2 [Least exposure this year so far!! Started $UVXY long, markets reall weak. Oct 2, 2019]

  • Least amount of exposure I’ve had in the market all year, lack of setups and the fact I’ve been getting stopped out of a lot of things. Market getting weak now, thinking about buying some UVXY in case the bottom falls out. UVXY gonna buy some right here with a 28.35 stop, just a starter nothing crazy. Okay stopped in some orhs, bought 8kshares premarket and another 12kshares now, stop for those adds lods, very tight stop and small position just going for a lottery ticket type trade here. Moving stop for all shares to lods, no reason to hold it down past this level.
  • In the first 15mins I sometimes look at the 1/5min charts but after the first half hour I usually just watch the hourly and daily, in some kinda special occasions I may look at the 5min all day usually when some big runner I’m looking for a short, like HMNY [11/10/2017] when a stock has run up a lot that’s when I look at the intraday chart.
  • ULTA watching but I want it to extend more, I want it to extend another day to like 280 or something, I don’t think there’s a great setup here yet.
  • DRIP triple oil etf up 73% in two weeks or so, idk not excited about it yet. If it keeps going to like 95/100 today there may be a setup for tomos. I’m looking for something like this [26/12/2018] where it goes up multiple days in a row then has a red day.
  • GLD has taken out this long long range, this is 5/6/7years or so, had a leg up and now it’s just consolidating, I think in a few weeks or something may have another leg up. NUGT this this makes big big moves, if GLD goes up 5% this goes up 50/100%, I caught a 200% move earlier this year from my initial buy down here.
  • RLGY gonna sell even though it hasn’t hit my stop yet bc it’s gonna, market is just too weak. I bought 3/4days ago on this little breakout off the flag this 60min candle.
  • This has been happening with a lot of stocks they’ve been hitting my trailing stops, that’s one way to tell the market internals are weak, getting stopped out of position after position, and that new positions haven’t been working.
  • Sell rules, okay so ROKU I bought it orhs [9/5/2019] gapped up on earnings, huge volume, long range break, good earnings great growth etc, all the things I’m looking for. So on the day I buy it the stop is lods, then I sell some as it goes up and start trailing it, first close below the 10day I’ll sell 1/4 or 1/3 of what I have left, then I sell another 1/4 or 1/3 the first close below the 20day, then the next level is the 50day etc. So I wait until eod then I sell, then I also have a level I sell no matter what, I usually use the previous wick lows as my stop.
  • For a swing trader sell offs are great, bc that’s where the biggest opps are, look at DJ-30 go back 100years, the biggest swings start after the market has gone down, every single time. Now the key is getting in when the next swing up starts, that’s the hard part. A second leg higher or an undercut of a previous low, those are much safer than getting in on the first leg down, like back in Dec/Jan2019 it was the third leg down, you always want several legs down.
  • It’s just a waiting game, if you wanna make money in the markets you’ve gotta wait, you’ve gotta have patience to wait for your setups.
  • I’m not reading filings or income statement or balance sheets, I use Marketsmith to look up the earnings. Here you can see the estimates for the past two years and the past 2 Qs of eps and rev growth. Say AAPL you can see eps and rev growth has been decelerating, and estimates -2% eps then next year 9%, I track these things. I usually want the fastest growing stocks, they don’t have to be profitable a lot of them are losing money but if their rev growth is big they can work really well. If you study the biggest movers in the markets, things that go up multiple years and make huge moves, they’re all earnings driven. SQ 7 bagger great earnings, SHOP 18 bagger earnings, AAPL what’s behind this move earnings. This is where I look for setups, strong growth stocks with great earnings, especially when they show resilience and relative strength compared to the market.
  • I think you learn faster as a day trader bc you do more, your learning curve is generally faster, that’s what I did then I started increasing my timeframes, in the beginning I held for a few hours, then all day, then overnighting, then 3-5day swings, then a few weeks or months, now several Qs.
  • I’m gonna show you guys a chart of my trading progress. I made my first millions in Jul2016, so about 5years into my trading career, then a few years to my second, then to 3/4 was really quick bc it’s easier to make money if you have more money. When I had a 40k account I was still daytrading, I started doing more overnights when I had 100k then more swing trading when I had a few hundred thousand, now that I have millions I don’t even bother with these shorter term trades, bc I don’t really have to make money I’m just waiting for the next big opp, I want to trade the rest of my life but I don’t wanna day trade, I don’t wanna sit there looking at charts 7/8hours per day, I’ve done that it’s really exhausting.
  • Patience is the hardest part, you feel like you have to do something, every day I’m fighting the urge to trade, I’m a chronic over trader.
  • Early in my days when I was daytrading and I had these huge drawdowns, pretty much all these huge drawdowns were mostly shorting one momo stock, it’s very easy to be too early and it can hurt a lot, I was able to handle it when I had a smaller account but now idk how I’d feel if I lost 5-10% account in one day shorting some momo stock. Last time I was in trouble was shorting TLRY 2018 I got in a bad loop tried shorting it every single day, I was down 700k, I made all of it back when it finally crashed. Nowadays most of my drawdowns are from highs, let’s say I increase my account 30% then give back 1/3rd. The worst kind of drawdowns are when you’ve lost money or been going sideways for a while, then you have a big drawdown, that’s really demoralising. So there is a difference between a drawdown and a drawdown, even if you lose the same amount of money, psychologically there’s a huge difference.
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