317 [Semiconductors nice follow through. Apr 1, 2021]

  • TSM gap up, beautiful, I couldn’t resist I went full r*tard in the semis, I couldn’t resist, I know I said I wouldn’t do it but I did it. But I’m prob gonna sell TSM and get into MU today, looks better. TSM I don’t like that it’s getting rejected into this declining 50day, while the other semis are going crazy, I don’t like that.
  • MU, look at the estimates on MU for the next few years, insane. About 10% of the avg daily volume a few mins in, that’s pretty good. Got stopped out of my starter, I wanted to add orhs but it stopped me out, I did anticipate it, sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn’t. Ok I’m like 60% long in semis now. MU volume so it’s about 20% avg daily volume 18 mins in, so yeah could be bigger but yeah, also these mcaps they usually don’t have super like it’s different with small/microcaps, those things can trade hundreds or times the avg daily volume on a good ep, a lcap won’t do that, a good ep on a lcap might be 2/3/4x and still make a very big move. MU is pretty much a mcap and these don’t usually have as explosive volume, if you go back a few years the biggest volume days they’re like 2x the avg daily vol or so.
  • MU came very close to stopping me out, but like we’ve seen before, some of the best setups either go right way straight up, but sometimes they don’t and they’re very close to stopping you out, and sometimes they stop you out and then go. Like SHOP [15/06/2020]. AMD [26/7/2018] this was an ep and htf breakout also, I had a lot of size, this one stopped me out then it reversed and went straight up and I hesitated never bought back, look at what it did.
  • TIGR already up almost 30% from the entry yesterday, this is why high ADR stocks are so good, you won’t get moves like this on low ADR stocks. TIGR is failing, getting rejected off the declining 20day, so again the weak stuff I’m gonna size down or sell.
  • QS, these types are tricky the ones that are inside of a range, just like CHWY yesterday, I’m very cautious of those types of EPs that kinda gap up into MAs, I prefer the EPs that gap up to new highs or over longer consolidations, those are the ones you want.
  • PDD looks good, bounced perfectly off the 200day.
  • Sometimes you can go full r*tard if you do it correctly, like for eg, if all these stocks close very weak today, I’m gonna get out of them, if you use margin they have to work in your favour immediately, otherwise you size down, or you’ll be toast eventually, you want immediate follow through when on margin. I have no sentiment on these stocks, they’re just trades. When I’m on margin everything has to act perfectly, the ones that don’t I’ll just get rid off. Eg. AAL and JETS, if they don’t close strong today I’m just gonna sell them, even if they don’t stop me out, or at least size down, there’s no point in me holding them, when so many other things are having follow through. I use margin to make money, not to have a bunch of stocks in my portfolio that are not doing anything.
  • CLF is still a valid ep, nothing wrong with CLF, I’m in from before [pocket pivot 26/3/2021] but even if you bought it yesterday orhs it looks fine, kinda testing these rising emas on the 60min, nothing wrong with it, have some patience, wait for the close. Obviously if it closes near the lows of yesterday that wouldn’t be a good thing, I would consider selling/sizing down, but as long as it closes like this it’s fine.
  • DISCA getting rejected at the declining 20ema 60min.
  • Pocket pivot, it’s pretty much a breakout inside of a range, it happens inside of a channel, like this PINS yesterday, kinda broke out had this range expansion candle, hls had this range and broke out of this right range, this mini range here, that’s a pocket pivot, like an early breakout. TDOC I bought [05/01/2021] still inside of this range here but breaking out of this mini range, like an early anticipation breakout.
  • Pocket pivots in the book ‘Trade like an O’Neil Disciple’, so their definition is up and through the 10/50day or both on above avg volume. In or out of constructive basing patterns, you want to see tightness, hls, rs. Should have strong fundamentals, depends on your timeframe, but you can trade this setup too on pure momo, but in that case the hype is the fundamentals. You need to wait for the hls to occur, you always want to see hls before you buy a breakout, a pocket pivot or a base breakout. You want the stock to be above all the MAs, or most of them at least, though there are again some exceptions.


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