298 [Bunch of bear flags. Mar 4, 2021]

  • Just waiting for some of these stocks to resolve, like ROKU is it a bear flag or is it building hls around the 50day, too early to tell. Same thing with TSLA, is this a bear flag? Could resolve to the upside or the downside. MRNA too, too early to tell, I think we need a fmd in most of these stocks.
  • APHA was a 5* setup and it reversed. TLRY, MJ also. It’s a very selective market and the fail rate is much higher than it has been, definitely in a hard penny market.
  • GBTC could be one, it’s building hls around the 20day.
  • A good washout would be good, I’d love to see the QQQs undercut the 200day, get a real washout and get some new bases on some stocks, reset the froth reset the sentiment.
  • I think it’s pretty much always better to short these triple etfs than go long them, it just works out better most of the time from my experience.
  • TSLA stopped out of starter adds, still have core from 800s. Added back through lows.
  • AMBA, nice little earnings breakout.
  • LKCO mean reversion setup long today, yeah this was down 50% in four sessions, then it bounced off the 50day, sure it was a setup, orhs, very good one.
  • I’ve traded hard penny markets so many times, it just ends up in frustration. A good market, you’re not supposed to work hard, trading shouldn’t be hard, you shouldn’t be sitting there working your ass off, making trades all the time. You should only trade certain setups, when the conditions are good for that setup. I’ve traded so many of these choppy difficult markets, and even if you make some money it’s barely worth it, bc in a good market you will make more money in a few days than you would make in a few months in a hard penny market, so you may as well take a step back, chill relax, you can do some trades here and there but don’t just constantly look for trades, a good setup, a good trade should be obvious, you’re looking at it like ‘wow that’s an insane setup’, that’s how it’s supposed to be, you shouldn’t be looking at it with a microscope, they should be obvious, screaming in your face. Obviously it takes a lot of experience to get to that point to know which is which, and unfortunately you will have to suffer for a few years before you get to that point, for me it took a lot of years, too many.
  • You shouldn’t struggle, struggle shouldn’t be an aim, you will obviously struggle but the faster you learn to listen to the markets, the faster your suffering will end. Unfortunately I wasn’t too fast, so I had a lot of periods where I struggled too much unnecessarily, bc I didn’t listen to the market, I kept doing the same thing even though it was obviously not working, and slow to adapt, now I’m a little bit smarter bc I suffered too much and I just don’t want to suffer again, I refuse. But there should be no difference between a multi year 55% drawdown [2008/2009] and something that happened like Feb/Mar2020, bc there are very few setups, at least on the long side, but my point is you shouldn’t do anything differently, you should do the same thing.
  • If you’re trading small caps micro caps there is a lot more opportunity, a lot of things working, and again I think you have to be a bit more aggressive selling.
  • FUTU if it loses the 20day does have some downside, the 50day is 33% lower, pretty decent move potentially.
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