16 [GOLD and SILVER! Oct 24, 2019]


  • NOW, the numbers look good, they were losing money then 2015 turned profitable and gone from losing 7c to making $4.29 next year estimated, and the stock has responded and was almost a ten bagger, now obviously pulled back a bit, but this is what happens when a stock grows over a long period of time, this is how the price res
  • TWTR just cannot make money, this is now what you want to see they expect to make 53% less next year compared to this year, and this is why the stock is going down, growth estimates are extremely important since the market is a forward looking mechanism. They missed on both eps and rev, this is not good at all.
  • MX very choppy earnings, no real trend, good Q then bad Q, grow a lot then lose a lot, no real trends and this is why the stock has gone sideways for so many years, the earnings they haven’t gone anywhere.
  • MKSI current Q look sh*tty but are expected to grow 50% next year that’s why the stock is higher. This is something I may trade, but no, this is not the kind of stock that has been great to buy on earnings usually, gapped up faded here, gapped up then went sideways 4months before a breakout, here it had a nice day but then faded next few weeks, here a gap up but would have stopped out, past few years just hasn’t been a great stock to buy on earnings.
  • I use a few services where I can see old earnings, Optionshawk and Jaguar Analytics, those are two morning emails I get, then I also look at the gappers. I normally look at the ones with big growth numbers.
  • MSFT this is a very slow grower, slow and steady, one of the biggest stock market winners, since 1986 this thing is up 100,000%, amazing. I’m gonna show you just consistent growth, this is how a diversified company looks, look how consistent these numbers are, 15/20% growing year after year after year, an investing type of stock not a trading type.
  • ALGN this thing has gone from a growth stock to not a growth stock, look at 2016-2017 when it went up a lot grew earnings was a great growth stock and now they have zero growth, rev still growing but eps actually declining a little bit.
  • TSLA current Q earnings are sh*t but look at the estimates for next year, look how much they’re been losing and now next year estimates to go profitable, that’s why this stock is up pm. On the weekly it’s at a big area of resistance, this 294 area has been a big big area the past 5years, been res and sup, question is if it’s gonna be res again. It’s kinda fading a bit pm, thinking about shorting some use a few dollar stop, prob gonna stop me out but worth a try. Got stopped out, is strong could be a buyable gap up I just don’t trust it, TSLA has been known to manipulate the numbers before. It’s a lcap name gapping up 20% that’s a big move for a lcap name, I just find it hard to buy big gap ups on these big stocks generally. TSLA took out lods but I did not reshort. Okay vwap is key here, ideally it starts failing around vwap and we get an entry for a short. Okay so far TSLA couldn’t hold vwap, it’s kinda chopping around at vwap, I would say rn the chart’s more bullish than bearish, looks like it found support at vwap. Now it’s below vwap again, I shorted some, using this lh as my stop. TSLA now this 1min 20ema has started to act as resistance, there may be an add spot here 294s with a $2/3 stop. Oh damn TSLA should have added I guess, the right move was to add on it when it failed at vwap, this is what I see; a high, fades back finds support, tries to reclaim vwap put in a lh, bounces off vwap put in another lh, just chopping around, stays below vwap and it’s a sign of weakness, also look at the longer term chart is at a big resistance area.
  • PLUG bought some this is in the right sector rn fuel cell stocks have been hot lately, not gonna use today lows as stop, gonna use yday lows, it’s not a great setup I just wanna be in it, bought a small position. BLDP same, you can’t buy a big position on these things, I just wanna be in the team so buying some with wide stops, if these things get going they could be up 300% before year end.
  • GLD is moving too, NUGT and JNUG don’t look good lots of overhead resistance, I may buy some NUGT here but missed my entry, entry was low 28s I don’t wanna chase it, maybe if it pulls back a little bit. If I would buy it here have to use a dollar stop, okay bought 10kshares starter, GLD looks so damn good. If you look at GLD it’s nowhere near orhs, but NUGT is very close to hods, actually showing rs I’ll add to it small.
  • USLV failed at top of range now fading back, looks like they’re failing to breakout for now, stopped out tiny position tiny loss. You can see on the 60min, it’s been trying to clear out of this range over and over again and eventually it’s gonna succeed, the more times a breakout/support level is tested, the higher probability of an eventual breakout or breakdown. USLV back near highs, well I guess I have to rebuy it.
  • ORLY looks really good, it’s been building hls for 2years, now it’s breaking out of a range, but it’s a very very slow mover, on the weekly looks so good.
  • I’m gonna show you an epic breakout DIS on the montly, this is a 3year flag with hls, then it gapped up on I think they started a streaming service, it’s still holding this gap up surfing this rising 10monthly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it went to 200. You can really trade off the longer term charts especially these lcap stocks that move slower. It’s the same patterns over and over again, but the longer timeframes you use the more you need to use fundamental analysis, there needs to be a reason for the thing to go up, you can’t buy a random flag on some sh*tty stock, needs to be earnings power or some kind of a driver for the stock into the future.

#earnings #ep

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