271 [Bitcoin nearing the 50-day! Major support? Jan 21, 2021]

  • MARA short 1/2 size working really well. RIOT I also shorted this thing when it had this mid/late day push and started fading off this tight consolidation, I thought it was good r/r, it closed weak so I kept it overnight and yeah I covered a bunch pm. RIOT has incredible downside potential here, there’s no support until the 50day, same thing on MARA.
  • GBTC is gapping below my stop, did close below the 20day but it also closed well above the lods so I decided to hold it, but now it’s gapping down below the day so yeah we’ll see, it’s a tiny position I’m out most, it’s like 20/25% position. Okay GBTC I have no justification of holding it anymore, I’m selling that last partial, it’s way below my stop. BTC is really free falling now, lost the 20day and next stop is gonna be the 50day.
  • BILI closed really weak, this one I’m in only 1/3 size, if it loses the 20ema this thing could finally have a decent pullback. BILI fading nice, I have almost full size on this thing now, added some orls. This is another one could easily pullback to the 20day, maybe even the 50day.
  • PINS I bought yesterday, had a little bit of a breakout, has been surfing these MAs really nicely, had a little bit of a pocket pivot, and inside range breakout.
  • NFLX had some really good follow through, and it also had more volume than I thought it would, so yeah that’s an ep for you, that’s what an ep is supposed to do, it’s supposed to go right away.
  • PLUG unfortunately I got shaken out, it just showed strength one too many times. So PLUG is now right on the 10day, I really hope it bounces here. Took a starter short here on this bounce, if it weakens later today, starts building lhs, takes out a range to the downside, this thing could easily fade back to the 20day maybe even the 50day, so if the market weakens this thing could very easily pullback another 20/30% from here, even though it’s already off the highs.
  • FUBO still surfing the 50day, is it a good setup? Idk, I think it may need more time.
  • LXRX it’s just some random, it had a good setup down here though [8/1/2021] broke out, but now it’s already in the stratosphere.
  • LAZR, idk preferably if it tightens up a little bit, it’s too loose and wide, too random. I was long this thing last week [13/1/2021] but then it had tightness the day before, now it’s too wide.
  • For a breakout setup there needs to be a pre-existing trend.
  • TTD, had a potential setup yesterday, not my type of setup but it is a setup. It’s a stock with a big pre existing trend, pulled back, built a range, got tight and then broke out of this range. It’s one of many ways you can trade momo stocks.
  • QTT, it’s absolutely not a good short setup, one it’s a microcap stock, it’s up a little bit over a hundred percent from this move, I see what you see but this is a horrible horrible short setup, I’ll explain why. If this thing was a $150 lcap or mcap stock that went to $350, that would have been an extremely good short candidate, but this is a microcap stock, this thing could literally go to $7 today. The pattern itself is correct but you have to put it in context, 120% move for a microcap stock, it’s like a 5% move for a lcap stock, it’s nothing, these types of microcaps wait until they’re up like 500% or something, 300%, let it do its thing today and then watch it for tomos, this thing could easily go up another couple of bucks today. Microcaps you kinda need bigger percentage moves, 120% for a microcap it’s not a parabolic, you have no edge shorting a microcap that’s up 120% in a couple of weeks. You need a big edge, and a big edge comes when you get these outlier moves, where all the amateur shorts are getting squeezed out if there are any shorts.
  • OBLN yesterday, this was like a nanocap, today there’s no bids on this thing, but yeah this is an outlier move, it gapped down today, it was shortable orls ofc, I ignored it.
  • DPW that was a good day2, this is what you’re looking for, these outlier moves, another nanocap that’s up over 500% in two days.
  • TNA I’m trying some short again, tight stop, I think if we get a pullback this TNA could pullback easily to the 50day, it’s not a clean setup, I’m kinda anticipating, like a range break.
  • TAL, it’s a tough one, for me an ep is more a stock that gaps up, something you can find ah or pm, but I’m gonna show you a really good earnings ep for TAL that worked out, back in Oct2019. It’s a weird ep bc they had neg eps growth, they actually missed their eps consensus, they beat the rev, and they guided higher, big guidance higher, and obviously the price action trumps the news, it gapped up on big volume, took out this 6month range and look at the follow through this thing had. Made a big move, in like 3months went up another from like orhs, up 37% which is pretty good for a lcap stock. Now, this is an ep yeah but it’s hard bc where do you buy it? Where do you put your stop? That’s why gap ups are so much easier. It would have been so much better if it had gapped up to low 70s and then broken out, but yeah look what it’s breaking out from, this weekly flag, it’s the same patterns, bounced off the 50weekly and now it’s breaking out.
  • VCP pattern, it’s another name for tightening range, it stands for volatility constriction pattern, I call it hls, that’s it, tightening range. So look at something like TSLA, this is what MM does, he looks at this first drawdown 34%, next pullback 24%, third pullback 16%, that’s called a vcp pattern, this is what he does, and then this breakout of the pattern. I make it a little bit simpler, you don’t need to put fancy words behind simple concepts, I call it hls and tightening range, that’s it. Boom, no need to pay 4k for his trading seminar. Exactly, you can’t sell simplicity.
  • You don’t need a trading coach, it’s all a waste of time, guys stop it, you don’t need a f*cking trading psychologist, you don’t need a stupid f*cking trading coach, f*ck off no guys, stop it, it’s bs, your problems stem from not having a setup, if you have discipline problems or this or that it comes from you not having a setup. You don’t know how to implement a setup, when to trade it and when not to trade it, that’s what your focus should be on, your focus should be on studying setups, owning a setup. Let’s say you’ve watched my stream for a while and you’re like oh this breakout setup he keeps talking about a lot and recommending, maybe I should study this thing, maybe I should spend a couple hundred hours going back looking at hundreds of stocks, going back a few decades, and then you look for all the variations of that setup, you confirm it, is this a real thing, and then you look at it, where should I put my stop? What kinda exit rules should I have? I know KK recommends the 10/20day, if I use the exponential MA, this and that, oh I think this works a bit better than what KK recommends, or hey I think the 10/20day works fine. And then you start looking okay what type of market environments do most of these setups have, when do they breakout and have the best follow through? I know KK has been talking about avoiding buying breakouts when the 10/20day sloping lower maybe I should confirm that for myself, hey look it’s right. Forget about all these coaches they’re not gonna help you.
  • I rarely anticipate breakouts, bc the thing is if you start anticipating breakouts, I think it’s a harder thing to do than just buying breakouts, and two as a trader you wanna compound your money as quickly as possible. Something like ENPH, looks like a good setup right, and you can buy it here and maybe use the lows as your stop, but it could take a week before it breaks out, and it may never break out may just break down. It’s just better to wait for confirmation, buy just as it starts breaking, that’s the best time. But sometimes if it’s a really good setup, like really good, I may anticipate with half size or something, but I rarely do that. As a trader if you want to make 800%+ in one year, there’s two ways to do it, one go all in on your fav stock with call options and hope the trade works out, or two if you have an exploitable edge or several exploitable edges, you can aggressively exploit those edges hundreds and hundreds of times during that year.
  • TAN about to go, yeah it’s strong, I’m still short it, yeah I’ll cover while I still have a proit. It bounced off this magic yellow line, just like it did here, and here the 50day, it’s like these lines, there’s something to them.
  • U, shaping up, actually looks like a pretty good ipo flag, had a big big move, surfed the 20day, pulled back, now it’s surfing the 50day, bounced off the 50day twice so far, maybe starting tomos I’m gonna start watching it. PLTR too, this one is also surfing the 50day, it’s been building hls there for a couple of weeks and it’s getting tighter.
  • FSLY, now it’s building a really long base, if it can just let the 10/20day catch up a little it’s gonna be a great great setup, been in this long long base for 7/8months now.
  • TSLA is right on the 10day, really needs to hold here, should I take a starter short just incase it doesn’t, the stop would be really tight like $3-4, like 10% of it’s ATR, I did a starter it’s a low risk trade, just incase it doesn’t hold, just incase. And I’m willing to add to it, if it breaks down a little bit and then rallies and the rally fails, I’m willing to double up on it.

#masterclass #shorting #rant

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