25 [Slow earnings day! Nov 8, 2019]

  • DIS kinda slow earnings, it’s kind of a slow moving company but it did breakout of a long bull flag a few months ago when they announced the pricing of their streaming service, and I think they’re gonna go higher over the long term bc they’re a cash making machine, but it’s not a great trading stock, more of an investing stock.
  • XNET I got stopped out, took a 7k loss on it overall didn’t go, was up about 40/50k when it spiked here but was too fast. It’s kinda breaking this hl trendline so could be the start of a fade but we’ll see, if it sets up again I’ll buy but not interested in shorting here. Kinda in the middle of a range here, if it’s gonna start breaking lower mid/late day I may get short some but rn just in no mans land. XNET took out hods, so far it’s bouncing, I really hope it can hold here and maybe give us another buy setup maybe next week.
  • INMD I think this is gonna be a great technical short if it can keep going for a fmd, gonna be a great technical short there.
  • BGNE bought 2kshares, kinda thin name so hard to buy more, gonna use lods as stop as usual. In the last 6days, they had a big partnership with AMGN and SGEN, China biotechs racking up partnerships with us companies. Had a big run back in 2017/2018, now they been going sideways for 2years, just breaking out of this long consolidation I think it could go. BGNE green on the day again, nearly stopped me out but so far it’s holding lows on the 60min chart. Last time it went on a big run was kinda similar scenario, had hls, a long range break, then some news and big volume, and that started a move that started for about a year and the stock went up over 200%. This is kind of a similar scenario, you have hls, a long range, big volume gap up, this could be a multi Q mover definitely.
  • MNST has to be one of the best stocks of all time, in 16years it has gone from 10c to $60, it’s up 66,000% in 13years that is just amazing.
  • GH still big rev growth and it’s still accelerating, this is a little bit intriguing, look at the rev growth accelerating over the past 4 Qs, but they are estimating a little bit larger loss for next year though so that’s not a good sign, not something to want to see with accelerating rev.
  • ISEE looks like it wants to go higher, no volume but no reason this thing can’t go to 5/6 if it breaks out again.
  • YELP is interesting, been going sideways for 3/4years, they are expected to have record earnings next year, in 2016 they earned 73c which is the second biggest year for them, next year they’re expected to earn $1.04. I mean if they can take out this range mid 30s, could go, not a traditional setup for me but would be fun to track this thing.
  • SPY we had at least on the shorter term picture this kind of a spinning top yday after a big 1month run where we’ve been straight up. I think on the short term we’re gonna go lower, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test this rising 20day and maybe even 50day in the SPYs and also IWM and COMPQ, if we can retest this breakout area that would be normal action. I would get stopped out of some stocks but the strongest ones are gonna hold up and those are the ones I’m gonna hold.
  • ACAD still flagging, I got stopped out of this thing last week but it’s still holding up, looks good on the weekly, if it breaks over this 44 area is gonna break a 4year range. I’m not sure if the phase 3 data it had is enough to move this stock higher but technically it looks great.
  • CNST and NXTC, I wonder if they’re gonna have another leg higher, these are totally pumped stocks, there’s nothing fundamentally driving these, classic low float squeezes. They are going sideways, not breaking down, so maybe they’re gonna have another leg higher next week.
  • SIG I like, down 90% over the past 3years, now it’s in a long bullflag from the lows up almost 70% from the lows a couple of months ago, looks good, just a bottom flag, these kinda of setups have been working over the past month. If it breaks out why can’t this thing go back to low/mid 20s or something.
  • NBIX I’m gonna show you guys on the weekly, broke out of a multi year bullflag a few years ago, and honestly there’s a lot of charts that look like this rn, look what NBIX did when it broke out of this consolidation went up over 100%, this was about a 2.5year base. Rn there’s a lot of bases that look similar to this, especially China names, that are 1.5/2year duration with hls. This is a very bullish type of chart formation, especially if you combine it with earnings growth and good estimates, bc earnings is what is driving stocks over mid/long term. If you can find good charts with good eps/rev growth and estimates, that’s a winning scenario.
  • My accounts, I went from about 43k to 100k in just 3months in a straight line back in early 2014, then I shorted PLUG and that was my biggest loss back then about 40k, my first big loss, 10/03/2014 about 30% of my account. Then when it bounced I made most of that big loss back, and after that it was pretty much straight up again. Then the next big loss Oct2014 I lost about 30/40% again.
  • I always bet more on stuff I like, that’s how it should be, you should never have static risk never ever, that’s how you make money, the higher conviction the more you should bet. But to get conviction you need experience you need to make a lot of mistakes, I’ve made all the mistakes you can make.
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