• FNGU going crazy, I rebought it yesterday late day, is bc of NFLX I guess. Initially bought it here when it broke out [24/11/2020] but then I sold it somewhere in the 270s or something bc I thought it was getting extended. Now it’s been surfing the 20day, it’s been bouncing off several times building hls, and yesterday it kinda just looked strong. Was thinking about buying TQQQ also but I was like nah I’ll just buy one of them.
• XP bought yesterday, it’s just breaking out of a long long base on volume.
• GBTC is right on the 20day, if it closes below I will sell. BTC itself is weak today but it is still holding hls, it’s very important it holds here, but I do kinda hope it pulls back to the 50day so we can get some really great buying opps. BTC is still building hls, still in a big big flag, has been flagging for what 2 weeks almost. Sized down on GBTC and if it closes below the 20day gonna sell it, in case BTC goes for the 50day, GBTC is gonna go to the 50day too and I’d rather rebuy it there than hold it and give back a chunk of my profits.
• So MARA and RIOT are pretty much ending their uptrends here, and if BTC weakens MARA could very easily pull back to the 20day or lower. MARA def now looks like it breaking down, it’s on backside and it’s below all of these emas, did partial size. Wish I had been on them orls, would have been a better entry, could have shorted a couple hundred k shares of both of these.
• TSLA kinda breaking out premarket, it’s breaking out of a little flag. I would love for this thing to go sideways, the longer the base the longer the move, to a certain extent, but the best bases are usually 2-3weeks to 3-4months on like momo stocks, excluding the smallest microcap names, but if you look at like mid/lcap the best bases are usually like 1month to 4/5months generally. And if they’re gonna have any juice breaking out of a longer base than that, they usually need some kinda of an ep, some kinda catalyst or news that launches them.
• FUTU yeah it’s getting extended, I cant believe I had it here [5/11/2020] $32, it just had to undercut the 50day, pulled back a little bit too much. It’s getting to a point where it’s not crazy to short it, this is day two after it consolidated for two days, I won’t touch it today but if it has a full day today and then has a strong open tomos that’s something I would be interested in, it’s like a 3.5* potential short setup, could be better for you daytraders.
• NFLX is an ep, it’s gapping up over a 6month consolidation, it’s been building hls for about 6months, had a pretty decent earnings beat, good guidance for next quarter, and it has a gap up, gapping up 14%, this is an ep situation. It’s not the fastest moving stock and most of you should probably pass on it ADR 2.8%, there’s gonna be a lot of eps through the earnings season that’s upcoming, but I’m thinking about doing some. So NFLX has already traded almost half it’s avg daily vol [9:32am], that’s pretty significant I would say. NFLX has already traded almost avg daily volume [9:36am] that is pretty significant [bought orh]. So NFLX has already traded over the avg daily vol, almost 7Mshares, the avg daily vol is about 5Mshares, so it’s almost traded 50% higher than the avg daily vol, that’s pretty significant 9:45am]. NFLX can’t get going yet, it’s hanging out below vwap, the perfect ep is something that just goes and never really trades below vwap on day1, that’s the problem with these mcap ones they may not be super clean. So NFLX is now at twice the avg daily vol [10:06am] but I don’t expect this thing to work, I kinda expect this thing to stop me out, undercut my stop by a few dollars and then makes a rally, bc this thing hasn’t had a good ep for the past 5years, but maybe this time is different. So NLFX looks great, has already traded 3x average volume [10:04am] we’re only an hour an a half out of the open so it’s prob gonna end up 20-25M, so it’s gonna have a big big volume candle, it’s what you look for both fundamentally and technically. So the earnings numbers themselves -8/22 it’s not great but that’s not what’s really driving this stock, the next guidance they’re gonna have triple digit eps growth and 25% rev growth which is really really good for a mcap stock, they beat the analyst estimates, they guided big, like look at the eps guidance, it’s almost 50% above the consensus, big beat on the next Q guidance, and also the numbers for the next year, it’s gonna have some pretty solid eps and rev growth for a mcap. And it’s breaking out of a 6month base where it’s been building hls, so technically and fundamentally it looks good, the drivers are there.
• So NFLX actually rarely has follow through on EPs, last time NFLX had good follow through on an EP was [16/4/2005] where it went up 65% in the next four months, but since then like it had a good EP here [18/10/2016] only went up 4-5days then went sideways pulled back and then it went after it pulled back and stopped you out. Jan2017 had an EP didn’t have follow through, Apr2017 had a little bit of follow through, Jul2017 didn’t have any follow through, Jan2018 it would have shaken you out and then it went. That’s the problem many times with these mcap stocks, they just rarely make these clean moves.
• I only trade fundamentals if it also has a setup, I never trade on base fundamentals.
• SAVE had a setup here [12/1/2021] I didn’t buy it, but it also had a secondary setup like 3days ago [14/1/2021] and it’s just kinda been building hls since then.
• BB was a potential setup, was up 4 days in a row, made an 80% move in four days, this was a potential setup when it started failing vwap, took out orls, but I would have preferred at least one more up day, I’m really looking for those perfect ones where you almost cannot lose, there’s just so many things going on in this market, you kinda have to wait for those perfect ones.
• TRXC now going down, pretty perfect, it failed at vwap a couple of times and then it look out this little orl/little range to the downside, was a potential setup I just passed on it.
• EXPI, has triple digit eps and rev growth, it’s going straight up. This is what happens guys, this is why you should keep track of all of these high growth stocks with momo, they need to be in a watchlist okay, you need to keep track of them, this is the type of moves stocks with triple digit growth do, this thing is up 1000% in like 8months. Another one is FUTU, triple digit eps and rev growth, look at this thing up also 1000% in like 10months. If you’re looking for an edge, one place to start is tracking stocks that have triple digit eps and rev growth, just a hint. TIGR another one, China brokerage, triple digit, since Mar2020 lows this thing is up 600%. Earnings are fuel, yeah you have these random pump stocks that can make big moves with no reason really other than chatrooms/forums pumping these just hype, and those are very hard to predict, but earnings, that’s fuel okay, it’s like rocket fuel. Triple digit eps and rev growth it’s like rocket fuel. These stocks have a reason to go up. One way to trade, you don’t even need to do any scans, just build a watchlist of the 50 fastest growing stocks in the stock market, don’t necc have to be triple digit but everything that’s mid/high double digit eps/rev growth or higher, put them in a watchlist and just look for setups in those stocks, and you’re gonna outperform the market by a wide margin year after year, you don’t need to do any scans at all, you’ll have a big big edge. Now you’re not gonna outperform all the time bc in some markets cyclicals lead, or beaten down stocks, but if you only trade the fastest growing stocks you’re prob gonna do very very well, year after year after year.
• ZI, it’s in a long base, 6 month base, recent ipo, the problem is ZI was at 40x sales when it ipo’s, that’s pretty significant, but this is something that if it starts getting momo, it’s absolutely something to keep track.
• VEEV is breaking out, it’s been surfing the 100day for a while, building hls, it’s a very choppy name it’s a slow mover, but this it called like a pocket pivot, it’s a breakout that’s inside of a base. It’s similar to TDOC when I bought it here [6/1/2021] was the same thing, building hls, kinda breaking out inside of its base, the word for it is a pocket pivot.
• I never go for rebates, only if I’m selling into strength, but if I wanna get in I just get in. I’ve never heard of a rich rebate trader, they’re all scalping for pennies, you can make a choice, wanna go for the breadcrumbs or wanna go for the whole bread? idk if that’s a good analogy, let them trade for the rebates, let them trade the crumbs we leave them. Same thing with scalping, can you make a living off it probably, but you cannot scale it. You’re pretty much always picking up pennies in front of a train, that’s no way to live, I’d rather be the train than pick up pennies in front of it.
• GME, it’s not wrong but long term everyone who bought above 20 is prob a sucker, like it’s back to 2007 levels, this thing has deteriorated by a lot, their business model is just so bad, there’s no way they’re gonna survive. But short term, a lot of money was made, you could have bought at 21, you had a double in a few days.
• I only trade 3 setups and variations of those setups. Tbf I haven’t really talked much about breakdown setups, it is a little bit like a breakout, it’s not like a parabolic, but when you have a stock that’s made a big move and breaking down of a range, imagine we flipped this look at the 60min, it looks like it’s breaking out, it’s building hls, taking out a range and it’s breaking out right, but in this case it’s building lhs, and it’s breaking down of a range. It’s one of the biggest momo stocks, unfortunately I did sell it about 100% too early, when it broke down below the 10day and then it went almost triple from there. It’s a variation okay, variation of one of my three setups.
• BNGO, offering, if this thing cannot rally, if it can’t reclaim vwap and on the 60min this 20ema, I think if it takes out lows later in the day, could be shortable, I’m gonna watch it. It was a decent setup yesterday absolutely, just didn’t breakdown intraday, held the range all day and then it had an offering ah. So if it can’t rally, if it builds lhs and starts fading later, could be a short, good r/r, this is something you can potentially risk 20/30c to make $2.
• SUNW, the breakout here [6/1/2021], that was a good setup, big volume on the breakout, that’s what you want to see on these smaller type stocks.
• EH today is day two, bc here it went sideways for two days, every time a stock goes sideways for two days the counter resets, today is day two, for these parabolics, it’s the second leg, it had a first leg and now it’s building a second leg.
• BILI, I am shorting it, it’s not really a parabolic in that sense but it is getting extended, I think it wouldn’t be crazy if it pulled back a little bit. Pretty much using a $2.5 stop, idk not doing any crazy size, it’s maybe a 3* setup.
• GEVO, the question you should ask yourself if you’re not long is ‘is there a setup here?’ and if you are long ‘what’s my exit rules?’. That’s the question you should be asking, not can it run from here again, that’s not really a constructive question. Any stock can run from anytime from anywhere.
• A normal percent swing in your account, if you’re fully invested 100% long, 2-3% daily is absolutely nothing, just pretty normal, and even bigger ones, even 5-10% swings if you’re either in very fast moving stocks or on margin.
• DT, this is breaking out of a long flag, idk the news but it is kind of an ep.
• FEYE looks good, really good setup, 5* setup.
• SENS also fading, these are good setups, built lhs, lost vwap, and now it’s fading, but it’s low priced, so hard for me to trade these.
• EP doesn’t usually work well in a bear market, bc in a bear market everything goes where the market goes, and usually that’s down, but EP works very well in everything else other than a down market. The only period where EP and breakouts haven’t worked well in the past ten years if these big red monthly candles, it’s only like 5-10% of the time the past ten years. But obv if we get in a real bear market, like ’00-’02 where you pretty much only get these red candles, buying stocks is not gonna work, obv QQQs had a big sell off, but there were sectors that did well, it wasn’t a liquidity crisis like ’07-’08 was where everything went down, in ’01/’02 some sectors actually did well, the sectors that were neglected when all the money went into the hot internet and fibre optics and genomics and what not, so there is a difference between bear markets and bear markets also.
• As the indices are going higher, if you look at the indices you would think like every stock is up a lot, but it’s really not, it’s most of these margin names pushing it, the breadth is getting narrower and narrower, that’s usually what always happens in a big rally. The same thing happened here the breadth was highest in late Mar2020 and Apr/May2020 and for every time the market went higher the breadth was a little bit smaller. Same thing happened late 2019 early 2020, the breadth was getting smaller and smaller for every week the market kept going, so it’s nothing crazy but it’s usually a bit of a warning sign, like it looks like ‘oh the COMPQ is breaking out of a flag’ like yeah but like this is where stock picking is really important, not everything is going up. Some rallies almost everything is going up and some rallies only a select few stocks are going higher.
• Obviously there’s still money flowing into these penny names, nano caps like OBLN mcap 20M, CLBS mcap 30M, it’s so easy to push these things, and most of the volume is just algos playing, like this thing has already traded more than 10x it’s float, it’s mostly algos playing it back and forth.

#masterclass #ep #earnings #shorting