143 [Watch this if you want to learn to play defense when you are heavily long and the market pulls back! Jun 24, 2020]

  • Did something I haven’t done in 9 years, missed the market open. Missed the first 10 mins, but everything I own is up, luckily didn’t miss any big trading opps. I’m getting complacent, I’ve never been this lazy in my trading career.
  • NVAX up 60% from entry now, this is the power of this setup, guys learn this setup. If there’s only one setup you need to learn it’s the htf. Okay I’m gonna size down some more, down to 1/3 size, I’m gonna also use today’s lows as stop. I refuse to give back any profits on this, this is one of those scenarios, it’s getting extended, it’s 36% above the 10day, it can obv get more extended but it’s just an odds game rn, I’m not gonna trail it with the 10day. It’s gonna be a short setup tomos, so I’m selling aggressively here.
  • Yeah NVAX, I remember that, briefly took out lods, stopped out those of you with hard stops. That happens, this is the reason most people don’t make it in this business, they can’t handle these types of things, instead they start revenge trading, they start chasing. You have to wait for perfect setups, sometimes sh*t happens, you have to suck it up. You have to take a step back, regroup. Most people are just not able to do that, they can’t take the pain. It’s painful. If I had gotten stopped out of this thing, after taking a good size, with a perfect entry, I would be salty too. You should always obey your stops, the reason it’s hit doesn’t matter.
  • SHOP, sold some yesterday, is reversing a bit, gonna sell some more. If it closes weak gonna sell even more. Is one of my biggest positions so just downsizing a bit.
  • Russell rebalance doesn’t affect us, guys just stick to your setups. Somethings will go up, somethings will go down, adhere to your stops, don’t worry about the rebalancing. There’s always something, news, macro events, index additions/deletions, don’t worry about them, worry about your stops.
  • FMCI, sold about 1/3 of my position, took out yesterday’s lows and also now breaking below rising 10day, so I’m lightening down. This is how you lighten down on a momo stock, once they start breaking support areas. And if it closes below the 10day I’m gonna sell even more, and then I’m gonna use the 20day as my final stop. This is how you do it, you never know how high these things can go, so you wait for them to start showing weakness.
  • LVGO, still trailing yes there’s been no reason to sell it yet. Just bc it’s having a down candle doesn’t mean it’s gonna go to zero, let it pull back a little bit, it’s gonna find support, and if it doesn’t you just sell it. Don’t worry about these things, every stock is gonna stop you out sooner or later. Yes, we are pulling back a little bit rn, and it’s when stocks pull back that we see which ones are strong and which are not. and if you’re too scared, and you don’t want to give back too much profits, just sell some into strength.
  • BYND, it closed right at the 10day yesterday, it’s actually below yesterday’s lows rn, but this one never really went so I’m trying to be proactive, if it takes out lods I’m gonna sell about 1/3 of what I have left. I’m trying to be proactive on some things, just get off margin if the pullback widens. Just trying to get rid of the names that never really went.
  • You can see some stocks are holding up really well, PDD green on the day, ZM is very extended yet barely down on the day, MELI barely down, many stocks are above yesterday’s lows, so you can already see strength in many of my portfolio holdings. QQQs, SPYs, Russel all well below yesterday’s lows but many of my stocks barely red on the day, and those that are are above yesterday’s lows. You can clearly see the rs, so instead of panicking and thinking these stocks will all go to zero, this is the time when you spot opportunity. When the market is is a big uptrend, down days are when the big money is made, just by stalking strong things. The market will tell you, the stocks which want to go up, they will tell you they want to go up, sometimes they will yell at you, it’s all about listening.
  • The only way you learn is the hard way. You will never learn to trade from a book. You can get trading ideas from a book, trading concepts from a book, but the only way you learn, is to learn the lessons for yourself, from the pain of doing the wrong thing, from taking a loss, or not taking a loss, or from missing out, all of these things. They’re all very painful, all of them. It’s only from the pain that you can learn.
  • FSLY, if anything I’m looking to short more, but I need a range to develop on the 60min, maybe if we get a range mid/late day. This one I didn’t adhere to the trailing stop, bc look at this thing, it was at $11 three months ago, now over $80 yesterday, that’s just insane. Can it go to $100? Sure, but at a certain point the odds just go away, like yesterday this thing was 30% above the 10day, and 50% above the 20day, so it was just super extended. This was the perfect kinda parabolic setup, that’s why I sold the stock and went short. I was short 27kshares overnight, looking to add more, there’s no support until the rising 10day, 20% lower, lot of room for this thing to fall. So first I entered orls yesterday, but got stopped out, then I entered when i started breaking 60min ranges, 79.30s, then I added when it was about to break vwap high 78s, then I covered 3kshares before the close. All very specific, you gotta have a very specific method, you can’t do anything randomly, you have to do everything systematically. Just do the same thing over and over and over again.
  • A melt up is when a stock keeps grinding higher in a parabolic fashion, just keeps going for a while. Especially when something is already extended, that looks vulnerable to a pullback but just keeps going.
  • MRVL that’s a very good setup btw, it’s a very clean stock, had a nice clean move, pulled back flagged, had another breakout, clean move, now it’s going sideways, just surfing the rising 20day, and it’s showing rs, that’s a very good setup. Actually it’s a little too slow, ADR3.6%, I’m not gonna trade it no matter what, but very clean setup.
  • You pull the weeds, water the flowers, it’s like managing a garden. Like Peter Lynch once said; Hold the winners, sell the losers. Hold the ones showing rs, sell the ones that are not. Trading is not about rocket science, it’s about gardening. You don’t need to be very smart, you just don’t have to be dumb.
  • Yeah the real setup doesn’t have to be on the daily chart, like NKLA for eg, when we bought it two days ago, it didn’t really trigger on the daily chart yet, but it did trigger on the 60min, you can clearly see these hls, this range, then it broke out of that range. But it didn’t break out on the daily chart until yesterday, that’s where I added more. So sometimes you can see something on the 60min vs the daily and vice versa. You just have to learn the patterns, it’s the same patterns occurring over and over again.
  • I’m aware always how much I’m long and short, nothing super exact, I tried to keep track of it to the penny but I feel it’s too much. If you start focusing too much on the small details you kinda miss the big picture. And I’d rather nail the big picture than be obsessed over the tiny details.
  • One thing I do, I have alerts set like 5mins before every even hour. Bc when I stop streaming I’m not at a computer, I have my laptop with me, so my alarm on my phone goes off I know it’s 5mins, I just flip up my computer, I look at how the 60min candles are developing, if there’s nothing to do then I don’t do anything.
  • DKNG starting to look vulnerable here. I just shorted 20kshares, if the market keeps pulling back this thing the rising 50day is 21% lower. It’s below the 10/20day, starting to build lhs on the 60min and the EMAs on the 60min turning lower. There is some momo shift going on here, this is a very extended name.
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