9 [Markets back into range after failed breakout attempt. Oct 14, 2019]

  • SES stalking short could be a nice trade here. Shorted some, see what happens, prob gonna stop me out of this starter it’s holding up really well, tried to reclaim vwap but so far failed, if I had locates I would add more when it took out this orl here the first 5min candle. Many times on these high momo stocks I usually get stopped out a couple of times before I nail the trade, I almost never nail them on the first try, and many times not even on the first day I short them. And I got stopped out, now have to wait for a better setup.
  • SES took out orls, now I wanna see a bounce to vwap and if that bounce fails I’m gonna short it again, but I’m not gonna chase this $2 20% move in 2mins, ideally we get a bounce back to high 9s then a fail and reshort. And it doesn’t need to go down, could easily go to $12/13 today, I just want to get some good r/r setups intraday, something where I can risk 50c to potentially make $3/4, that’s what trading is all about. This thing is up 500% in two sessions, pretty nice move, this is exactly the type of setup I look for, big move the previous day and a big big gap up.
  • SES didn’t do the bounce I was hoping for so far, got rejected off the orls, I really wanted one retest of the vwap, doesn’t feel right to chase it down here. Oh come on, sometimes it’s best to chase I guess, now I have to wait for a good entry. Not only did I take a 13k loss I also payed a couple thousand for the locates, for nothing, it didn’t give me a second entry, okay in hindsight I could have reshorted when it took out orls but that was like a 15% candle, that’s a big candle I usually don’t chase things like that, but sometimes it pays to chase, most of the time it doesn’t. The lower it goes the less excited I get over a potential re-entry.
  • SES now it touched vwap but not really like I would like for this thing to overshoot vwap and then slam down, that’s a candle I would short, just one more push through vwap. Okay this is the candle I’m talking about, the overshoot of vwap, this is something I’m willing to go short if it fails, doesn’t have to fail, this is strong wow. Rn I’m not looking to short it this is too strong, gonna take out hods, haven’t seen a stock like this in a while, in hindsight it’s kinda obvious, you have these hls then this perfect range break, exactly the type of setups I look for on the daily/weekly, these types of setups they’re universal, you can use them on any timeframe, but you have to pick the right stocks. Was a 5min halt, okay all the people who had their stops hods got bailed out this candle, I may try to short a few if it takes out 10 to the downside, okay nevermind I just got bailed out by being slow, would have lost 10k instantly. I saw a minor kind of setup here bc it squeezed into hod then it slammed down, like it was gonna have follow through selling after squeezing everyone out.
  • SES okay so I did some shares here, 11kshares half of what I located, it’s a minor setup but is showing some weakness, gonna use 12.60 as stop, so risking bit less than $1 to make a couple of bucks. These types of stocks you don’t get these 20/50R like on the multi month holds, these are more high octane type of stocks, but you can still get some pretty good r/r 5/7R etc. This is a daytrade, unless it closes weak then I’m willing to hold a little bit, and if I can size in more, then if it closes weak I would probably cover half of what I have then maybe hold 1/3 or 1/2 overnight, but it’s not gonna be more than an overnight trade, the borrow cost is so expensive. If it loses 11.60 I’m gonna add another 6kshares, bc now we tried to have a little bit of a bounce, but it couldn’t bounce and if it takes out this range here. Okay so now it’s getting stronger again, if you look at the 1min chart is is kinda building hls here, I am gonna size down if it takes out this candle, I’m very aware it is building hls, 12.40 I’m getting out of half my shares then 12.60 the other half. Okay now it’s breaking down again, no it tried to wash out this is a very bullish candle that happened rn, undercut this range here and these upward sloping emas, and they brought it back up, very bullish sign. Okay I got stopped out.
  • SES I hope this thing keeps halting, I hope it unhalts goes to 14 then halts again. This is what happened on BPTH, homerun trade I had earlier this year, I made 250k on it in a couple of hours here [7/3/2019]. So in the previous week this is up 650% it went from $2 to $15, then on this day here gapped up from $15 to $17, went sideways built hls, intraday breakout, and more than doubled within 30mins, must have halted at least 3/4times. On the last halt this green candle here, I knew if it takes out this green candle I’m gonna go short, which I did I think 10kshares, I think I risked $70k on this trade, and it went from my avg $67 down to like $27. LFIN was exact similar scenario, more than tripled intraday goes absolutely nuts, then it halts on a red candle, goes higher then down and it halts on the down movement, then gaps down like 50% after the halt, just insane you have to be so fast and perfect on these types of names.
  • SES this thing could keep going, don’t think just bc it’s the 3rd halt that it’s gonna be some kind of top, could go to 25 today. So what you wanna see now is some kinda weakness that starts taking out the previous candles so it stops building hls, or you want to see an absolute panic covering move where it goes absolutely crazy, gets halted, halted again then it starts taking out the previous candles, that’s two short scenarios I see from now. Okay so now it’s building a little bit of a range, but I want to see it build a longer range then take it out, if it breaks down now it’s prob gonna bounce on this rising 20ema that’s been acting as support the whole day. Just bc I’m a crackhead I’m gonna short like 1/4 size, if it takes out this 13.60s, just bc it’s built a little bit of a range here, okay that was way too fast I didn’t get filled. On the 5min chart put in the first 5min candle where it took out prev lows, with the exception of here but now it’s much higher so it’s more prone to failure. I did 5kshares at 13.10, bc now it’s losing this rising 20ema that’s been support, now it could do the same thing as before where they buy it up really fast which would be a bullish sign, but now it is trying to break the uptrend. Okay they bought it back up, let’s see if they try to bounce it up towards hods then fail on the bounce, that’s something I would add more size on.
  • SES still building hls, it’s getting really choppy, and it’s still frontside. Okay so now it tried to bounce, and so far it looked like it kinda failed that bounce, so I’m gonna lower my stop now no point having it up here when I can have it down here 13.99. Okay see how this price is riding the 1min 20ema, this is a sign of strength as long as it holds, it’s pretty much building a bullflag intraday. I have some short orders incase it breaks this line, okay yeah so I got stopped in a few more, short 18kshares total now, okay I’m covering some, and now it’s halted, so now I’m instantly up a dollar on it. So now for the first time the 1min 20ema is starting to slope down, so it’s definitely lost some momo.
  • SES so now we’ve found support on this 1min 65ema, I’m gonna put another stop here where I added shares b/e. Not much volume on the sell off yeah doesn’t matter if it’s going down it’s going down, idm if I make money on low volume or high volume, for me price is 90% of it, volume is very easily manipulated especially on the intraday charts. Okay tried to break below this 65ema again and couldn’t do it, just got stopped out of my adds, and now I’m all out, should have been more aggressive with covers. There’s not gonna be anything here now for at least an hour, kept building hls here and has reclaimed this 1min 20ema support line.
  • SES okay now on the 1min looks like it wants to rebreak this 65ema to the downside, has been building lhs, actually no I’m not gonna touch it I don’t really trust it, on the 1min looks like there’s a lot of room to the downside but if you look on the 5min this 20ema is still there, prob gonna find support there then stop me out, it’s not really lining up on all timeframes like I like to see. Okay SES now trying to break lower, trying to break below this 1min range but the 20ema on the 5min is acting as support, I’m not doing anything as I don’t see that big of an edge here. This thing could actually work now just bc it exhausted everyone, like me I tried to short it 2/3x and there’s prob people super exhausted from trying to short it over and over, wouldn’t surprise me if it fades back to vwap, that’s a classic play exhaust everyone then works.
  • SES damn it broke lower. So on the 5min just undercut this rising 20ema which has been support, we’ll see if this can actually go back to vwap or if it’s just gonna undercut and go higher. I’m not in it, I kinda exhausted myself and I just didn’t want to take another 3.5* setup, I just don’t see a setup here it’s too choppy. You know what it kinda looks weak here, tight range. Now found support and put in a bit of lhs again, kinda building a longer term intraday range. Okay SES about to take out the highs now. Wow what a beast, not sure about potential setup rn, have to wait a bit.
  • SES failed the 1min rising 20ema, that was a minor entry point, I did a couple 4kshares horrible slippage. If this bounce starts failing that’s when I’m gonna try to build size, now we’re getting late day and the stock is seriously over-extended, can it go higher yes but late day that’s usually when stocks start caving in, bc buyers just give up. Looks like it had a shakeout to the downside, wants to keep going higher I think, I got stopped out of my starter. The setup is coming, now it’s really starting to get extended up 300% on the day, crazy stuff. Alright so now we’ve had a 1min candle, wow they bought it up amazing. So on the 5min it needs to take out this 21.55 area. Oh damn now I wanna see a bounce here, I don’t wanna chase that candle, would love to see a bounce back to high 21s at least then a rejection at least, don’t wanna chase this 13% move. Okay wow that’s a sick rejection candle, 7% 1min candle, but still not seeing a setup.
  • SES now it has built a bit of a range here, but on the 5min kinda found support on the rising 10ema just like it did here, so idk. So now it’s trying to bounce after this pullback, and if it starts failing this bounce that’s when I’m gonna look for a setup, I don’t wanna risk more than a dollar, from where it is now it’s gonna pullback $5/10 over the next couple of sessions. If you look at this in hindsight looks like a perfect long setup but not for me, for me it’s hard to go long a stock up 500% in a couple of days, 99% of the time it’s not gonna go higher, moves like this they’re very rare. Every time this thing takes out highs I get more and more excited, either for later today or tomos, preferably tomos, this is potentially setting up to be a 2/300k trade tomos if it sets up well. As long as it keeps going up I’m watching mostly the 1min, I rarely watch the 1min but on these kinda fast super stocks you almost have to do it, bc sometimes you don’t see it on the 5/60min but it’s very clear on the 1min.
  • SES you gotta stop out no matter what, I usually always have hard stops, sometimes you get sh*tty slippage but you don’t want to get stuck in something like this on the short side, super dangerous. Btw I shorted some, had a stop, it lost this range here and this ema, prob gonna stop me out but it’s kinda getting to a point it’s not gonna go up forever, it’s getting late day, had a gap up, first leg higher, sideways, another leg higher, sideways, another leg higher, it’s not gonna go on to infinity, eventually it’s gonna top out, now it’s all about taking these setups, I wouldn’t be surprised if it pulls back to 17/18 before the close, I also wouldn’t be surprised if it goes higher but now you just have to take your shots. I’m down about 40k on it today, I just didn’t see this thing going to 26, but honestly I think I traded it correctly, when I saw the setups I took them, and I stopped out that’s the most important thing, I took a bunch of small/mid sized losses and traded it correctly, I wouldn’t honestly trade it differently than I did, it’s just one of those that goes and that’s what stop losses are for, when the backside comes I’m gonna make 1/200k.
  • SES okay so it bounced so far on the 1min rising 65ema. Okay it’s going down now, I think this could go down to 16 or so potentially if it gets going, I may double my size if I see a good tight setup, but rn I’m gonna cover some, covered 1500shares, should probably cover more 3/4kshares or something but I want the big trade, that’s just how I’m wired I can’t help myself. So now below this 23.10 area could be an add spot, ah I missed it didn’t get filled, but now it’s kinda put in a lh and you could use that lh as your stop on the adds. Now it’s halted to the downside, this might be the momo shift, but it’s still not really backside, on the 5min chart still resting on the rising 20ema, ideal scenario it bounces back to 22/23 chop around then break a range to the downside, that would be the end.
  • SES getting ready to cover some into weakness on the unhalt, covering some and gonna lower my stop to b/e. Okay so SES is kinda backside now, below 21 I’m gonna short some more. Remember the same way it went up up up it could go down down down. Gonna tighten up both of my stops significantly. Covered a few more on this flush, now I’m green on the day, okay I’m gonna cover a bunch more, covered about 1/3, still 20% lower to the vwap. If it closes like this I’m not gonna hold any of it overnight. Stopped out the rest, really hope this thing gaps up tomos.
  • The past couple of months there’s been a lot of low float runners but they always faded on the first day, none of them had any follow through, so I think a lot of shorts have gotten comfortable in the past couple of months, I see this cycle has repeated over and over again since I started trading, you get these periods when the first day runners keep failing intraday on the first day for months, then you get a runner that doesn’t fade and just keeps going and going, and all these shorts get trained to short the first day, then something like this comes around and they’re f*cked. I never short the first day, it’s stupid.
  • I scale in all the time when I’m going for big size. Most of my trades I usually get in all at once, but on the bigger ones I usually scale in.
  • I just need a win, these periods happen a few times per year, it’s part of the game just have to man up and stay patient, that’s the only way, bc I know the good times are gonna be back, I know there’s gonna be a period of a few weeks/months where I’m gonna make at least 1M, I just have to wait for that time.
  • Ideal market for my setups, a bullmarket with very little volatility, and good breadth where a lot of stocks go up. If you look at the indices, you want a market that looks like this [Jan-May2019] goes up up up with very shallow drawdowns, also like late2016-early2018, in a market like that you can be 150% long and you really don’t have to do anything, you can just sit and wait for months and everyday you’re making money, these are the market conditions I have made millions in a very short amount of time, and more importantly you don’t have to work hard for it, things just work.
  • SDC tried to bounce yday, had a nice bounce intraday gonna show you guys the 5min, this is a daytrading setup I used to play all the time, when a stock is over extended either to the up or downside, you buy the orb, here 10.59, set a stop in this case 20/30c, went up over $1, easily a 3R setup intraday. You can make a very good living if you successfully trade those type of stocks.
  • NAT it’s not up a lot, the past 3/4 sessions it’s up 10% that’s nothing, it needs to extend, I want it to go straight up have big up days, look the the 60min it’s kinda stepping higher, there’s no over extension here, rn there’s nothing here, I would even look for it to go sideways let the MAs catch up then there’s maybe even a long setup.
  • INMD is really strong recent ipo, big growth.

#shorting #masterclass

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