• DPW I got stopped out, and then I was in the kitchen I had an alert set but didn’t hear it, I came back and the stock was in the 4.80s I was like wtf, I would have rebought those 50kshares, maybe even 100kshares but nope, whatever happens.
• ZM here this is a very very bad short setup. You should short breakdowns, when they break ranges to the downside, here it broke a range to the downside [410s], here it broke a range to the downside [400s] that’s when you short, not when it’s already down 5days in a row that’s not a good r/r at all. If you keep doing setups like these you’re not gonna be around for very long. Shorting is the same principal as going long, tight ranges. You have to short them when they’re coming out of a solid range, it’s the same thing, don’t chase longs, don’t chase shorts.
• QS still watching it long short, I really hope it trigger to the long side but I feel it’s gonna start going down unfortunately, gonna get some locates. When it finally pulls back I think it’s easily 30/40% downside, gonna end up like LAZR eventually, but I really wanted more upside in it, I really wanted it to go to high 100s at least. Can’t get fills, it’s going straight down, shorted some orls. So thin man, I had a hard time shorting 30kshares on this thing, it better pullback to 75 now, I need a big pullback in this thing with this tiny size I have, 1/3 of what I wanted.
• Everyone and their mom wants to short this QS. You have to understand how ridiculous this is, F has a mcap of 35B, QS which is a no revenue stock and best case scenario they’re gonna have revenues in the next 5years, they have a mcap of 42B, just to get an idea of where this stock is going.
• BEEM, yeah too thin for me but for small accounts this could be a good setup. Orls, lhs, vwap fails, all of that stuff you know the drill. BEEM orls and straight down since, and this thing could very easily go down to the 20day, may just be getting started on the downside, if the market helps. If you shorted orls I would use a b/e stop, it bounced off the 20ema on the 60min, it’s kinda strong rn but we’ll see.
• Shippers doing really well, I bought these CCL and NCLH, unfortunately I sold down 1/3 into close on both of them, bc they kinda didn’t close as strong as I would have liked.
• TAN shorted some, all these extended sectors they’re pulling back.
• There has been so many warning signs, especially the past 5/6sessions, like yesterday the only stocks that propped the market up were some of these megacaps, and you really don’t want to see that where only a few stocks are pushing the market, and every other stock is stalling or starting to fade.
• I’ve been reducing my exposure on the long side for the past 4/5sessions, and yesterday and today I’ve increased my exposure to the short side, I’m just trying to be careful. I may be wrong but hey, I’d rather be wrong on being too careful than getting killed and giving back a month of profits, I’ve done it too many times, I refuse to be a victim of the markets, I’d rather be proactive than be a victim of the markets.
• PLTR, actually this 26 when it broke down late day yesterday, that was a very good r/r short entry, I missed it.
• APPN for a long it’s on my wl but I’m trying to be careful here, bc I’m seeing too many red flags, at least short term, otherwise I would think this is a pretty decent setup. But as I said before, anytime you have a big big run, that’s when bad things happen, I’m just recognising the signs, really avoiding doing anything crazy here.
• MSTR just selling from yesterday, it wasn’t a good setup, I just thought the momo would keep going for a while. Was a really bad entry, here was the entry [21/12/2020], don’t buy something like this here [28/12/2020] when the entry was here [21/12/2020], learn from the pros, I did it so you don’t have to do it, learn from my mistakes.
• HVBTF, it looks good, actually this is a really good looking htf, very very thin but this is, ideally it goes sideways a bit more.
• Remember guys it’s a good thing these extended stocks pulling back, hopefully they can find support on one of these major MAs like the 20/50day, if they can pullback go sideways for a few weeks/months that’s a good thing, we get new bases to play next year. That’s where you make your money, buying off of solid bases, coming out of a long consolidation or a pullback. That’s where your edge is, let the crazies buy these things here, don’t play the crazy game they’re all gonna go bankrupt, buy off of solid setups, solid bases. Don’t be a victim, be proactive, learn what works, don’t be a victim. It’s a choice, it’s not something that is predetermined by birth, it’s a choice you make.
• Yes I think we need a good decent pullback or a decent sideways consolidation in the major indices, bc rn all the interesting stocks they’re just straight up, there’s no good setups. The good setups you get them when the stock is coming off a pullback or consolidation, when the price is close to the 10/20day and also maybe sometimes the 50day, that’s where the good longs are, that’s where you get good setups, not when everything has been going straight up for a couple of months that’s not a good r/r.
• PINS, could be a short setup sure, so now it’s kinda backside, it was surfing the 20day, look at how long this thing surfed the 20day since like May2020, and now it’s below the 20day, rallying back into the 20day and if it fails here could very easily be a short setup, it could very easily pullback to the 100/150day.
• NOG, yeah it looks like a good setup, oil names are one of the strongest sectors rn, kinda flagging many of them. MRO yeah wow this is a good setup, really is, I’m gonna set an alert on it, nb guys nb. DVN wow, I think they’re all gonna fail bc the market is getting soft but yeah it’s a good setup.
• TNA, this is it guys, this is exactly what I’ve been warning about since last week. Covering tiny just locking in some into weakness.
• ARKK, man I guess yesterday was the entry, and ARKG had a perfect perfect pivot late day, just like PLTR, I should have gone short 50kshares. These ARK etfs are gonna get shelled, all the hottest stocks are in these things. Maybe I’ll keep them in my wl, if we get a good bounce.
• SOXL also losing the 20day, still building a hl but I think I’ll short this one too. Things are starting to get interesting. Did 10kshares of this SOXL, this thing could very easily pullback to the 50day, maybe even the 100day. Gonna use a pretty tight stop for it, either it goes or it doesn’t.
• Accepting your losses is the first step towards profitable trading, most people never get to that point, you need an exit strategy. Bc you have to understand something, when a major index looks like this, the r/r is just not great, it’s good when it’s coming out of a long tight range and these pullbacks to these major MAs, that’s where the r/r is good, but not when it’s already straight up for 7/8months, that’s not a good r/r, and unfortunately that’s where people get the most excited, these hindsight buyers, they think just bc something has been going up that it’s gonna keep going up forever, but that’s not how it works. I’m not calling for a big bad crash here, I’m just saying the r/r to the long side is really bad, bc all these stocks that broke out the past few months here, they’re extended and they’re pulling back, they’re very vulnerable to pullbacks, and as swingtraders we want to avoid that. Something like RIOT, I’m long since here [13/11/2020] my initial entry was in the $3s, I’m gonna get stopped out in the $12s if it pulls back, I don’t wanna ride it back down to $8 or $3, there’s no point, you need to have some kinda exit rules, bc no stock keeps going up forever.
• I wanna clean up my portfolio here, indices are very vulnerable. It’s all about protecting your downside, it’s a choice, you’re either proactive or you’re gonna be a victim, I choose to not be a victim of the markets, it’s a choice I’m actively making. I’m short and mostly in cash, but yeah until your edge presents itself you need to hold cash. It’s not the action that determines success in the markets, it’s the inaction. Successful trading is about waiting, it’s not about trading, it’s about waiting, waiting for those opportunities, waiting for that edge, that’s what successful trading is about. Not buying everything that’s going up, not having an exit strategy and then bragging about your profits bc you were lucky enough to buy in a strong market.
• RMG short yesterday was a good setup, when it broke down here 35s, started breaking down on the 60min, was up 5 days in a row yeah was a parabolic classic setup.
• Even if I’m wrong and all of these things I’ve shorted go straight up and stop me out, at least now I’ve trimmed down my portfolio, and if the market keeps going higher there’s gonna be a lot of new setups, rn they’re not here, and then we can buy some new blood, remember the stocks that did well over the past couple of months bullrun may not be the stocks that are gonna do well in Jan or Feb or Mar. Let the market tell you, and that has to be the basis of what you do next. People are imposing their own opinions and beliefs onto the market and that’s just not a good strategy. Everything you do has to be based on what the market is telling you, not the other way around, bc the market doesn’t even know you exist, the market does what it wants to do, your job is to listen.
• I’ve had days I haven’t traded but I don’t think I’ve ever had two days in a row where I didn’t trade. But I’m an addict, that’s the thing, I’m an addict. I trade too much, I do, I wish I didn’t trade as much. At least I recognise it.
• EEM, finally starting to outperform. The US has been outperforming most markets the past ten years, by a wide margin, I think this next 5/10years emerging markets and the rest of the world is gonna outperform the US. This thing is going sideways, like the 2003-2007 bullmarket, emerging markets were the outperformers, China, SA etc, where the US was lagging. and Now this bullmarket the US has been the outperformer. Man this EEM has ADR0.8%, is there a 3x, ah EDC but this is untradable bc it’ so thin, and still it’s 3x and it’s ADR2.3%. EEM like a month ago it broke out of a 13 year base, think about it, this is a 13year base it broke out of, with hls, this is like a mega flag. I really think these emerging markets are gonna outperform the US over the next 3-5years, bc the US markets they look like this, look at the COMPQ, straight up, this is not a good r/r at all, when you’re so extended, look where COMPQ found support, on the 20/50monthly, that’s where the good r/r is, and now it’s straight up, 64% above the 50monthly, that’s not a good r/r. Then you look at something like EEM, just coming out of a 13year base, with hls, I think the r/r is better here. These things go in cycles.
• I only use 1/5min charts near the open for the orls, and orhs, after the first 10/15mins out of the gate there’s no reason to use those timeframes ever. 30/60/65min it doesn’t matter, the key is that you don’t have that many candles, and you can see a little bit longer back on the intraday timeframe, doesn’t matter, the key is that it’s letting you look at longer term intraday candles. Until 4/5years ago I was using the 30min candles and before the 30min I was never looking at anything but the 5/1min, so my timeframes are constantly getting longer and longer. 1/5min there’s too much noise, it’s gonna mess with your head, the less noise, the less signal you get the better.

Misc:

• Everyday is a trading school guys, everyday I go through setups, longs, shorts, trading concepts, everyday I go through stuff, everyday is a swingtrading school.