337 [Very cautious here. BUT Russell is holding up well. May 4, 2021]

  • BTX got stopped out on this annoying late day run yesterday, now it’s gapping down, if this thing had gapped up $20 I would have done insane size on it, but now it’s gapping down it’s gonna be a tricky one, bc you don’t know if it’s gonna fade or rally out of the gate. I hate when they do that, it’s the same thing that happened to IGC back in 2018, insane parabolic setup, late day rally and actually it was higher in AH, then it faded PM opened way lower, but it still faded a lot, but it was a bigger move up 3000%, BTX up 2000%.
  • BTX I really hope it rallies back to that 70s area, or maybe idk, I’ll prob do some orls. Okay that was a fast move, no, I got like 1/10th position on. I should have been more aggressive no. BTX looks like it’s bouncing, let’s see if gets to the low 62s, I’m gonna get to half size if it gets there, volume is dying off, not gonna go to full size on this thing.
  • I saw the Magnus Carlson video, insane, that’s what happens when you really put your mind to something, don’t be a f*cking loser all over the place so you don’t get good at anything, there’s people running around doing a little bit of this bit of that you’ll never get good at anything. If you really focus on one thing, you can be the, I mean you don’t have to be the best in the world but if you can be the best at what you do man, you’re gonna be in such a position of strength. Most people don’t master anything, very few people might, and it doesn’t have to be something professional, but most people don’t ever really get truly great at anything, they kinda go with the flow.
  • TQQQ got rid of, it’s losing the 20day and yeah not gonna stick around.
  • BNTX could be a mean reversion short here. The most profitable day trading setup playing out on BNTX for those paying attention here. That was a big opp, a million dollar opp that I screwed up, I was even looking at it in the 210s here a few mins after the open. That’s the thing with these 5* parabolic setups, they don’t come around that often so many times you kinda get rusty.
  • SPXL I did short a truckload. The SPYs had very very long move now starting to roll over again, maybe we get a pullback to the 50/100day would be nice, everything has just felt so tired. Hopefully we get a washout, get the tiredness out of the market, the lower the better. The best money is out of corrections, hard money is for losers, I want the easy money, but to get the easy money you have to wait.
  • Some of these fuel cell names, they couldn’t get enough of these things like PLUG in 60s/70s now they can’t get out of it fast enough, FCEL, QS, CCIV, they had dead cat bounces a few weeks ago, continued selling. This is what happens when you buy a concept stock at like 80B mcap, same with QS 45B just insane, trading vehicles only.
  • PRPO, I can’t trade these low priced ones, but I guess yeah sure. Shorted some. When you get something this extended, in this case it was day two but it was [up 400%] you wait for the weakness, you don’t try to find the top, you wait for when things really speeding up and then you wait for weakness. I kinda anticipated this first red 5min candle, I shorted in the low 8s/7.90s area. Let’s see if we can go back to 5s. My stop on this was like 15% but you gotta go for accuracy, something like this is very high winrate, and again it’s not like I did some crazy size, if you get stopped out, you start small right, first time I never go big, I do like half size or whatever. And if it had stopped me out taken out this 9 and gone to 11/12, then you look for a new setup, and now the setup is better so you can do more size, you can risk more and have an even better expectancy, that’s how you trade these things.
  • A lot of people freaking out like is there a recession coming, no it just means stocks don’t go up all the time. Is there a recession coming? Maybe, who knows, but that’s actually irrelevant, what you need to pay attention to is how the stock market actually works. That means you need to study, not trade, study. Once you get an understanding of how stocks move the you can start trading, otherwise you’ll just be another victim.
  • DOGE still going up, 80B mcap, that’s where all the speculation money is going rn, that’s called momo guys, if you learn how to trade momo you’re set for life. This is literally a joke, trading at 80B mcap. And it’s the same thing over and over again. It had two htfs, one here surfing the 10day, and now it broke out of this flag last week, had this big orderly pullback, undercut the 20day, reclaimed, started getting tight, you see the pattern.
  • Human psychology, people are literally willing to put their money in anything, as long as there is promise of upside people don’t really give a sh*t about risks, people only think about the upside, when in reality you should actually think about the downside first, and the probability of that upside.
  • VXX UVXY thinking about going long some, not yet though.
  • If you’re a daytrader there’s usually things to do, at least near the open, but if you’re a swing trader there’s nothing here to do, you may as well take the day off, go study, do something productive, the most important thing is to preserve mental capital, stay positive stay healthy, let most market participants wear themselves out, then when it’s time you can come back and be aggressive, you’re gonna be in a position of strength. That’s how you win the game of trading, you have to do some things differently.


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