178 [Crypto setups special! -Swing Trading School about 65 minutes in. Aug 19, 2020]

  • TWLO rebought half size midday, after it pulled back it built another hl, that’s kind of a bullish sign, I kinda anticipated the b/o on it, but looks like it’s gapping down today.
  • Premarket gapper scan – Dollar volume > 1000000, Price percent change today > 7%, scan on premarket stocks watchlist.
  • WKHS should have bought yesterday, high 15s/low 16s was the entry, was perfectly building hls, but missed it.
  • LAC just pulling back to support, this is normal price action, pulled back to the rising 10day, if it can build another hl here that would be a good thing, this is just normal price action, pullbacks are healthy.
  • SE taking out this 60min range here. Breaking to new highs, solid setup on the 60min, this is the type of stock that could make a parabolic move. Bought some [5min orhs] looks like it wants to go to high hundreds, not really a great setup, it’s kind of a post earnings, kinda taking out orhs from yesterday. Stopped out, oh well was a bad setup, shouldn’t have traded it, deserve to lose money on it. You gotta buy stocks that are coming out of bases, not something that’s already extended.
  • Weird strength in RCL but not CCL and NCLH, why do they want to buy up RCL? Always tricky when you have a whole sector but only one stock is strong and the other one’s are sluggish, so much easier when a whole sector is showing strength at the same time, then you just buy the strongest one, or the best setup in that sector. RCL looks amazing. RCL why didn’t I buy it, man. Looks like we’re having some sector rotation again. RCL yeah had a breakout on 10/08/2020 but there was no real setup on it (not really surfing any of the key MAs), it was just coming out of a channel, sometimes can work but not really the main setup we’re looking for, there was a better setup on it today.
  • SHOP moving, bought 3500kshares, looks really good, hls all the way, now it’s having a little bit of a rangebreak. Stopped out, so SHOP pulled back but there’s still a chance it’s gonna build another hl, if it builds another hl, reclaims the range and maybe goes sideways for another day or two, this setup is gonna be really good. That’s the key, shakeouts and failed breakouts, they can be a good thing, if they build hls and setup again later.
  • SPOT going also, this thing looks so good, bought some.
  • CRSP 5* setup yesterday, passed on it too thin for me, been stalking for a week or so but just didn’t breakout on high volume. This is what a good breakout should look like, it shouldn’t pullback or anything. Should breakout and just go straight up, and preferably follow through several days in a row without any pullbacks. This is what a 5* setup and a 5* follow through look like, you don’t want it to pullback or anything you just want it to go, if a breakout pulls back there’s a higher chance it’s gonna fail.
  • It’s been a little bit tough swingtrading market, some swings have been working really well, but there’s been a lot of shakeouts. W, JD, BE have been really good, but a lot of them have just shaken me out and just fake breakouts, so it’s kinda hard to gain any ground in a market like this, the fail rate has been quite high lately, little bit tricky, but that’s how it is, you gotta endure these tougher times. That’s the hardest market, when you get a lot of good setups, and a lot of them don’t follow through, a market that tanks is much easier bc you don’t get any setups.
  • W tightening up stop from yesterday, don’t trust it, it was maybe a 3* setup, kinda extended, gonna use a v tight stop on those adds. W is acting really well.
  • FSLY looks like it’s bear flagging here, looks like it’s getting rejected off the 10day, if it doesn’t breakdown today may watch it as a short tomos, next support is the 100day like 27% lower.
  • IGV not really ready to go yet, getting tighter, probably wants to chop around in this channel for another week or two, this is why a lot of these software stocks having big reversals, obv the QQQs too. Time for patience, the market is telling us something here.
  • Look at this APPS, if you bought this 5* setup. Big move, pulled back sideways, in this case it surfed the 10/20day then it kinda went sideways a bit further, but then it started building hls, put in a tight range, and broke out of this range, this is a 5* setup. Now you’d still be in some trailing with the 10day, now and then you’re gonna catch these stocks that double and triple in a short amount of time, those are the trades that are gonna make you rich, everything else is just a grind, you gotta find those homeruns, the homeruns are gonna make you rich okay, most of the time trading is just a grind 70/80% of the time, now and then the market gods bless you with a homerun. All you have to do is identify the setups and follow the rules, that’s it.
  • ENPH there has been short seller pieces on it since many years back. Here Prescience point back in July 2018 when the stock was $6, there’s been several since, Citron hit it here Sep 2019 at $23, here Prescience point hit is again at $46, these guys know nothing. Maybe it is a scam, but the market doesn’t agree, just trade the setups. These hit pieces are just a waste of time, most of the time.
  • KIRK look at this, I’m telling you guys those of you with small accounts you have such an incredible edge. It had a good setup here, here and now look at it, this thing is a 2/3x from those good setups. Look at the ADR 12.5%, you’re not gonna get this kinda move on low ADR stocks, you get doubles and triples on high ADR stocks. You guys with small accounts have a big big edge, just learn the setups and develop your rules, you can make so much money.
  • TWTR has been relentlessly building hls, reminds me of here back in may 2018, wasn’t as clean, but it made a move started relentlessly building hls, then it just started going speeding up and went up 45% in a couple of weeks. Think TWTR could do something similar here, but this is a better setup imo, and it has a catalyst too, they don’t have the earnings to fuel but this sub model, expectation of future profits, that’s really what the stock market is all about, it’s all about the future. Bought 100kshares.
  • AXU no it’s not a very linear stock, it’s a choppy smallcap stock, just avoid choppy smallcap stocks. Large caps it’s sometimes okay if there’s some choppiness, but small caps absolutely no choppiness at all.
  • NEON is a good one, that’s a really good looking setup.
  • MOBL yeah it’s a decent setup, maybe not a momo leader but it’s a good looking setup, if you bought it like no higher than 6.10.
  • VEEV, it’s just a very choppy stock, this thing never has a good setup, just keeps grinding higher, very tough stock to trade. Kinda has an up day, down day, up day, down day, and still somehow manages to move higher. Some stocks are a bit tricky, another one is NOW, keeps going higher but every other day is a red day. ZEN is another one of these stocks, from the march lows it’s made a big move, 80% move but 50% of these days are red days, just very tricky. Compared to something like FSLY, TSLA, SHOP, AMD, when they move they move, those are the stocks you want to trade, you need to be able to identify beforehand. You’re gonna do it over the years, it’s gonna take a while.
  • AA, yeah alcoholics anonymous is breaking out. Also had a really good setup here, made a decent move, you can clearly see, made a step higher, sideways, step higher, sideways, then you had another breakout, tight range, hls, surfing the 20day, now it’s trying to go again. I like alcoholics anonymous, 4* setup.
  • JD wow, this is what a 5* breakout looks like, lower ADR stock, slower stocks need to go sideways a bit more, but this thing started was surfing the 10day, then it started surfing the 20day, then the 50day, but you can clearly see it’s been building hls, then it broke out on earnings. Earnings breakouts can be really powerful, from a solid base. You maybe get a few per earnings season on liquid stocks, and you have to identify them, this one I nailed. I bought premarket got stopped out but then I rebought it a bit higher, a good setup, you get shaken out you need to be able to rebuy it, as long as the stop doesn’t get too wide.
  • GRWG, I’m gonna watch for tomos, bc now it’s starting to get a little bit higher priced and good volume. I like it when these stocks go straight up, they try to pullback and the pullback fails and it keeps going straight up, that usually sets up for a better short. Especially if it can go to high 20s tomos that would be very good, still not liquid enough but maybe I’ll do small size if the setup is really good.
  • What’s the difference between me and everyone else not making millions? Yeah study time, setups, people not making millions they don’t have a profitable setup, bc they haven’t studied the markets.
  • Everyone is so into backtesting all this mechanical backtesting, idk, I think they’re just trying to get a shortcut, so they don’t have to put in the hard work. If you can’t find a good setup, a computer sure as hell is not gonna find it for you.
  • Ignore head and shoulders, head and shoulders is not gonna make you any money. All you need to focus on are these channels, these types of flags, or these types of flags, this is all you need to focus on. Head and shoulders you can completely ignore it, if you want to make tens of millions, you don’t need to know what head and shoulders is, just focus on good long setups, all you need to know. You’re gonna see head and shoulders everywhere, head and shoulders is a very specific pattern that’s only valid in very rare cases, 95% of the head and shoulders patterns are just failures. It’s a shampoo exactly, any time someones says head and shoulders, you need to think of the shampoo.
  • Crypto swingtrading special, I’m gonna start with BTC, you can make money in any asset class, they all move the same, you get the exact same patterns. Stocks and Crypto and all asset classes, they move in stairs, our job is to buy it here at the exact time it starts to build the next step higher. We’re not gonna be 100% correct, my winrate is 25%, but the key is all about small losers big winners. Then the MAs, the leading stocks keep surfing these MAs.
  • BTC, back here is was very illiquid and unknown, pretty much no one knew about BTC back here but this is where it started making a move. Makes a move, goes sideways, finds support on the rising 10/20day, gets tight, has a breakout. Then you get another one, hls, goes sideways gets tighter and tighter, surfs the 10day, another breakout. Then it kinda goes sideways for a while, and here again, after a while of chop it starts surfing the 10/20/50day, gets tight and breakout from a rangebreak. Then you get these smaller stairsteps, imo these are too short to trade, but you could have used the 10day as trailing stop, it never closed below, look at the move you would have caught, this thing was a ten bagger, it went absolutely parabolic you would have been crazy not to sell at least some into strength, but it went to 260 almost. This was a very good setup, here it actually went sideways for a while, this is a htf, surfs the 10/20day, gets really really tight, this is like a 5* setup, this is a perfect one, and even from this it goes up 400/500% in a month. Then it has a period of chop, pulls back to the 50day, starts kinda building hls, then it fades, it made a huge move so you know needs to digest that move. Then it kinda starts trending again, builds another stair step, fails comes back into range, breaks out of this range, gets tighter look the 50day catches up to the price, then breaks out of this range. And again here, perfect breakout, look how powerful this thing is, 3/4x in a few months. Then it fades back does nothing for a year or two or whatever, here it kinda finds a trend again but I really don’t see a setup on it. Then it kinda chops around for a while again, and now it starts moving again, this is where you start looking for setups when it makes a big move and the 10/20/50day start moving higher, this is when you start stalking for a setup. And here it is, look how tight it is, puts in a really tight range gets tighter and tighter, the 10day catches up and that’s where you get the breakout. Now it kinda chops around for a while, here it finds a trend, there is a potential setup here but not 5*, here it gets kinda tight breakouts but not as clean. Here, has a shakeout below the 50day, has a leg higher, goes sideways tight range, surfs the 10day, another rangebreak. Here, I would have wished for another couple of days of sideways with a tighter range but you get another breakout here with hls, just not as tight as I’d have liked it, but worked. 2019, here again it makes a leg higher, this is not that clean of a setup but there is a setup, kinda surfs the 20day, takes out a tight range, sometimes stocks go higher even from bad setups, but your job is to focus on good setups. And now it’s kinda moving higher again, took a leg higher, had a failed breakout two days ago, pulled back, now it’s surfing the 20day, today it found support on the 20day, maybe next week we get a setup, the range here is still intact, it’s building hls.
  • ETH same thing. This is wide and loose that’s not a good setup, but here is a good setup, just keeps surfing the 20day, puts hls, the range gets tighter, then you have a rangebreak, this is a 5* setup, then you have a big move, doubles in just a couple of weeks. This is how stocks move, you can clearly see, they move in stairs, one step, another step, another step.
  • BTC weekly chart, you can clearly see, stairs. One step, next step, next step, next step. Just like a stair. Your job is to identify the next step just as it’s about to break out. You’re not gonna have 100% winrate, you’re gonna be wrong most of the time, but once you catch a move like this, you’re gonna make back 50 losers in one trade, that’s how you make money.


  • A journalist from wsj wrote to me on twitter, he wanted to chat with me about my kodak trade. Kinda insane. People like big numbers.
  • theshortbear, up 6M this year, 21, madaz chatroom. I’m gonna crush this guy, just kidding, JUST KIDDING.
  • SMB, if you’ve been trading 20years you should be making 300k per week not per year. Close to 10M this year? Well they upped their game I guess..

#swingtradingschool #crypto

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