313 [If $AMAT and $LRCX don’t double from here I will be very sad. Mar 26, 2021]

  • AMAT, holy sh*t this setup, the rs it’s showing, LRCX too. Look at this AMAT, yesterday put in another hl, LRCX just look at these things, look at the wick yesterday, it closed inside of the range, these things are just incredible. This time around AMAT it showed rs yesterday, the markets try to go down and this thing is just hanging out near aths, even with the dip yesterday, built another hl, it’s trying to tell us something, it’s our job to listen. My god these things are taking out highs, woah wish I’d also bought KLAC.
  • So a lot of the former leaders undercut and bounced off their longer term MAs, like PLUG off the 150day, BILI off the 100day, SE off the 150day, so that’s a good sign, but there’s just not many bases yet.
  • DISCA, VIAC, if these things go down a lot today then gap down tomos, could very easily be a mean reversion play, if they both can get to the 100day would be great. DISCA omg, this is what momo is, works both ways, didn’t give us a nice clean rangebreak to short.
  • You tried 5 times shorting it and last time didn’t try? Ik I’ve been there so many times, that’s why I really wait for perfect setups on mean reversions, I miss most of them, but the thing is, it’s so easy to get chopped up many times, and then you give up on it, and then once you’ve given up on it then it works, I’ve been there so many times, that’s why I always wait for those almost can’t lose setups on those.
  • GME yeah what a bounce, this market doesn’t wanna go down, when you see stuff like GME and AMC putting in a bounce, like it wasn’t good enough for my type of mean reversion, it’s only down 2days I usually want more, I would have preferred one more down day.
  • Like stuff like BIDU, it had a first leg lower, then a second leg lower, now it put in a third leg lower and today is the day3 of the third leg, that’s where your odds are good, wait for those different ways. Same principal as when you short mean reversion setups, you want several of these legs higher, then you wait for multiple days, that’s where you get these really good trades with like 80/90% winrate, and you won’t be killed in the process. That’s my preference, I’ve lost so much money on mean reversion I just look for the perfect ones, I have no tolerance for anything that’s not perfect.
  • BIDU stopped out, I went from being up 700k to down 300k, at least I didn’t wick it. Hopefully it goes down the whole day then bounces off the 200 tomos for an even better setup. I did sell 1/6th into strength, I was thinking this thing is gonna go up to mid 200s or something I was already counting my millions, instead I got sh*t in the face, that’s what happens in the markets. I really hope it closes weak today and gaps down Monday, this thing could have a sick mean reversion eventually, look at the selling, they couldn’t get enough of it above 300, now they can’t sell it fast enough, that’s momo.
  • YVR I bought yesterday when it broke this range on the 60min, these things were all flagging yesterday while the markets were down, I thought the speculation money would leave if the markets fade, but obviously the markets didn’t fade they reclaimed, so the speculation money is coming back.
  • JD yeah I mean the entry was yesterday, or at the latest orhs today when it broke out of this highs 80 range on the 60min, but it looks like a hundred other lcap and mcap momo names, nothing special about it, I’d rather wait for setups like flags, triangles, pennants, channels, stuff like that.
  • CAR it’s a beautiful setup, look at how nicely it undercut and reclaimed the 20day and now it’s breaking out of this range, it’s a very clean linear trend.
  • BHC, that was called VRX before, some financial engineering, look at the move it made 2008 to 2015, 3000%, and then it went lower, and now it’s back to where it was ten years ago, and if you didn’t have an exit strategy, well.
  • This Q was awful for EPs, bc we already had a big big run up, and the earnings season lined up with the weakness of the major indices, so there was no momo and a lot of the great stocks were already very extended, there were very few except for this UPST, at least not in lcap and mcap land. Preferably you wanna catch them when they come out of multi month bases, something like when we caught this CELH when it broke out of this big base, or BILI, those are the ones you want to look for preferably, those can be pretty straight forward. Also TDOC 2019, look at this base it broke out of, when you actually get a real breakout on an earnings gapper, those can be really really good.
  • You’ve gotta be able to change your mind really quickly in trading, yesterday I was really bearish I didn’t like anything, everything looked like it was gonna break down and go lower, today I’m buying semi conductors with both hands, if you wanna make it in trading you gotta change your mind really quickly, you can’t fight yesterday’s battles, gotta listen to the market.
  • GSX now it’s finally going down, there may be a mean reversion setup coming up on it, bc it is now down closing in on 50% in a week, I’m gonna start stalking it. These are not something you hold for weeks and months, could be like a few day trade these things can bounce, but you need to see some really extreme selling first.
  • Long works bc companies are cash flow generating mechanisms, that’s why stock markets go up, vs something like commodities that don’t generate cash flows.
  • ROOT the liquidity wasn’t that good so I passed on it, I would have bought it orhs, bc it is a kinda beaten down, high short interest stock, citron was positive, it didn’t gap up much, only gapped up like 5%.
  • BTC is flagging nicely, it tested the 50day, bounced off, ETH not as strong. I think next week we’ll get setups in the crypto related names, I would love to rebuy GBTC, look how nicely it’s building hls, bouncing off the 50day every single time, MARA and RIOT too, I think they need more time.


  • Husky trader chrome add on.
  • Guys what do you think? You don’t get too many opportunities like that. Should I go for it? I sure as hell need it.

#meanreversion #masterclass

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