347 [Indices strong, BUT running into key moving averages. May 20, 2021]

  • Well we’re back into the old game, we had some fear and then the market is just straight up and now we’re just bouncing back into these declining MAs, the good thing is we built hls on the major indices, now we have to wait until these ranges get sorted out.
  • SPCE looks like just a dead cat bounce, it’s in the gutter, you rarely get EPs when a stock is in the gutter.
  • BTX, I don’t see a bounce here I just see steady liquidation, it can bounce but something like this doesn’t necessarily have to bounce, but if it bounces could very easily bounce 50% in a day. If you wanna play this type of setup I mean it has pulled back to the rising 50day, it’s getting tight, I mean it can could work just don’t anticipate a bounce, buy it when it actually starts breaking some of the ranges, don’t anticipate the thing, it doesn’t have to bounce.
  • VIAC, it’s been surfing below the 200day now it looks like it wants a range break here, but I’m not really into these types of setups. This is the type of setup I want [06/01/2021] or this [23/12/2020] or this [15/11/2020] or this [05/02/2021] these are my types of setups, these are the setups where big moves happen. Now, can it go up 20/25% sure but I mean idk.
  • BNTX is breaking out of this range, I would have preferred it to build a tight day today, inside day, but it’s not going it so I’m gonna pass on it.
  • TSLA still super weak, this thing can’t bounce, COMPQ has made a big bounce since yday open, and TSLA is just still below the highs of two days ago, can’t reclaim the 200day, very weak bounce, for now. I’m gonna trail it with the 10day, if it reclaims the 10day I’m gonna cover it.
  • Everything looks like a flag if you look closely enough, we’re looking for very specific setups that give us an edge. We want edge not randomness.
  • The big money is made when the 10day is above the 20day and both are trending higher, generally. It doesn’t mean you can’t make money if you’re a day trader or short term swing trader, there is still opportunities, but I’m looking for the big moves, and the easy money.
  • PATH there was a breakout two days ago [18/5/2021], obviously it’s had follow through since, I passed on it was a little bit too illiquid and I never like when there is very few setups out there, one or two setups means it’s not a great environment, doesn’t mean it can’t work but I passed on it, too random.
  • TYHT, yeah maybe, very very explosive stock that’s true, idk what’s driving this thing but yeah, I think the 20day needs to catch up.
  • GBTC I just wish I had the foresight to buy orhs, at least I did cover near the lows but yeah I just wish I had the foresight to buy, was a great undercut of the 200day and reclaim.
  • If you study history excessive leverage kills it really does, a little bit of leverage that’s not a problem especially if you have very specific exit rules. But if you study all the blow ups in history, they’re all bc they used excessive leverage pretty much, it’s the same thing over and over again. Also the problem with LCTM was they were too big for the markets, they were too big of a fish in too small of a pond, so everyone started trading against them and making things worse, bc everyone knew how they were positioned so it was just like a waterfall. This is why I’m always so careful about liquidity, I don’t want to be in more than 1/2% of the daily volume of any stock in any given day.
  • FUTU it’s holding up better than most growth stocks but it’s still kinda in no mans land, needs probably a couple of weeks to actually resolve it and get above the 50day etc, I would say it’s holding up fairly well.
  • If I would add one more setup? I would probably remove a setup tbh, I have no desire to add another setup.
  • I’m gonna tell you exactly when the market was this slow, I would say Aug-Oct2019 was very similar, range bound, all over the place, then the COMPQ broke out of this range and went on a big big move lots of money to be made there. Then the Corona crash, then straight up action again, then there was a short period last year when things were slow but only lasted like a month or so, and then things picked up again and was another period for enormous money to be made, you just gotta wait these things out, don’t get caught up in these swings one day the market is down next day it’s up, there’s a reason I’m very light, it’s hard to get any conviction like today the indices are up a lot and tomorrow we could be down again, gotta wait until the range actually gets resolved either way.
  • You can just go back look at the Dow Jones, you can see like 1965-1985 that was a brutal time not very trending markets, then you look at 1985-2000 and just free money, and since 2009 lows we’ve also just been straight up, you gotta be aware of the market conditions, especially if you’re trying to have a longer term approach. And obviously during this time there were a lot of stocks that made big moves, this is just an index of 30 stocks. Yeah if you read the market wizards books there were several people that turned like 10k into hundreds of millions bc those were trending during the ’70s, inflation was high and commodities did really well, lot of money to be made, there is always something going on, even if it’s not the stock market, there is always some asset class doing well.


  • I honestly think, there’s a lot of money made by not being a moron. I literally think that.
  • David doesn’t have time to read the instructions on the screen bc he’s on vacation all the time.
  • UFO means unidentified flying object right, could be anything. Like a UFO could be a piece of dog sh*t on the asphalt that has dried in the sun and then a strong wind catches it and it flies up in the air, that’s a UFO.
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