• AAPL still short, covered 1000 of 10000 yesterday before close, covering another 500shares here in premarket. If the markets pullback this thing could easily pullback to 350s [50day]. This thing is a homerun, my entry was 383, just when it started breaking below the 10day and 65ema after building a little bit of lhs.
• TTD went short, only got a partial fill [600shares]. It had a perfect breakdown below the 20day. Here is where I shorted, tested the 20day, bounced a bit went sideways then took out the lods, high 431s. Covered all orhs, was a tiny position.
• VXRT went short when it lost the 10day, now it’s gapping down. MRNA I was about to short it when it broke down here 79 area, but I didn’t pull the trigger, I was already short VXRT and INO. INO is weak, this thing wants to break down further, could go straight to the 50day today, that’s another 12%.
• TSLA went short when it lost the 10day, when it took out lods. 1523 is my avg, not great, should have shorted more aggressively when it took out lods initially, 1551 or so. Covering some small here premarket. Right on the rising 20day, was a lot of downside left, next stop the 50day is 20% lower. So far bouncing right off the 20day, through the lods this thing could be juicy, not necc today, may be next week. Added 1300shares through the lows [1380s], tight stop [1400 stop], just incase, bc technically this thing could be at the 50day in the next couple of sessions. You should never underestimate a momo stock that unwinds. Was down 12% from the lows yesterday, today it’s down another 9%. Stopped out of adds, bounced holding 20day. If it takes out that area later/next week I’m gonna add. Great thing about TSLA is you get these tight ranges on the 60min. Now TSLA there’s a big resistance area in the 1500 area, you have all the 60min ems sloping down, and there’s also this big base here that used to be support, now it’s resistance, so the 1500 area is gonna be a big big resistance, if it gets rejected there next leg down could be low 1000s. But if it reclaims and starts building hls, it could obv go much higher. That’s why you just follow price action.
• Stopped out RCL and NCLH yesterday, had these random midday pops, NCLH went green on the day, super random. The airlines had a big move and the cruiselines went briefly also green, super random. Yeah all the airlines have reported past few days, and their reports are horrendous, but obv it’s priced in so that is no news, no surprises.
• Right now we’re gapping down like 4% on this TQQQ, but if we had gapped up 3/4% then I would have done big size orls, but this gap down this is just chasing here.
• It’s one thing having a stupid entry, but it’s even worse just holding a stock and having no exit plan. Where’s your exit plan, where were you supposed to sell it? That’s the big mistake here, this is the stuff that’s gonna blow you up. Your exits should be clear before you enter a stock, you should know your exits before you enter, always.
• NVAX could be a short candidate, took starter [1min orl]. Bouncing off 65ema, damn this thing is strong, suckered me in, probably gonna stop me out. Stopped out, 1.50 slippage, lost 95k on it. Alright NVAX is holding, did another higher low on the daily and the 60min. The key now is to watch which stocks can’t bounce with this market bounce, to sniff out the weak ones. Those things are just gonna tank if the market starts fading later/next week. Not gonna let this go, it’s holding vwap for now, could very easily fall back to sub 100 once it gets some selling on. Like it had good news, gapped down, bounced off the 10day, but it got rejected at the lower end of this base. Let’s say if we build a few candles here with lhs, and then it starts fading, and taking out the previous candles on the downside, I’m gonna add some more size. They’re breaking down one by one, NVAX is one of the few corona names still holding up, and this thing is up 3000% this year, amazing move, a 30/40% pullback wouldn’t be crazy. Got back a starter short 10kshares, lh. You know there is a strong bidder in the stock when there’s no slippage, I had 1c slippage on it, that means there’s strong bidders. Stopped out, I knew the second I saw there was no slippage, I was gonna get stopped out. Gonna try to reshort this thing when it starts losing the vwap, bc it got rejected right here at the lower end of this base [134s].
• LVGO is gapping below the 10day now, took starter [1min orl]. Stopped out quickly. Now going lower and missed the re entry. So we got a flush and a bounce so far.
• MU, brutal gap down, lost 70k, a lot more money than planned to risk on a starter. That’s what happens when you buy breakouts in a choppy market. I always have to relearn that lesson, kinda funny how it works.
• NIO looks like it wants to test the 50day, a lot of downside on that one. Shorted some. Shorted a little more, think it has a lot of downside potentially, short 100kshares now. Weakening, taking out lods. Now it found bids. Got rejected on the 65ema on the 60min, building a lh. If it starts taking out lows, gonna add more. Stopped out, resilience in this market is just amazing.
• DOCU shorted some, this thing is a clean clean breakdown.
• ABUS shorted 150kshares, this this keeps getting rejected off the vwap. This thing could go red today, I should do more size, maybe i’ll add more later. Weakening again, could go sub 7 today. Rn it’s on the 65ema on the 1min, I think next stop is red, I’ll try to be slow to cover. ABUS looks like it wants another leg down, there’s a straight up liquidation, you can clearly see on the 1min, this thing can’t come up for air, it’s just lhs all the way, but if this thing bounces back to vwap I will add more, I actually have an order up there, bc I didn’t get full size. It’s still building lhs, it can’t get above these MAs [1min] this this is gonna go red, they’re clearly liquidating this thing. Now it’s red, ABUS was pretty much 5*, a 4*, I should have done much more size. They had some patent news with MRNA, pre corona this thing wouldn’t even be up, the only reason this thing went from 2 to 9 is bc MRNA went on a big run this year, 6 months ago this thing probably wouldn’t have even gone up on this pr, no one would have cared. It’s just a momo pump bc these types of stocks are working rn. Low 7.80s was my average, and my initial stop was 8.21, so I used a 40c stop, and now I’m up over $3 on it, that’s good r/r. There was no reason to use hod as a stop, it got rejected off the vwap 3 times. Just a reclaim of vwap was enough.
• QQQs we got an undercut of the 20day, this is the third undercut in the past few months, the question is are we gonna reclaim the 20day and go higher or sideways or is the 20day now gonna be a resistance area, that’s the question. Obv the dip buying is pretty strong rn in the markets. What I’m interested in is to see how we close, if we start rolling over into the close, that wouldn’t be a good thing, rn looks like we undercut and reclaimed, but if we start rolling over, those pretty candles are gonna turn into not so pretty candles.
• NKLA just keeps going down, I’m thinking if it could go down to like low/mid 20s, to the rising 150day, maybe could bounce off that level.
• I’m experiencing some chop here. This is what’s so frustrating about these kinda markets, you can have like one really good winner, and then you have like 3/4 losers, and you don’t get anywhere. That’s pretty much the past 10/14 trading days for me. I’ve had some really nice winners, but for every winner I’ve had like four losers, so I’m not getting anywhere. The past four months it’s been like for every two winners I have one loser, and I’ve had a lot of homeruns. But now in the choppy market, this is what MM calls a hard penny market vs an easy dollar market, that’s how it is, a lot of small and mid sized losers. That’s something you have to live with.
• As a swing and position trader you spend most of your time in a drawdown. Doesn’t have to be a deep drawdown, but most of the time you’re gonna be in a drawdown. If you look at say NFLX, one of the biggest winning stocks over the past 10years, even though this thing is up 21000% from the ’08 lows, even this thing spent most of the time in a drawdown. It doubled, 2009 it spent 6 months in a drawdown, here a couple of months in a drawdown, here a long time in a drawdown [2011-2013], here a couple of months in a drawdown [2014] also here like 4 months in a drawdown, here for several months [2015] here a drawdown for 6/7 months [2016], here you were in a drawdown for over a year [2018-2019]. So even though this was one of the biggest winning stocks over the past 10 years, half of the time this stock spent in a drawdown. As a swing and position trader even if you have very good returns, you’re gonna spend a lot of time in a drawdown, probably most of the time.
• Nat Gas stocks moving, COG earlier this week, but SWC, RRC, AR, all trying to breakout here.
• APHI got stopped out yesterday, but I’m gonna rebuy it if it rebreaks. It’s just like CODX, I bought it here [16/7/2020], got stopped out two days later, then the next day [21/7/2020] broke out and I rebought it, and this time it went. Same thing with AMD, I tried to buy it here [9/6/2020], got stopped out two days later, here this breakout I passed on [9/7/2020] bc it was a laggard, all the other semis had broken out a week earlier and then it faded back, and then 4 days ago it broke out again [20/7/2020] and it hasn’t looked back since. So the more failed breakouts you have, combined with higher lows and a longer base, bigger chance it’s gonna go. So AHPI, it it breaks out I’ll be in it, maybe even with more size than I had previously.
• MDB bouncing off the 65ema on the daily, PDD bouncing off the 50day, MELI back into range, DDOG bouncing off the 50day. If we can get a little bit of sideways action, we may get some really good long setups, maybe not next week but the week after. These things are holding up really really well, a lot of the growth names, the liquid momo leaders. A lot of them are holding up really well or bouncing off the key MAs, very important. I’m actually starting to get excited for some of these stocks. TSLA bouncing nicely off the 20day, PLUG undercut the 20day but now back into range in the base here in the high 8s. (I love undercut’s and reclaims, those are the best ones, when you have like a flag or base and they try to breakdown but they reclaim, that’s a sign of strength). ROKU looking like a champion, this is gonna be the leader of the next run if we get one, just holding up great, just coming out of a year long consolidation, TWTR too, TWTR and ROKU I think are gonna be great once we get a good market again for swing and position trading.
• All a patience game, remember the money is not made trading, the money is made waiting, that’s where the big money is, you have to wait, you have to wait for the big opportunities. And once you’re in a trade you have to wait, it’s all about waiting. The one who can wait the longest, is the one who’s gonna win at this game, and most people are unable to wait, just cannot wait, have to do something all the time. It’s why daytrading is so popular.
• Who cares, guys if you wanna make millions in trading, tens of millions, ignore the news, ignore the macro, it’s all irrelevant. Sometimes good news is bad news, sometimes bad news if good news, you’re never gonna figure it out, just follow the price action, that’s how you make money, trust me on that one. The less you think about China and the Fed and this and that, the more money you’re gonna make. Macro doesn’t matter for us, just trade the setups. Setups are gonna make you money, not anything else. One thing I want you to learn, bc it took me too many years to learn this, but what you need to do is focus on setups. That’s what you need to focus on, bc you can’t control what Trump says or does, what China says or does, what this says or does or that says or does or whatever. What you can focus on is finding good setups and trading them. That’s what you can control, that’s where your focus needs to be, that’s what makes you money. All that other stuff, it’s all bullsh*t. Sometimes stocks go up on bad news, they can go up on good news, they can go down on bad news or they can go down on good news, it’s all a big mindf*ck, this is why most people don’t make it in trading, they can’t take the mindf*ck, they think about things logically. You can’t think about things logically, you just have to follow price, that’s the only logic you need to know.
• How do I come up with ABC lists? Well A list these are like the best growth stocks with the best momo, and also some recent IPOs and stuff, these are like the best ones. Best theme, best earnings growth, best momo. B stocks are not as good, they may be a little bit more illiquid, a little bit slower moving, stuff like NVDA and NFLX, great stocks but just a little bit choppier and not as fast moving as many others. Also a little bit more speculative names that I think are exciting but maybe just not institutional quality yet. Then I have my C watchlist, here there’s a lot of very slow moving names, like JD, great momo stock, China leading stock, but it’s a slow name, same with BABA. Pretty much A stocks, those are the ones you want to trade, and B stocks these are the ones you want to trade sometimes, and C stocks I’m not trading very often, unless they do something crazy, a lot of them are very thin, slow moving names.
• I look at relative momo, I look at the stocks that are up the most in the past 1/3/6/12/18months etc, I look at the couple of percent of the strongest names, that’s how you find the best stocks. The strongest stocks are the ones that make the best shorts and the best longs.
• I pretty much trade only three setups, and one of them is the gapper on some news, usually earnings but could be other stuff too [ep]. I’m gonna show you one of the first ones where I actually saw the potential of these types of trades. SCTY in 2013. So SolarCity pretty much guided, how much they’re gonna deploy and they beat analyst estimates by a big margin, so this candle here is where I bought it, pretty much orhs. So it gapped up, had big volume, had been going sideways for many months, gapped up on this big news, big surprise to the market, exactly what we want to see in these gapper trades. I had no idea what I was doing, but I remember this trade distinctively bc it went up 50% in like 7 trading sessions, that’s when I realised holy sh*t, there is something here, bc I know I had seen these types of moves before, but I really couldn’t put my finger on it, like what the hell is going on here. So this is where I learned the setup (stockbee), when you have a big surprise, and the stock gaps up on big vol, those things can make enormous moves. We’ve seen some of these this year, LVGO, this thing gapped up here [7/4/2020] on earnings guidance, I bought it 33s, this thing more than tripled. FSLY is one we bought 29s or something [7/5/2020], went up 250%.
• With a 5k account you can also swingtrade, but like smallcap momo leaders. The only reason I don’t trade smallcaps is they’re too illiquid, but there is momo leaders in the smallcap space too. Just for me they’re untradeable.
• It’s all about scaling, if you double your account, you should double your size. But a lot of people are unable to do that, they keep wiring out, just keep doing their thing over and over again. There’s nothing wrong with it but that’s not really for me, I always wanted to see how good I could get, how much I could make.
• Cleaning up some backwatch lists, oh BLDP, mid/low 14s, this is the day we bought it [29/6/2020], that was a great great htf breakout. Guys this is a perfect htf breakout, look at this thing, makes a big move, and starts building a base, then when the 20day caught up, this thing broke out on high volume, then it went up like 47% from entry in less than 2 weeks.
• Weekly charts are great on institutional quality stocks, not on random smallcap pumps.
• LL, can you guys find the htf on this thing? First one to identify the htf will get 100k from me. 14s you’re right, 14.50 breakout.

Misc:

• Oh trading is so easy, trading is so easy, everyone can do it, everyone can do it, not, not, not not not not not.
• Don’t waste your weekend doing fun stuff with your family, you need to study the market.
• My equity peaked somewhere early last week, close to 18M, I wanted to get to 20.

#masterclass #shorting

#ep #earnings