min or 1 min charts to get a little bit higher resolution.
  • AMD, is nothing like is was 20 years ago, the float is much higher now, compared to 05 and 00 when it was 40 bucks. Mcap is way higher now than it was back then. You can’t look at price levels from so far back, it’s totally meaningless. Indices yes, but individual stocks, it’s dangerous to look that far back, it’s usually a completely diff company.
  • Trading is so binary. You have weeks and months that are like watching paint dry, and then you have days and weeks where you need 2 heads and 6 arms, and 5 brains, my brain is fried these past two weeks. I don’t take vacations, if I’d missed last week.. I made more money last week than I did last year.
  • VIPS, yesterday gapped up on earnings, I saw the orh breakout, and I saw the intraday breakout, it’s holding up like a champion. This is one of the most powerful growth stocks I’ve ever seen, from 2012 to 2015 this thing went up over 4000%, it had some insane numbers, it grew both eps and rev like 3/4/500% for years. It was incredible, I’ve never seen a growth stock like that, I wish I could trade back then, I had no idea how to trade back then. But study this move. Now it’s more of a GARP name, growth and reasonable price, it has decent growth, and it’s kinda low valuation.


  • No I don’t do any investing, I don’t see the point. I just want to focus on one thing that I do really well, and that’s trading.


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