• There’s so many things to watch, this is the hardest thing in a market like this, don’t get reckless guys, when things get too easy that’s when it’s most dangerous, don’t get reckless don’t do anything stupid. I kinda love and hate these kinda markets, there’s so much to do but it’s also so stressful, and I’m just like super competitive, I feel like if I didn’t maximise the opportunity I’m gonna feel like sh*t, hate myself, but you also can’t be too early on these things bc then you blow up or at least take some decent losses. You gotta wait for these perfect opportunities, when the amateur shorts get squeezed out, that’s when you hit them, and even then it can be tricky, bc it may be really choppy.
• GME, this is a pure short squeeze, like people call stocks that go up squeezes, this is a squeeze, not something that goes up 10% in 3 days, this is a squeeze. We’re already getting articles of funds getting squeezed on their puts and stuff. I did a tiny tiny starter premarket, but yeah I hope this thing goes to 200, it’s a pure short squeeze at this point. Okay so this is actually 50% above it’s aths, okay. So it’s holding above vwap, looks like it’s kinda building hls.
• GME short orls, stopped out straight away. Okay GME looks like it took out lods, I shorted about a sh*t ton on it, with a set risk. GME has been halted for a while now. GME is right on vwap, idk if it’s trying to reclaim or if it’s failing. GME testing vwap again, I think this is either gonna keep going and make a big move higher, or it’s gonna make a big move lower. I have 80kshares GME. Okay it reclaimed vwap, I sized down. Actually if you include the pm data it’s at vwap now, so it depends if you include the pm or not, kinda annoying. And now they pulled the bids, this is called a vwap fail, I wasn’t looking at pm data before, I added back half of what I covered but we’ll see if it fails the vwap again. Stopped out, alright decent 900k loss, not even top 5 of my losses, the higher it goes the better.
• I hate trading the 1min but these kinda stocks you just have to, they’re so fast, like GME has an ADR of 24.5%, insane, one tick could be a 5/10% move, so out of the gate I usually trade these on the 1min but I hate trading on the 1min really.
• GME if you look at the 60min, I mean hate to be a hindsight warrior, but should could woulda bought it. We talk about these patterns all the time, it’s a htf, boom just by being able to identify something like this you’re gonna outperform 99% of the phds in the world, this is a masters degree right here, you’re set for life. Unfortunately I didn’t long it but it’s the same pattern over and over again, same pattern, they happen on the weekly, daily, 60min, 5min, 1min, choose your timeframe. I focus on the daily and 60min but sometimes I’ve traded like DQ for e.g. it was a little bit choppy on the daily but then you look on the weekly like wow look at this flag, that’s why I bought it.
• I have a little bit of an adrenaline rush, it’s just stressful, it’s always stressful when you’re in these fast moving stocks with a lot of size, bc if you’re one second too late it can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars of missed profits or losses.
• GME trade is my best trade this year, it’s my biggest losing trade this year, but it’s my best trade bc if I hadn’t stopped out I would be down like 3/4M rn, take your losses, I can’t believe some people struggle taking losses it’s just incredible, I mean we can all be a little bit stubborn sometimes, but you just gotta get out, just hit it with a market order, I do that’s why I create these wicks. The best trades are the trades you take a loss, and it doesn’t even matter if you’d have made money if you didn’t take a loss, it’s completely irrelevant, you’re a trader your job is to protect capital and then take opportunities as they appear.
• Now this GME I’m gonna look for an opportunity later, but you gotta wait for say the first red 5min candle or something like let’s say it has a crack, gets below vwap, bounces, fails vwap and makes a another lh, you need to wait for an area where it makes sense where you can have a set r/r. At this point the downside is easily $50 so like risk $5/10. This is what many people do if they look at the 1min, and I was this way too at the beginning, I kept taking these small losses and they kinda compound, and then when I nailed the move I was just making back losses, just stupid.
• Okay downticks, and now it’s halted, I got filled on 300 shares on that little crack and now it’s halted. And now it could literally open up at 100 after the unhalt, that’s what makes these things so tricky to trade. And also you can’t chase these types of candles with size, I had a very small order in like 1/5th size, bc it could very easily go back and take out the highs. You know they suck shorts in, every single daytrader who likes to short stocks is watching GME, there’s so many eyes on this thing. So now what I would like to see, if this thing can make a lh or if it has some kinda rangebreak to the downside, otherwise oh nevermind I got filled on the starter, I’m gonna use a wide stop. Oh GME no, so what I wanna see to add to this is if it bounces and that bounce starts failing, already down 35% from the highs, these things can go down as fast as they went up.
• GME I have 20kshares 132 average, it’s hard to trade when they get halted stuff like that, dangerous with this size. Woah I’m green on the day GME, and I had 1/5th size, now imagine if I had full size, this is what set r/r is all about, you lose one then you make five, you make ten times that. I was in full size short got stopped out, and then I reshorted on 1/5th size, actually since the stop went up another 70% I guess the dollar position was about 40% of what I had but still, partial size I made it back. This thing could be back to 40 by tomos, but I hope it bounces back to vwap and above to low/mid hundreds would be great. So GME is back to vwap. So GME looked like it failed vwap again, I did add a little bit. Okay GME failed at vwap now several times, I want to add more, ideally it goes sideways for another 30/60mins, fails more at vwap and then loses this 90/high 80s area, this thing could easily go red on the day.
• It’s a little bit frothy, any time the markets get like this, my experience is it’s usually best to take some chips off the table, when all these wsb guys get the most euphoric that’s the time, but on the other hand things could go crazier too so who knows. Gonna sell these M and JWN, idc just wanna clean up my portfolio, takes too much focus trying to keep track of these things, I’m just gonna get rid of these smaller positions, usually I regret it later but I just want to focus on the more liquid and bigger positions. I’m getting rid of a bunch of stuff, I have too many positions anyway, I want to have a clear head. I refuse to be a victim of the market, I always want to be in control, I always want to be in control of my trading. Yeah things could pullback and reclaim, idc, I just wanna clear my head. When I feel like I’m not in control like there’s too many things happening, a bunch of stocks everything making big moves, I just wanna be in control, I’m not gonna be a victim of the markets. A lot of people they’re just a victim of the markets, they get thrown left and right depending what the market does, don’t be that guy, you need to be in control, there’s always new opportunities around the corner, especially in this market, it’s insane so don’t be afraid of missing out.
• BB shorted lods. BB I took a tiny loss on it, I shorted when it failed the vwap, when it cracked, took out orls, tried to rally, put in a lh, then when it lose the vwap here that’s where I shorted. And now it reclaimed, the higher it goes the better, this one is actually really liquid.
• PLTR omg, and I didn’t even get filled on all I wanted 200kshares I got filled on 175kshares, it’s always the best ones are the hardest to buy. I bought Friday, I’m up 1.5M on it, so the 900k GME loss is really nothing, over the weekend I’ve literally done nothing since and I’m up 1.5M, just to put things into perspective. Man PLTR what a reversal, that’s why you need to feed the ducks.
• BTC look at how perfectly it bounced off the 50day, didn’t even touch it created a wick and now it’s kinda breaking out of this little bounce range.
• CCIV I got stopped out initially then I rebought it 100kshares, in hindsight I should have done more bc the volume was pretty big. Just always play defence first, defence first, don’t do reckless things. Like I’m fine with selling this, idc if CCIV goes to 50, actually I will care, but I know I protected myself.
• ETHE bought some orhs. ETHE stopped out.
• TSLA bought orhs. TSLA broke out, I know it has earnings in two days but this thing could go 1000+ before earnings. Omg TSLA, htf break, htf. TLSA stopped out, what a reversal, there’s just so many, you had some major good looking breakouts and they’re failing. If some of these things hold up well, I may rebuy and just the initial orl, I’m gonna ignore this wick here.
• PDD also bought this China name that broke out, looked really good in premarket and now bought orhs. I bought PDD and I bought a big position, it’s a very specific setup, looks just like SPWR looked like here [14/12/2020], or ENPH [11/12/2020]. Just on something like SPWR there’s been 3/4 of them, NIO also had 3/4, TSLA had 3/4 of them also and today had another one. If you’re only gonna identify one pattern it’s gonna be these htfs, the stocks with the most momo, that go sideways and start surfing the 10/20day. If things close strong and everything bounces, and shows there is strength, I may rebuy PDD, bc it is a very very good setup, I may rebuy if it reclaims vwap or something, but prob less size since the stop is gonna be wider.
• JWN, guys we did it, who would have thought department stores. M caught up, and again JWN, if you don’t know what this pattern is you have a lot of work to do. It’s the same thing over and over again. And this is also why you trade higher ADR stocks, M has an ADR of 7% and it’s up 18% so 2.5x ADR. JWN has an ADR 5.6% and it’s up like 12%. This is why you focus on higher ADR stocks, bc higher ADR stocks make bigger moves that’s the point. And if you had bought a stock with ADR 3%, it’s very unlikely that stock would have been up more than 10%, everything else equal same sector etc.
• PINS, what a pos, if this thing doesn’t close green I’m getting out of it, this is unacceptable price action in a market like this. That’s why I sold NFLX, it was above my stop but closed weak, why should I hold it when everything else is going crazy, I’d rather get other opportunities it’s a waste of time, you want to be in the fastest moving stuff.
• FUTU, but not today since it’s only day one, it put in a sideways on Friday so it kinda flagged, it’s like a mini htf on the 60min.
• It’s just so exhausting, like I moved probably 50M of stock so far today if not more, it’s like a game, like I’m addicted to hearts of iron 4 rn, I pulled two all nighters the past like 3 nights, it’s a lot of numbers, the same thing with trading, it’s just a numbers game, numbers that obviously translate to real life, in both a good and bad way depending how you view things, but it’s all a numbers game.
• COMPQ had a reversal, found support, not the end of the world, yeah I think it just feels dangerous out there, these types of froth in my experience, usually the r/r is not great going forward, I’m just trying to be careful. I didn’t get to this level of trading, going from pretty much 0 to not 0 anymore, by doing dumb sh*t. Yeah I’ve done a lot of dumb sh*t in my trading career, but it’s all about limiting the dumb sh*t. If you focus on cutting out the dumb sh*t you don’t need to make a lot of things correct to make a lot of money in the markets, that’s the beautiful part.
• That’s another thing, a lot of people are very emotional, they’re either euphoric or they got killed, there are shorts and longs that got killed and made fortunes today, just don’t get emotional that’s when bad things happen, if things went sh*t for you today, things can get worse, and even if also things were really good, don’t do anything crazy bc you can turn it to sh*t by being emotional. And like if you followed your rules, anytime you feel fearful or euphoric, nothing wrong with sizing down or closing stuff, bc you’re not trading on an edge anymore, you’re trading on emotions, that’s not a good thing.
• I think that’s the problem with a lot of people who have issues taking losses, they feel like there’s not gonna be another trade around the corner, but you gotta get out of that mindset, bc there’s always another trade around the corner, always. I’ve missed so many trades, f*cked up so many trades in my trading career, you do not need to do things perfectly, always play defence first, always. When you start feeling fearful or euphoric, always play defence first, remember, that’s what’s gonna keep you in the game. You may be wrong once or twice or ten times, but then one time you’re right it’s gonna save your account. It’s all about staying in the game, you can’t make money if you lose all or a big part of your money, the key to making money is not losing your money, that’s it. Making money is easy, avoiding losing money is much harder, identifying good setups especially in a bullish market is the easiest thing, that’s the easiest part of trading. This is just one day out of thousands.

Misc:

• Increase the limit to 14days, we can’t have people coming in here being disrespectful of the chat rules.

#masterclass #shorting #rant