77 [Is TESLA setting up for antoher pullback? Mar 3, 2020]

  • Markets gapping up, 2 day bounce so far, hopefully this bounce continues.
  • TVIX short from yday, if we bounce a bit more this thing will be sub 80 in no time. TVIX needs to break this 96.60s area. TVIX back in range, potentially willing to trade later in the day if it rebreaks this 96.50 area mid/late day. Damn I missed this break down level.
  • TSLA I still have 1k shares short, only regret is I never covered these, gave back about 200k, but good news is I think it’s gonna mean revert lower. It’s gapping up decently in premarket, it’s up 3 days in a row. I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing goes red today and I’m positioning myself for it. I shorted a little premarket and I’m willing to add more; orls, lower highs, range break to the downside – the usual stuff. Premarket highs going to be my stop for all my shares. TSLA added some anticipating orls. TSLA fading nicely, short 3kshares overall, I would not be surprised at all if it goes red today. TSLA if it bounces back to vwap and fails I may add more. TSLA testing vwap, if it takes out hods I will cover most. TSLA so far rejected, added a little bit gonna use this high as my stop. Woah FED reduce 50 basis points, what a candle, stopped out of some TSLA now very strong, did get rejected off vwap again so maybe we get another add spot later. If it falls back below vwap and can’t get over it I’ll add back what I covered, as long as it doesn’t take out hods my thesis is intact. Now testing vwap again, I did add back some of what I covered but I’ll add more later if it hold below. TSLA solidly below vwap, maybe if we get a rangebreak to the downside later after a series of lhs. Now it’s building range here as you can see 775, and it’s building lhs. So if it can break below this range later in the day that could be an add spot, but rn I think it needs more time.
  • TQQQ holding up, still keeping this low as my stop, I sold 500 small shares yday still have 6500, unfortunately I got shaken out late day Friday on a bunch but that’s okay. Seeing a lot of gaps and fades today. This is what I was afraid of, getting long individual stocks, like I have long exposure with TQQQ and short TVIX, but I don’t have many new long positions that are individual names. I think we need to see more sideways, and maybe retest of the Friday lows. Need more bases, pretty much, bc right now I think we’re very vulnerable to pullback. TQQQ got rejected at this 65ema.
  • CODX annoying I thought it was gonna go sub 12 yday but instead it went to 18, I was up 200k on it and then it turned into a 40k trade. Gapping down quite a bit $2.5. CODX has SSR on so hard to short into weakness, only got filled 1/3. CODX is right at this 60min 20ema, needs to break lods for me to add. CODX looks like it held this support area, I just got stopped out half my adds. CODX looks like it wants to go higher for now, so far just acting like SPCE was tried to break down found support then bounced higher, and it was several days of that kinda action before it finally cracked. CODX above vwap but has been building lhs on the 1min, if it starts taking out 14.30 and stay below would be a good sign. CODX below vwap now, I did add some. So far CODX just building lhs, all through ah and pm just been lhs. CODX cover this, not going lower for now at least, doing exactly what SPCE did, once it breaks that low 14 area I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing is down 40% in a day, but rn gotta be patient.
  • APT maybe a bounce watch but not rn, ideally it goes 11s or 10s or something. APT looks like it’s bouncing already, I really wanted it to go lower. APT yeah it bounced, it put in a higher low compared to yest off this rising 65ema on the hourly, and it’s bouncing now. Wow orhs would have been nice, APT came down like 70% from Friday’s highs, this thing could easily bounce back to 18/19 or something. APT just bounced off its rising vwap.
  • AHPI down another 27% today, can you believe that, and this thing has room to like 8.50 today that’s the crazy part.
  • STNE starting to move, just taking out a long long range. I know I said no individual names but this thing looks great, one of the strongest stocks in the market and it is up on earnings. Finally coming out of this long range been building hls for over a year and right about to hit aths. Brazil overall has been weak this past 3 months, but this STNE has just been going sideways and up, so I think it really wants to go. I’ve bought 10k shares, I’ll put my stop at 43, if this thing is really gonna go it shouldn’t pull back a lot. I was talking about not doing any individual stock positions but then I bought STNE, just because it’s showing such relative strength, compared to everything else, it just looks so good. It’s pretty much a 5 star setup it really is. I only wish there was more vol, that’s the only thing I don’t like about it.
  • NIO looks great good here, still holding this big, big flag pattern it’s been in for the past 2 1/2 months. This NIO looks really explosive, it’s just surfing on the rising 50day. I think this thing is gonna go up 50% maybe even 100% once it breaks out of this tight pattern, I really do, it just looks so explosive. I really do, it just looks incredibly explosive this pattern. Like this thing tripled, it quadrupled, it pulled back, now it’s just holding these higher lows. LK too, these are two favourite setups right now, both Chinese stocks. Yes they haven’t triggered yet, ideally I would like to see the market.. idk, if they trigger they trigger. Really you have to use the Chinese market for these stocks anyway. If they trigger they trigger, I’m gonna buy them both. They’re just so good, they’re just 5 star setups, I can’t pass on them. Both building hls and didn’t go down during the China shut down and everything so that shows they wanna go higher. NIO and LK, look it’s not rocket science, they’re flagging and they’re showing relative strength. LK, big ipo base, ran on earnings, pulled back to support, went back into range and it’s just been building hls for the past 3 months and now it has a range here. And the mrkts have thrown everything they have at this stock, China all the corona stuff, they closed lots of businesses, this thing is not moving, China mrkts down, US mrkts down, it’s just holding inside of this range. What does that tell you? Next time the mrkts breathe a little and start going higher, where do you think these things will go? I think they’ll go a lot higher. If they can’t bring it down with all the bad news, where do you think it’s gonna go? Probably higher. Same thing with NIO, one of biggest momo stocks in the mrkt. Had lot of bad news, again it couldn’t go down, they’ve thrown everything at it, it can’t go down, where do you think this thing will go next time it breaks out? It’s relative strength and momo, that’s it. And it’s getting super tight, looks great on the weekly, getting really tight, it’s a five star flag – A stock with high momo, showing big relative strength during a bad mrk period, getting tighter and tighter and it’s building hls, this thing has been building hls for four months, same with LK except this mw report where it briefly undercut but then reclaimed. What does that tell you? It tells you that buyers have been coming in, at higher levels every time this stock dips, which means there’s accumulation beneath. Now obv this doesn’t mean there’s 100% chance this stock goes higher, it only means you will have a very good risk reward spot, with a decent probability these things will go up.
  • How often do I anticipate orls? eh now and then. Idk maybe 30% of the time, idk.
  • I see a lot of stocks that were holding through the pullback, are having some decent down days today. Like SQ, held up really well through last weeks correction, and now it’s about to break down below this flag, not a great sign. Also this DDOG. Just some observations, You know you’ve really gotta notice these small nuances in stocks, compared to the markets, that’s a big edge, if you can read the tape. Spot relative strength and relative weakness.
  • WORK is looking nice, it’s building an ipo base here, looks like it’s found support on the rising 20day, I think once the market has settled, this thing could be good, overall these remote working stocks, like TEAM, ZM, WORK, are just in the same theme, with all this corona bullsh*t people working from home etc, that’s like one theme I’m really keeping track of, these things could really go. TEAM is probably the least exciting of these, it’s a very choppy name, generally it hasn’t had any clean trends, it’s more of a buy on pullbacks kind of a stock, you know buy on support, not a buy on breakout type.
  • VITQ some kind of ev name, reverse merger, something to keep an eye on, damn I missed orhs.
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