346 [Higher lows or start of a bigger correction? May 19, 2021]

  • GBTC short I think it’s time to cover here, I think it’s kinda overdone to the downside. Looks like I covered it near the lows pretty good, I mean BTC just had a huge huge huge move down, was like down 25% on the day, and it was already down like 30% in the 1.5weeks prior, so I mean it’s pretty much been cut in half the past two weeks, so the odds of it further going down straight down, the odds are not great, things get stretched and r/r shifts and you gotta get out, you gotta book profits. On the long side though it works a bit differently, bc things can keep going higher for longer.
  • TSLA I added more short premarket when it broke this premarket range. TSLA still showing rw just doesn’t want to bounce. Thinking about adding more, maybe if it takes out lods later, just broke below this bear flag, couldn’t reclaim the 200day. Took a tiny loss on the TSLA adds, maybe this is it maybe we’re not gonna go straight down, maybe we get a slow bounce or slow grind higher again, and just postpone the pain.
  • TSLA if you study the charts of big runners from the late 90s, they all looked like this, went up thousands of percent in a few years then they just kept going down down down for years on end, so don’t underestimate these things, that’s why if you’re a trader, it’s so important to study history, study how stocks move, uptrends downtrends, it’s the same thing over and over again.
  • SPXL shorted late day yesterday when it started fading, SPYs could not reclaim the 10/20day and they started rolling over, everything else looked like sh*t so what you gotta do you gotta go short. I saw SPYs breaking below this range and getting rejected on the sideways 20day and declining 10day.
  • If we lose the 50day on the SPY things could get ‘spycy’.
  • Not a flash crash but a real washout would be nice, a flash crash is never gonna happen again bc everyone has adjusted their algos, we’re never gonna see a flash crash again in the markets, it happened bc the algos were unprepared, now they all have measures in place.
  • ETHE, the cryptos could be mean reversion plays, they could be idk, they had some panic selling, but not for me, for me would be if this goes down all day today closed weak and then gaps down tomorrow too, that would be a mean reversion play for me.
  • VXX added some, last time we only got a one day move, maybe we get a multi day move. F*ck I only got filled on half.
  • IWN gap down, I took a bigger loss than I had planned for, that’s what happens sometimes when sh*t gaps below your stop, that’s why position sizing is very important. I did sell about 1/4 before the close yesterday, at the same time as I went short SPXL.
  • GLD is outperforming SLV now, I’m in the wrong precious metal. Gold to Silver ratio, idk how to read it. When the graph is going up SLV outperforms? Ok SLV is coming back boom.
  • You gotta listen to the market, the market is gonna tell you, you can’t be 100% sure but it’s never a good sign when you have just one good looking stock. You gotta listen to the market, the market will give you the clues, sometimes it will give you a little bit confusing signs, especially the past couple of months like things look great or things look sh*t, but overall the conditions have been worsening lately over the past month.
  • I just want a directional move that lasts for a few weeks or few months, we’re just not getting it but that’s what the market does a lot of the time, these are the hardest markets to trade. The markets that go straight up like last year are super easy, markets that go straight down like Feb-Mar2020 they’re not that hard to trade bc there’s just not much to do for me personally. The rangebound markets are the worst. The good thing is that range bound markets usually resolve in one of two ways, they either go up a lot or they go down a lot, range bound markets morph into directional markets, and usually it’s up. You gotta wait it out.
  • BNTX is the type of setup I like, this one is one of the few outstanding stars rn, and MRNA both holding up really well, they just can’t bring it down, Nasdaq had some weakness yesterday and today and these things just still build hls, back into this range here, exactly what you want to see. Yeah only game in town, but the markets keep showing weakness and these things just keep bouncing back, and once the markets pick a direction, these things are gonna explode.
  • You can see the strong things really standing out on a day like this, not that it matters yet bc I don’t think any of these stocks are ready to make any big moves, but you gotta pay attention, rn I’m heavily net short but I’m still looking for all of these signs, I’m always listening to the market for signs. That’s what you should always be doing, never get comfortable in a position, always look for signs, always listen to the market.
  • Sitting in front of the screens is the last thing I want to do, it’s for losers, you gotta make the market work for you, you don’t work for the market.
  • IGV has been building hls for a long long time, just kind of needs to tighten up here. This is a proxy for a lot of the stocks like growth software names, the biggest leaders, it’s holding up great, these are the signs you gotta keep track of, if it can keep going sideways and tighten up in this low/mid 300 range for a few weeks, could have a great flag, a rocket launch site.


  • Pradeep does a lot of other stuff too, he trades with a small account, he doesn’t scale his account the same way, he trades for cash flow nowadays, so he can afford to go very heavy in one stock, bc he has a lot of side businesses, from what I’ve understood he has a lot of franchises and stuff, owns a lot of restaurants or car shops or whatever it is, he has a lot of stuff going on the side, it’s not like most of his net worth is in this and he has bought a few houses too. It’s not like me where 95% of my net worth is in my accounts.
  • Anytime you lose money on anything it’s your fault, no one else’s.
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