• TKAT working nicely from the short, I added midday when it reclaimed vwap and then started failing vwap, wish I’d added here too when it took out this range. Will see if we get sub 40. Lowering my stop on TKAT now, this thing can’t get up for air, it’s relentlessly building lhs.
• TKAT the setup was, so this thing went up 2300% in two weeks on nothing, just hype just a pump, the company said they didn’t even know why the stock was up. So what’s the setup here? You know the fundamentals, you know it’s just a matter of time until gravity sets in, not like they cured cancer of something, so I wait for the setup. So it had a first leg higher, went sideways for a few days, had another leg higher, yesterday was day2 of the second leg higher, so that’s the setup, and then you wait for weakness, lhs, vwap fails, etc.
• TKAT same setup as GME pretty much, it had the first big pop, went sideways for a few days, then it had a second leg, and it was on day two on the second leg it topped. Same setup exactly, and then you wait for weakness, you wait until the stock stops going up, but you always wait for at least the second day, every time the stock goes sideways it resets the count. You always always wait for the second day, and the ones that have a second leg higher, those are the best ones, those are the highest probability. And some also have a third leg higher, it all depends on how big the move is, 2300% in two weeks on nothing that’s a huge move.
• Then you have something like LAZR, wasn’t as big of a move wasn’t even 400%, but this one had the first leg higher, second leg higher but it wasn’t a big move so there was no setup here, was only up like 90% the first two legs, then the third leg higher it had 1,2,3, and topped on the 4th up day. So you kinda have to use some experience and some common sense, like when is it starting to get extended? You have to see, what count of the day is it? How many legs higher has it had? How big is the percentage move? And also what’s the news, what’s the story? If it’s a company that legit cured cancer it may not be a good short setup even though it’s up a lot, but a stock that’s up on nothing other than crazy people chasing it, and the company says they have no idea why the stock is up, well it’s kind of a no brainer story/fundamental wise.
• The best times are when both the 10day and 20day are strongly trending higher, and the 10day is above the 20day, those are the best times for breakout traders, that’s where the big money is made. The market goes up 20% you should be up 200%, if the market is up 50% you should be up 500%, bc that’s where the easy money is. Rn we’re in a sideways chop, but COMPQ is flagging nicely, is in a big big flag. Gotta wait for the COMPQ to actually start breaking out, that’s where we’re gonna have a lot of breakouts in individual names too and hopefully follow through.
• DLPN gonna watch it on the short side, just like TCAT yesterday, wish I had done more size. Had I realised DLPN was nft yesterday I’d have bought it orhs, I thought it was some random pump. I only shorted like 1/4 size, it was way thinner than I thought it was gonna be. Okay let’s see if this DLPN can fail at vwap. Looks like I got stopped out, I’ll retry tomos. Okay now hopefully we get a bounce on DLPN back to near the vwap. I need to do a lot more size on it.
• AMAT bought breakout, is incredibly strong, LRCX is not as strong. In a good market something like these things would have made big moves, bc everything is there; there’s a fundamental story, the technicals are there, showing a lot of strength, but in this market it doesn’t matter. I have to rebuy AMAT, it’s that good of a setup, and when I rebuy it, it’s gonna stop me out again. I also think this thing has not only the momo and relative strength but also a fundamental thesis with all the chip shortages all over the place. Anytime you’re a manufacturer of something, where there is insane demand, and you can’t meet the demand, that’s usually a pretty good thing for the manufacturer, bc they can raise the prices, sometimes by a lot and increase their margins sometimes by a huge amount. And the technicals agreeing with you, well that kinda sets up the perfect story.
• WKEY, I would prefer more of a range on the 60min, but yeah these things can go at any time just look at ZKIN, they stop you out and then they go, so tough to trade.
• Yesterday someone didn’t understand why I was short TKAT but long ZKIN at the same time in the same sector, well bc of setups. TKAT had a short setup and now it’s down a lot, ZKIN is at new highs pretty much, you gotta take setups. If you trade stocks in the same sector, that’s how they do like they push each other, one starts running makes a big move then a few others start running, then the first one takes a breather, pulls back, that’s how they do, they don’t have to trade exactly the same every day every tick.
• My shorts are having follow through which probably means one of two things will happen; one new my longs in AMAT and LCRX will stop me out, or two, my shorts will stop me out, or actually three my longs and my shorts stop me out, that’s what sounds like will probably happen bc that’s what the market does. The market will find and take your money guys, the market is the most innovative thief ever, it’s gonna take your money, gotta protect it.
• FLGT looks great, it’s a 5* setup, amazing setup, one of the fastest growing stocks, look how tight it is, look how relentlessly it’s surfing the 50day, but in this market idk, if this thing broke out 4months ago it would easily 2/3x on a setup like this, actually it did breakout of a setup 4months ago and it did 2/3x there you go.
• W it’s prob gonna stop me out, gonna move stop to b/e, I don’t like the fact the shorts are working this well. Oh no, why can’t something I get stopped out of just keep going. That’s the worst thing.
• Chill, you don’t have to trade every day, the big money is not made every day, big money is made when the times are good for swing trading, every day is an opportunity to lose money not to make money.
• CRTO yeah it’s basing nicely, and it had an ep a couple of months ago I guess it was earnings related.
• VIAC and DISCA, I guess this sector is pulling back also now, what a move, spot the setups. This was a 5*, and then it had like a mini flag here would have been better if this one went off the 20day instead of the 10day, but just look at how it’s surfing the 10/20day, and now it’s right on the 20day, see if it can hold here. VIAC also had a decent setup here [4/2/2021] and here [6/1/2021]. VIAC what a candle, broke the uptrend and now it has no bids, this is how momo works.
• When a sector is setting up and many stocks have a good setup, the ones that have the most momo and the highest ADR, those are the ones that are gonna make the biggest moves generally.
• AI, I don’t want to look at it, this was too like a weak stock, bear flag, like this is the opposite of a htf, this is a low tight flag. I shorted on this day here [17/3/2021] and if you look at the 60min it had this sneaky rally before the close and stopped me out.
• SNOW look at this too, has to be one of the most bloated stocks out there rn, PE I think it was 150/200x sales.
• SE wow yeah that’s a beautiful one, look at the tight days it had before this breakdown. Lot of breakdowns everywhere, all the darlings getting murdered, that’s what happens, stocks that make big moves higher, will also have big drawdowns. It’s not a certain thing which stocks will be the leaders on the next bull run, could be some other types of stocks in some other sectors, there’s no guarantee of any of these stocks coming back for air for years, years. Momo can be traded both ways, but I prefer long side, bc it’s much easier, and much more profitable.
• How else will you know what setup works well if you don’t do the study, most people just jump in, follow some random people on the internet who have no clue what they’re doing, how many people go back and actually study how stocks move, what they move on? That’s your edge, you do something differently that 99% of other people are not willing to do, and you will have different results than those people, that’s the whole point.
• Unfortunately, no matter how much you study things, there’s always gonna be a struggle, periods like this for eg, I’m not pretending I’m killing it rn I’m not, I’m probably in a 15% drawdown from the highs 2/3weeks ago, I went from being up 130% ytd to maybe up 100/90% ytd, still pretty good but I’m in a drawdown, that’s what happens, you’re gonna have drawdowns and it’s never fun, but once you realise it’s just a normal part of the market, you’re gonna be fine. Bc when a new trader kills it in the market and then goes into a drawdown, many people just freak out, but I know I’m gonna make a lot of money again, I know there’s gonna be at least a couple of more nice bull runs this year, bc most years, even the worst bear market years, usually have 3-4 bull runs, and a normal year usually has like 4-5 decent bull runs.
• MARA omg this is a beautiful setup, RIOT is not looking as good, but this MARA setup, especially if it can go sideways a fmd, this thing looks pretty beautiful. SI not bad, would be like a 4.5* setup tomos if it stays like this.
• CPNG looks interesting, hls, mini ipo base, very hyped ipo it’s like the AMZN of South Korea.

Misc:

• Thomas Bulkowski, he’s done a lot of statistical analysis on different setups, the only thing you need to know is that the best pattern is the htf, focus on htfs, the most profitable setup.
• I’m either Jesus, or Kris the piss. I’m bald jesus? The wickman? I sacrifice my hair for your sins, exactly. David’s son? John wick? QLM?
• Hung like a horse? I have to google that I don’t know what it means. Ohh, okay, I take it as a complement.

#shorting #masterclass