60 [Shorting Tesla, a potential MILLION dollar opportunity if done right. Feb 5, 2020]

  • TSLA I shorted some 882 tiny starter, now it’s really speeding up yday and today pm, this is almost like a dream scenario, if it can go 1000 or something in a straight line that would be perfect, but yeah this is pretty crazy. It’s trying to test this rising vwap premarket. TSLA looked parabolic multiple times. I shorted it, held it for a few days, made a little bit of money, but then I got stopped out for a small loss. Overall it was a breakeven or slightly green trade. Then here I shorted it again, I ended up taking a loss on these trades. Now, the difference now, it’s sped up. It was kinda grinding, grinding, grinding, and now, this is sped up action. That’s the difference. This kind of momentum is not sustainable. I’ve seen this happen so many times. But having said that, I don’t know where the top is going to be, this is why I’m waiting for a stock to start going lower to add any size, and build ranges. This thing could go to 1500 today I have no idea, but it will have a big pullback, but is it at these levels, or 500 pts higher idk.
  • TSLA monthly crazy crazy chart, I remember trading TSLA back in 2013 when it was sub 100, had an earnings gap, if I have just held ha. TSLA has a range here 874 which also happens to be the vwap. This thing could literally do anything, could go to 600 today, went higher than anyone thought possible and could pullback more than anyone thinks possible. These are the stocks I live for tbh, you’re not going to see this very often, this kind of craziness.
  • TSLA I shorted some 875s here, so I have 2200shares short now, took out pm vwap level but not out of the woods yet, gonna lower stop for the rest. I shorted some more 860, straight down so far, short 3800shares 872 avg, so far risking about 40k. The thing with this you don’t even have to nail the top with full size, there’s gonna be so much downside in this, so much backside on it, plenty of opp to add more size. Rn this is good that I’m well in the money rn on these shares, takes a little bit of the stress out of it, closing in on 100k so far. TSLA bouncing a little bit, lets see how it acts around vwap, this is key. TSLA strong so far, I really don’t want it to take out hods bc that would make the trade very choppy. Trading record volume on the 60min, gonna have an insane volume day today. Super strong held the vwap so far, not great for me, they bought up the opening dip, stopped me out. Alright now it’s all about waiting for another setup.
  • TSLA was up 20% yday and it’s only up 15% today, 20% would put it at 950, if it hits 1000 would be up 27% on the day. How do I stay so calm? Well I’m not that calm. I mean, one – I’ve been here before. And two, I’ve seen this movie so many times. It’s gonna be a huge trade, so I don’t really worry about that. Right now it’s just going straight up, there’s no setup there, so not even really looking at it. Let it do what it has to do, there’ll probably be a bunch of funds who’ll blow up on this thing. But there will be some epic sh*t on the downside eventually. I just wish I had traded it on the long side, it’s so easy in hindsight, but it is what it is, I wish I was a genius, but I’m really not. I really am not.
  • TSLA let’s see how this first red 5min candle acts here, just been a bunch of green candles in a row, could be a starter entry at the lows of this red 5min candle potentially. I added some 1kshares, just a starter position here. So far held very well kinda put in another hl on the 5min chart. When this thing is backside I’m gonna be short 5/6kshares on this thing, rn just 1kshares starter, this is the biggest trading opp I’ve seen in a while, just do the math. Even if you take ten of those starter losses, when you finally nail the trade, you’re going to make 2, 3, 4, 5x the amount you lost initially. Or maybe 10 times the amount. That’s what trading is all about, small losses, big wins. I’m kind of a home run trader, not one of these traders that goes for singles. You know, I really want home run trades, and sometimes I can have a lot of losses in a row.
  • TSLA I’m trying to figure out where the key levels are, I’m thinking 892 is one, 875 may be another including pm data, idk too early to tell. Hasn’t really cracked yet, I’m like to see it crack, fail vwap and then retest, that would be dream scenario, that’s why I got worried when it reclaimed vwap so fast out of the gate, could just see the buying orders come in just a buying stampede. Already closing in on half yday volume and not even 40mins after open. Okay this 892 is a level, but it’s still frontside and still above vwap too, it is building lhs on the 1min but hovering above vwap. I shorted a bit more tight stop on those, now it is testing vwap.
  • TSLA alright breaking below vwap decisively so far, starting to test this 875 area, I’m short 3500shares total. Now it’s going straight down, putting another stop area here if it really is weak shouldn’t go back over 900. Okay so it’s not even going to bounce? This is what momo stocks do sometimes; they go straight up, and then when they go down, they go down without even being able to bounce. So my first target is the 10day, second target the 20day, and third target would be the 50day, but obviously all of these MAs will move higher each day, but I am going to keep some shares, willing to hold this thing for weeks even months.
  • TSLA I guess I would call this backside. It had a decisive breakdown from a range, it built a series of lower highs, and it’s below vwap. I would say this is backside for now, maybe in a few hours we get a nice range to add more. TSLA built lhs here all the way so far that’s great, I would love for this thing to go sideways here another 2/3hours then we get a late day breakdown where it goes down another 50/100 or more.
  • Just follow the price action, you could come up with a thousand reasons why the stock will go up from here or go down from here, the fact is you don’t need any of those reasons. All you need is to look at the price action.
  • TSLA reclaimed vwap, lets see if it can fail here, I will not add any unless it gets back down below vwap. My pnl swings are enormous right now, just have to try to detach and focus on the setup. It’s kinda hard sometimes. Okay now it’s below vwap again but I’m probably not gonna add to this thing I want it to build more of a range, preferably below vwap. There is a range here 876, but it is still building hls that’s not great. There may be a minor add spot if it loses this 878, bc then it’s gonna fall below vwap again. I’m thinking about sizing down here a bit, I don’t like the fact it’s holding above vwap, I feel like it’s gonna squeeze a sh*t load, I sized down 1kshares, feels like they’re not done with this TSLA yet. And maybe today is not the day, maybe tomos is gonna be the day.
  • TSLA this recent high it made is the exact same level as pm highs, so there’s your rejection off the pm hod, these two levels are what are important now imo, gonna lower my stop. Still holding above vwap, I’m gonna size down even more if it takes out this double top. If you look at the 1min TSLA has been building hls here for the past hour or so, question is if it’s gonna squeeze higher or not. This is the ideal scenario for TSLA bc if it can keep going sideways here for another hour or two and then break down that’s gonna create an easy range to trade against. Yeah had to size down a bit, can clearly see now been building hls since the open pretty much. Looks like it wants to go higher, definitely lowering stop overall to 917, now that the range has slowed down a bit, not having these crazy candles now.
  • TSLA still hanging in there, if it takes out 920 I think it goes to 1000, been building hls all day and have a range here. An area I am watching is this 901, it’s kinda slowing down now after an hour of this insane volatility, kinda slowing down here and the ranges getting tighter. Could argue it has built some lhs here but obviously those could break at any time to the upside, and it’s still well above vwap. These kinda things they don’t correct by going sideways, that much I can say, these things go down and they can go down hard, once they start breaking. I have some orders in to short it when it starts breaking this 902/903 range. So tight here been in a 20 point range for the past 1.5hours, there’s a big big move either way it breaks. Could just go back into range now and then break out later. TSLA looks exactly like it did midday yday before it squeezed 7% in like an hour, big pop out of the gate, pulls back then grinding back with hls and then took out the range, if it went up 7% from here would go to 990 or so.
  • TSLA one potential entry signal would be if it started breaking below this rising 20EMA on the 5 min chart. This thing has been support the whole day. Lets say, if it fails to take out the hods and go on a big squeeze, and just starts breaking lower, that could be a potential early entry level for a starter. Another is this 903 level and another would be the vwap. There could be a preliminary entry here soon potentially, lets see if the buyers give up here late day. TSLA going higher this is the dream scenario that could have happened, I’ve never been happier to be down 80k on the day, this will be such a big trade.
  • TSLA so maybe we will get this new hod reject, I’m thinking if it breaks 925 I’ll do a starter, it’s getting late day so we’ll see how much staying power the bulls have, for me to hold this thing overnight even if it slams lower will need to close weak, well below the highs. Just keeps going higher, hls all the way every time frame, just incredible. This 5min 20ema has been acting as perfect support the past two days, if it starts violating that will be a big sign. I have to sit there ah too incase they announce an offering or something, would be crazy if Elon didn’t cash in on this move.
  • TSLA getting a little bit of a pullback into the close, and it bounced off the rising 5min 20ema, I shorted 1kshares 947 incase it flushes into vwap, and if it closes weak will hold it overnight, but only if it closes weak, straight down so far, now on this trendline it’s been holding the whole day. Hm what a fade, oh damn maybe I should have shorted more, omg no no are you kidding me, I should have done 2kshares wow, omg what just close the market already, that was 11% just like that on a megacap stock.
  • I’m gonna try to find some historical stocks that have done similar things, I have this enormous database filled with stocks I have thousands. VLTC this looks a little bit similar to TSLA, kept grinding grinding grinding, then it had a speed up and finally went down 60/70% in a week. GENE also bit similar had a big move, then it went straight down, this is what I think TSLA is gonna do go straight down to its rising 10/20day once it cracks lower. SCHW something that reminds me of TSLA, a lcap stock that grinded higher then started speeding up and when it finally had the first red day down 40% in 4sessions. AMTD another one in 1999, grinded higher started speeding up then boom down 55%. ACTA ipo in 1999 same thing. I’m gonna show you guys the book I finished htfs.
  • VOW I was looking for this Volkswagen squeeze from 2008, went from 200 to almost 1000 in 7/8sessions, then it went right back down to 200 in a few days, and the mcap was like 400B so much larger than TSLA.
  • FMNA last time I saw a similar liquid opp to TSLA was 2013, this is the defining trade, mid2013 I had already blown up twice and was about to again, and this time I traded with borrowed money, but this day here changed the trajectory. FNMA went down like 63% intraday then bounced 93% intraday, and I shorted it perfectly made like 50% on my account, and I didn’t play the bounce.
  • A few of my friends actually started trading, they traded for like a year, but they didn’t have much success. They could have, if they stuck to it, but they got bored. Everyone thinks it’s so easy but like, it takes years and years and years and years. Thats really the only difference between successful traders and the unsuccessful traders: The successful ones don’t give up. They stick with it. Even if they blow up, they come back. They go back to work, they come back to trading. That’s what I did, several times. I could have just given up, you know, finished my studies, found work and you know, worked at a regular job. And now I make as much money in a year as I would have made in a lifetime at a regular job, so, dropping out of school was the best decision I ever made.
  • This is what 99% of trading is, waiting and stalking.

#shorting #masterclass

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