202 [What if we get a big rally into elections? Oct 1, 2020]

  • XPEV bought yesterday midday, looks like it’s gapping up. It’s a hot sector, China EV, and it had an ipo breakout yesterday, which is failing today. Ipo breakouts can be super lucrative, but yeah this one’s obviously failing.
  • Z I had two entries, had an entry here [30/07/2020] just a classic flag breakout, this is my initial entry, you have a big big move, surfing these MAs, first it surfed the 20day, then it surfed the 50day, built hls, then it built a mini flag on a bigger flag kinda of a setup, then it broke out here. Then I had a second add here [14/9/2020], it closed weak on this day, but it’s the same thing, surfing the 20day, undercut the 20day, built hls, got really tight and had a breakout, this is where I added. Just classic, simple breakout system, you have to find the strongest stocks and then just buy simple breakouts.
  • LEN, broke out here [28/9/2020] this was the entry day. LEN, BZH, HOV, they all broke out that day.
  • Completely different trading style from three years ago? Not really, I’ve just simplified things, the only thing I’ve done the past 3 years is I’ve removed a bunch of stuff, just made it simpler. Yeah I did trade a lot more microcaps, I shorted them a lot, I still do just not as much, I still use the exact same methods. Right now I’m doing a lot of breakouts bc we’re in a bullrun.
  • CHWY, I kinda like it, if it breaks out here, I like it. It’s surfing the 50day, everyday this thing finds support on the 50day it has a breakout. Here it went up almost 30%, here it brokeout off the 50day went up 50%, and here it’s on the 50day again, maybe next leg up 30/40% who knows.
  • OSTK, 79? That’s way higher, it’s breaking out rn, you should always buy stuff just when they breakout. This is when the rangebreak is [77] not 79 thats just chasing, now is when it’s breaking out, just look at the candle here, this is a breakout, this is where it’s breaking the range.
  • Seasonality is gonna be really bad for the next couple of weeks, I think like early Sep to mid Oct is like the worst period of the year statistically, but that doesn’t mean it’s gonna be like that every year. Rn the past week we’ve had a lot of good setups and the markets are kinda grinding higher so we have to follow the price action. This is why they say ‘sell in may and go away’, bc Jun-Oct is generally a sideways period, the market tends to go up in the first 4months and in the last 2months, and then it’s just sideways from like May-Oct. Seasonality is a real thing, but again it’s not every year.
  • BYND wasn’t really tight before the breakout, only reason I bought it was bc it had news and a range, was potentially game changing news, but then I read the news was kinda rehashed, so not really excited about it, actually gonna tighten my stop on it, moved my stop up like $2.
  • KIRK, it’s kinda choppy, I don’t see a clean breakout on this thing, it’s not tight that’s the problem, it’s been building hls, but it needs to kinda breakout with force.
  • HOME, looks good, has insane earnings also, surfing the 50day building hls, getting tighter, I like this one, if it breaks out tomos, could be good, very powerful looking stock.
  • ABC stocks, this is a manual build wl where I put recent ipos, the strongest growth stocks and the biggest momo stocks, and then I kinda clean it like once per week or so. Every couple of weeks I add and remove stocks. And this Strongerest scan, just scans for stocks that are up on the day and taking out yesterday’s highs, very simple scan.
  • Is one day tightness enough? No, it needs to be a range, there needs to be a range, but I do prefer a couple days of tightness before the breakout, but if the range is good, something like FSLY I bought last week, it wasn’t per se tight the couple of days before the breakout, but it had a very nice range so I bought it anyways, but if it doesn’t have a really nice range, it needs to be tight.
  • WIX, I think it looks ready, looks really really good, really tight range, surfing the rising 100day, building hls, it’s ready, on the weekly chart it’s surfing the 20week, this is a 5* setup in my book, just needs to break out.
  • I’m maybe 140% invested rn on the longside, I don’t have any shorts, I’m just too scared to take on more exposure. That’s how you go on margin, I’ve been building my portfolio for a couple of weeks now, since the markets bottomed, even before the markets bottomed, I bought DKNG somewhere here before the second leg lower in the markets, that’s when I started rebuilding my portfolio, and I’ve been adding stocks the past 2weeks or so. And that’s how you go on margin, you buy some stocks, if they start working you buy some more, the market shapes up you have more setups, you buy more, you don’t go 0-100 in a few days, going on margin it takes weeks. And you need to start seeing gains in your prior buys before you start adding more exposure. And now it’s just about trimming and trailing, and if we go on a nice little run into the election, gonna make a lot of money, and if we don’t go on a run into the election well that’s fine, and if we tank into the election, I’m gonna get stopped out of most of my stocks for b/e or a profit, so I’m only risking giving back profits, I’m not risking taking an overall loss, if the markets would tank from here and stop me out of all of my positions.
  • DKNG, this thing is a homerun, one of my biggest trades ever, it broke out before the market bottomed, broke out right here [9/9/2020], it just kept showing rs, the markets were down big here and this thing just couldn’t go down, just bounced up immediately, so it wasn’t like a 5* setup but I bought it anyways since it was showing so much rs, and it was approaching this big range. And if it hadn’t been for this trade I would have much less exposure, but since this trade has been working really nicely I’ve been adding more risk, bc I have profits, I deserve to take on more risk. You always have to deserve taking more risk, you never add more risk if you don’t deserve it, and you never go on margin if you don’t deserve it, you need to have a profit, have a profit cushion in a bunch of things. That’s when you start going on margin, if you see good setups and you think the market is good.
  • Now and then you’re gonna hit a landmine, and now and then you’re gonna hit a homerun, you will guaranteed wake up one day and one of your stocks will be down 50/60%, it’s gonna happen sooner or later, and you will guaranteed wake up one day and one of your stocks is gonna be up 50/100%, bc of biotech data or some earnings or buyout or whatever. You can’t control for those things, all you can do is control your position size, never more than 20/25% in one stock, and the smaller cap the stock is the less you should put into it.
  • It’s these simple patterns I talk about all the time, if you have a big momo stock goes up alot, builds a channel, or builds a channel like this, or maybe something like this with hls, or maybe something like this, these triangles, channels, htfs, the same patterns over and over again, it’s the same things over and over, it’s so easy, you just need to train your brain to see these patterns, on the strongest stocks, that’s the key, not some random piece of sh*t, the strongest stocks. People keep posting these random stocks that have these bullflags but you need the strongest stocks, you don’t have an edge trading some random sh*t stock that happens to have a good chart pattern. It has to be a momo leader. All you have to do to succeed in the stock market is don’t be a f retard, really, that’s all you have to do, you don’t need any intelligence to make tens of millions, all you need to know is risk management, portfolio management and these patterns, and then you need to have sit out power when the market is bad, that’s all you need.
  • Exactly, Zanger, Livermore, Darvas, Roppel, O’Neil, it’s the same thing, all momo traders, they trade these momo stocks, relative strength stocks, the stocks that funds are dying to get in, you want the stocks that the funds want to buy, the funds leave footprints, the big institutions leave footprints, your job is to sniff out the stocks the funds are buying. You don’t want some pos random stock, you’re never gonna make money over time, you want buyers coming in after you.
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