342 [S&P500 index looks super vulnerable. May 11, 2021]

  • TSLA trade a homerun so far, rn it’s bouncing off the 200day premarket but if the markets remain weak it’s gonna go lower.
  • FAS was a nice short late day yesterday, big reversal candle, this is extended, reminds me of [29/1/2018] when it was also had this year long trend, was trending higher higher then had this reversal candle.
  • All of the excesses we had last year and early this year are getting washed out, CCIV, QS, reality setting in, valuations do matter, eventually.
  • Lot of the tech related names bouncing, there were some day trading opps in some of these names like PLTR, but even if they rally gonna rally into these declining MAs, they all look like sh*t, that’s the problem there’s nothing going on in those sectors.
  • ETHE is showing rw to the coin, I was thinking about it but it was only day1, if there had been one more up day I would prob have shorted some yday, I’m very cautious shorting day one, been run over a few too many times. ETCG is now down 57% from the highs, ETHE is down 14%, while ETH is only down 5% from the highs.
  • I’ve never been much of a level 2 guy, it moves too fast for me, only thing level 2 has been helpful for me is on otc names but nowadays otc names are dead, pretty much since 2013, but FNMA in 2013 oh man, you saw the level 2 like all the orders were stacked, you could see which way the stock was gonna go, it was like cheating.
  • SMH, if it can reclaim the rising 100day and get back to this 240 area go sideways a bit, it would be a great setup next week, it’s kinda hard to get bearish when a lot of sectors are holding up really well.
  • The problem is if you buy good setups and you get stopped out, and you get a good setup again on that stock a few days later and you don’t buy it, FCX is gonna happen. I bought FCX here [14/4/2021] got stopped out and I didn’t rebuy it and now it’s 25% higher. Same with X I had it here [23/4/2021] got stopped out and I didn’t rebuy it and now it’s way higher. SQM is still building hls, if it sets up again I will rebuy it.
  • IWM it’s still building hls, it’s still intact, actually the base just got stronger, if it holds here and goes back into the range, goes sideways then starts breaking out next week or whatever, that’s gonna be a much stronger setup. But the question is, are we gonna hold these bounces or fade back.
  • My routine: I usually check in with the market usually from my phone like early premarket, maybe 2/2.5hours before market open, just see that any of my positions are not having any crazy gaps or anything. Then I check in again maybe an hour before market open. Then I go to the computer maybe 20mins before market open. And if it is earnings season or there is a lot of things going on then I’ll get to the computer much earlier, but rn when everything has been very slow, I get to the computer kinda late bc there’s just not many things going on, you don’t have to do a lot of preparation.
  • I wasn’t really aware of the concept orhs until I read a book, Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout by Crabel, Toby, he was a futures trader who made like a billion trading orhs. So I did what I’m best at, I just stole the idea. It’s kinda nice when other people figure things out and then you can just take what they figured out and apply it on your own trading. You don’t have to use much brain power. I don’t like using brain power, using brain power is for geniuses and people who think they’re geniuses, most people are better off just copying what works. I literally copied every single trading concept, every setup, everything, none of these things I discovered myself.
  • If you study when big pullbacks in the SPYs happen, they usually happen when you get these long trends, when the SPYs surf the 20/50/100day for many months and sometimes over a year, then they lose their uptrends, lose the 10/20day, you can get some pretty bad sell offs in a short amount of time. Like early2018, or Sep/Oct2018, or May2018, or something like Feb/Mar2020 obv there was another catalyst but if you’d just followed the technicals, it broke the uptrend and started going lower. So that’s what it looks like to me, so it if starts taking out lods later, not a good thing.
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