• We had the first crack, and now they’re all bouncing back into resistance. XPEV, NIO, BLNK, SBE all of these. I have a pretty decent short position in some of these already from premarket, very good entries on NIO, XPEV and SBE, BLNK only got a starter and already covered up, and will be adding throughout the day orls, vwap fails, the usual stuff, but this time I’m gonna be around most of the day looking for opps, we don’t get days like this very often, could be epic, but there’s a chance I have to take some pain first.
• XPEV, so far showing rw to NIO. Everything straight down, very nice. XPEV bouncing on the rising 10ema. XPEV just got rejected at the vwap, interesting. Willing to add more, it’s in a tight tight range now, and it’s building lhs. Looks like it wants to roll over, I’m short 150kshares. XPEV stopped out of the add. Okay just covered pretty much everything, locked in 140k or so profits, was up 6/700k at one point, whatever. But again if we get a re entry I’m gonna go in size again. XPEV potential re entry on this thing, it’s getting rejected on the 65ema on the 5min. All out, oh well the higher they go the better, the EV opp is gonna get even better.
• XPEV to new highs, holy f*ck, guys do you remember when I bought 50kshares here [4/11/2020] low 24s, I lost those shares I sold them somewhere 33/34s, genius move right, all I had to do was wait for the first close below the 10day, literally all I had to do, it’s the same thing I did with NVAX, I sold it bc I thought it had gone up too much then it went up another 140%, and there’s several other examples. I’m telling you guys, you are your own worst enemy, no one else is gonna fight you except yourself, it’s all about defeating yourself.
• NIO, straight down, holy f*ck. Just saw NIO took a dump, need to cover some more. NIO if it reclaims the intraday high I’m gonna cover it for a profit actually, since my avg is 57 from premarket. NIO locked in 120k and all covered. Now NIO showing weakness, interesting.
• TSLA selling rest, I think the EVs are gonna tank more, and if the China EVs tank I think TSLA is gonna tank also, so just trying to be cautious here.
• JMIA is the next one I’m gonna do, could pullback pretty hard. FCEL is tanking hard, DPW too. JMIA is gonna join them I think. Shorted 110kshares JMIA. JMIA failed below vwap, so now it’s showing weakness. Holy f*ck, covering some more JMIA here. JMIA avg is 32.40, when it just looked like it was gonna fail vwap, and all the other extended stocks were tanking so I kinda anticipated the breakdown, I was kinda lucky on that one bc it hadn’t cracked yet, and all the others had cracked, so I was like I’m risking like what a dollar and if it works I’ll make 10. JMIA is bouncing to test vwap, it bounced off the 10ema. So this is what a weak stock looks like, it just can’t get above the vwap, it just can’t, so this one I’m keeping, it’s just in a downtrend, lhs all the way, there’s no reason to cover this thing, this could go to low 20s by tomos for all we know. It just keeps getting rejected, every time it tries to bounce it just builds lhs and has another fade, that’s what a weak stock looks like.
• I know JMIA is a joke, I did dd on it when it ipo’d, they’re just burning money, there’s no growth in the company. Look at this thing, you would think an ecommerce company, especially during corona, should be growing 30/50/100%, what is this one doing? Declining revenues. Look at some other ecommerce companies, look at AMZN, look the the growth in this thing, 40%, 37% rev growth, not to mention eps growth. Look at MELI the SA ecommerce company, look at the growth in this thing. Then you have JMIA, look at the diff, this is a total pos, yeah they don’t have the infrastructure, Africa is hard. AMZN had great growth almost from day one, JMIA has no growth, AMZN had great rev growth every single year since the 90s, and in the 90s it had triple digit rev growth, JMIA should have triple digit rev growth too if it’s so amazing, but it’s not.
• Holy sh*t, these are the days we live for. I’m up so far over 1M on these shorts, and I think we’re just getting started. XPEV I think could go back to mid 50s, NIO maybe mid 40s, JMIA mid/low 20s, SBE maybe high 20s. Every time I say f*ck I’m up another 200k at least, epic sh*t, and I think these things are just getting started. Opportunity like this doesn’t come around very often, and when it does, you’d better increase your account by double digit percentages. Days like this it’s important to focus on a few main ones, if you want to track everything you’re gonna miss everything, that’s how it goes.
• I’ve tightened up my stops on all these stocks so even if they stop me out I’m not gonna take a loss on it. Rn JMIA is the one that’s working best, so I’ve added a bit to some of the others since I have a profit padding, you don’t go 0 to 50 millions short, I started shorting some of these names premarket and I added in when they started working, and I tightened up stops. Shorting is hard man, shorting is stressful, that’s why I wait for these almost perfect opps where you almost can’t lose.
• SBE stopped out pm starter. SBE covered all of it, it’s not fading, found support above vwap. Looks like it wants to hit 45 today, that’s great, I hope it goes 45/50 by tomos.
• BLNK, shame it didn’t gap up, would have been much better if BLNK had opened in the mid/high 30s, I would have brought the sledge hammer.
• BLDP gonna sell, locking in the profit, it’s just in the middle of nowhere, I’m gonna wait for a new setup, the whole sector is pulling back and I think it’s gonna pullback even more.
• Lots of weed stocks gapping up this morning, idk why. Idk wth is going on here in the weed sector but TLRY has just reclaimed the 200day after multiple years, something brewing here. TLRY and CRON bought some, but looks like it’s not working, feels like a peak momo kinda day, at least like short term. TLRY I was thinking it’s reclaiming the 200day MA, it’s beaten down as hell, hot sector, just coming out of a range, was a hot runner like 3weeks ago, these things can really go.
• CRSR, wait for if it starts building lhs and breaking a range to the downside, it’s still above vwap, but it’s getting to a point where you can take a starter with a tight stop, but this is probably gonna be a swing play, it could pull back to 40 or something but it’s not one of the faster names. Keep a eye on CRSR if it starts fading late day or something, I mean this thing is up like 7/8days in a row, it’s gonna have a red day, may not be today but it’s gonna have a red day, and then some.
• My ib account is up like 1000% this year, I think I started the year with like 120k in ib cos I’ve been neglecting it for years, and I’ve been playing a lot of these swing trades, these thinner names with a lot of potential, and now it’s 1.2M. But I’ve been like all-in in like 2/3stocks, that’s how the returns are so good, I’ve been really concentrated in my portfolio. I would never do that in my main accounts, take those kind of risks, I wouldn’t be able to sleep if I did that, like I’ve been in FUTU, RIOT and MARA full margin past few weeks, if I did that in my main accounts I would be a wreck, the drawdowns would be too hard.

Misc:

• There’s also an institutional version of Marketsmith called Wonda, where you can see a little bit further back I think.
• Hey David if this trade doesn’t work out I wanna borrow one of your guns. Okay it was a bad joke. Bad joke, bad joke, disregard the bad joke.

#shorting #masterclass