311 [Not great action beneath the hood right now. Mar 23, 2021]

  • AMAT relonged yesterday, also bought LRCX, also watching MU, this sector is relentlessly building hs, and the chip shortage is gonna last for a while, I’m reading every day about auto manufacturers shutting down plants bc they don’t have the chips, and it’s one of the strongest sectors.
  • There’s two types of stocks I like, frauds and global leaders, those are the stocks that make the biggest moves in the stock market.
  • TKAT was thinking about short but feels like it wants to go to 100 first. TKAT, tried some starter size, if it gets back closer to vwap I’ll add more, in like 1/4 size rn.
  • GRWG needs time, it had an entry point here [9/3/2021] where it bounced off the 100day, now it needs more time.
  • ETSY bought breakout.
  • ZKIN would buy the dip, actually I am buying it, looks just like YVR looked yesterday.
  • HUYA, DOYU, the numbers on these china gaming streaming services are really not good, this is not what you wanna see on a growth stock. Look at the numbers triple digit eps and rev growth, the rev growth triple digit to high double digit to mid double digit and now it’s in the low double digits, and they actually had some kind of loss, they went from having profits to losses, that’s not a good thing, opposite of what you wanna see, and it’s reflected in the price action too to some extent.
  • Okay looks like the crypto trade’s falling apart one instrument at a time, gonna get stopped out of GBTC. I also got stopped out of CAN yesterday, gave back a lot of profits, thing went down 42% from the highs, guess I should have used the 10day as my trailing stop.
  • That’s the problem, the second you start using the 10day it’s gonna close under stop you out and then go straight up, then the second you decide to use the 20day, you wish you had used the 10day. There’s a reason why 99% of traders don’t make it, bc it’s such a mindf*ck, trading will be the biggest mindf*ck you ever encounter in your lives, and the best traders are the ones who handle getting f*cked the best.
  • ARKK I don’t like that it keeps getting rejected on the 20day, NIO same thing, TSLA same thing, a lot of these former leading stocks, now we do have some new leading sectors but it’s just not, I don’t like that, if all of those things take a leg lower it’s not gonna be good for the market, for the other sectors that take the leadership.
  • There’s several ways you can do it, you can be quicker at taking profits if you want to, I don’t generally recommend it, I think it’s better to trade less than to alter the trading style, bc it’s gonna f you up, bc once you get into good times again you’re gonna regret selling things too early. It’s gonna be a double mindf*ck, trading is a bit mindf*ck already, altering your trading style is just gonna make things harder imo. I think it’s a better exercise just developing patience.
  • How to develop patience? It’s part experience, bc once you get f*cked on enough mediocre setups in not optimal market conditions you will kinda like enough is enough. And it’s also partly like having a balanced lifestyle, having other things to do than trading, going away and doing something else, it’s not productive sitting and looking at the screens non stop for 7/8hours, unless you’re studying past setups, that’s what you should be doing, especially after the first few hours of the open, doesn’t matter if you’re a swing trader or day trader, there are fewer things to do.
  • The weed names I was watching are also breaking down now from the potential flags, APHA, TLRY, MJ, not good, not a great sign, you want stock after stock, sector after sector to break out, not break down that’s not what you want to see. You want to see breakouts in one sector, then breakouts in another sector, then in another. Rn what we’re seeing is the opposite, we got the bounce, we saw some potential flags, and they’re starting to break down one by one, sector after sector, not what you want to see, you want to see the opposite.
  • But also remember, things can change very fast, there’s still some potential setups, things can change fast you can never really leave the market, you always have to stalk the market, bc things can look like sh*t one day, then two days later you have massive breakouts all over the place, can never really take a vacation, always have to stalk.
  • Oh small caps are the weakest sector, they’ve been leading this whole bull run from early Nov2020, and now they’re the weakest, interesting. Hopefully we get a nice little flush on IWM down to at least the 100day, preferably the 150day maybe the 200day would be nice, get the excessive bullishness out, we can’t have a nice rally before that.
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