299 [Bear flags follow through. Mar 4, 2021]

  • GME actually is a textbook htf, just as it was here in Jan, it’s a htf, but I would prefer a bit more sideways. A htf doesn’t have to be at ath or 52week highs, the important thing is the recent momo.
  • RKT I wish I had sold it all and gone short, it would have been easier if it had gapped up, I hate these when they gap down I just never have the confidence in them.
  • FUTU I missed it, when it started breaking down here on the 60min would have been the short. Whatever, you can’t be in everything.
  • MSTR is a potential bearflag, BTC still looks strong though.
  • So far this earnings season hasn’t really had any good EPs pretty much, due to two reasons, we’ve had already a year long run where the markets have been almost straight up, all the interesting stocks have already made big moves, and two we are in the midst of a market pullback. Most of them are gapping down and most that do gap up, they just fade.
  • Airlines, I wish I’d bought them when they broke their ranges a couple of weeks ago, DAL, UAL, SAVE was beautiful breakout 5* but it was too thin [2/2/2021], AAL I was watching but never pulled the trigger.
  • O&G names also strong, XOP we bought on a perfect breakout [5/1/2021] but unfortunately not in them anymore, GUSH also 5* breakout [5/1/2021], if you keep trading 5 star setups you’re gonna have 5 star results.
  • TSLA yeah added a little bit more yesterday, but if it closes strong today gonna cover yesterday’s add. Added orls when it started breaking down below this little flag.
  • Overtrading, it’s very very easy to overtrade, I’m an overtrader always been, I would have much much better returns if I didn’t overtrade when conditions were not favourable. Bc you think you’re supposed to do something every day, you’re not, every day is not an opp to make money, every day is an opp to lose money. Trading is not like a regular job, in a regular job you always have to do something, not the case in trading.
  • These slow bleeds, they’re a pain in the ass, you always want the markets to go down fast, that’s why the corona sell off last year was the best sell off ever, it was just straight down, it wasn’t messing around for many months, just down 33% in a month then best bullmarket in 20years after that. Vs something like we had fall/winter 2018, the COMPQ went down about 24% but it took about 4 months was down up down up just chopping around forever, but then after that was a great bullmarket, but the faster you get the sell offs, the better, just wash the bullishness out, when wsb get’s suicidal, that’s when the next bullrun will start, rinse and repeat.
  • ARKK, look at the dollar volume up here over 120, a lot of people bought it up here, it’s the same cycle repeating over and over again, every bull market it’s not unusual for the avg investor in the best performing funds to underperform, bc they bought high and sold low, people follow the crowd, herd animals. Now if you can find a way around that, do things a little bit different in the stock market, have a little bit of independent thought, actually base your decisions on something else than everyone else if going, you’re gonna have wildly different results from them.
  • RIOT short added and reshorted MARA. I think if we keep getting this like we’re seeing a lot of these speculative names deflating day after day, this RIOT could easily fade down to the 50day that’s another 30% downside, MARA too 25% downside, if they stop there could go down to the 100day too. Seeing a lot of these stocks bounce attempts fail now.
  • This is where an edge is, bullmarket geniuses are probably frenetically trying to find new stocks to buy, or holding the high flyers they bought recently that are now down 50-70% from highs, trading with no edge. If you can stay in the game during these periods, stay b/e or lose very little or maybe even make money if you also short, wait for the next bullrun, you’re gonna have an intact account, and intact psyche, and next bullrun you’re gonna 2/3/4x your money again in a short amount of time. Rinse and repeat, that’s what trading is all about, identifying these cycles.
  • I have to say it’s pretty nice your account hitting new highs on a day like this, when you know 95% of the traders that have been pumping their chests especially over the past 4months, a lot of them are in pretty bad drawdowns, that’s the difference, having a strict set of rules, some experience and a setup.
  • There is only one reason to start trading and that is making money, that’s your sole focus, not losing money, making money. Obviously drawdowns are always gonna happen, but many people lose focus, they start buying into these sexy stories and doing what others do, they never even really thought is this something that’s gonna work long term. Took me too long to realise what works and what doesn’t work, that’s why I keep preaching these things every single day, I wish I had someone who told me all these things from day 1, I would’ve been profitable much earlier, save myself a lot of headache.
  • DKNG oh sh*t, this is what happens to breakouts in these types of markets, I went from a pretty decent gainer to hm maybe breakeven if I count the shares I sold into strength.
  • Many breakouts, stuff like PENN for example, if you were early on it you would have made money, if you really want to keep buying breakouts what you can do is sell the first pop, instead of selling 1/3 to 1/2 after 3-5days you can sell 1/2 or 2/3 on day1, you gotta be more aggressive taking profits. DKNG too right, they may pop but then they’re gonna slam down again, and if you want to do really shorter term trading it’s fine you can do it, nothing wrong with it.
  • DISCA also went short, if this pullback worsens they’re gonna come for all these names, some kind of a media stock. It’s not really a parabolic, not that big of a move, but it had a leg higher, another leg higher, another leg higher, another leg higher, that’s four legs higher in four months, and today is day 4 had a reversal candle. It’s a variation of parabolic setup, I would normally not be interested in it but just bc the market is selling off and they’re gonna come for everything if this thing worsens.


  • To me it’s a no brainer, are you gonna listen to some suit on TV, or some guy on Twitch? Which is more legit?
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