292 [Newbie traders getting schooled again. Trade with rules. Join the stream. Feb 23, 2021]

  • RIOT I got short yesterday, we got the gap down and the bounce into the declining 20ema and then mid/late day started building lhs, and when it looked like it was starting to lose the vwap that’s when I shorted, but it still closed kinda strong so I covered 1/3rd before the close, just incase it would gap up, but if it’d closed weaker maybe lower than this midday dip, then I would have held full size. That’s an annoying one, it’s always been so strong relative to MARA, MARA closed near lods.
  • AMC broke out mid/late day, now it’s gapping up a little bit, bought some, let’s see if it can get back to $8 or something. AMC is reversing, I guess I should have sold more into strength, it’s kinda hard to get used to when things just keep going straight up, you sell tiny pieces into strength in these types of markets, you get a pop you gotta sell significantly into it, if you want to play breakout types of things, otherwise you’re gonna get killed.
  • TQQQ big gap down, finally lost the rising 20day and now no bids, every time it touched or undercut the 20day it went higher and this time buying the dip didn’t work, let’s see if it can reclaim the 50day or if it’s going to the 100day. We don’t know yet if this is the start of something bigger, or will the major indices find support here and bounce, but even if they bounce here, the QQQs are gonna bounce into the declining 20/10day which is not good. I’d prefer we get a nice little shakeout, the faster it goes down, the sharper the down move is the better, get it over with , maybe even an undercut of the 200day, and then get a big big tradable bounce that would be the ultimate thing, but it’s prob not gonna happen bc the ultimate scenarios almost never happen.
  • TSLA same thing, it can go to the 100day or is it gonna bounce here? Look at what happened, lost the 50day and straight down. TSLA yesterday, I would have either when it started losing vwap, bc it started building lhs and lost vwap, look at this little mini bearflag intraday, you could either enter here when it loses vwap takes out the intraday range, or when it takes out orls, those would have been the entries. So either here or here if you’d gotten stopped out orhs (which I didn’t bc I forgot to put a stop).
  • A lot of traders on tilt rn, but if you trade with rules, this can be avoided. A lot of these names they can go down as fast as they went up, they can go straight back to where they came from, it’s so important to have rules in trading. Now if you bought these things for an investment that’s another thing, then you shouldn’t even care if the stock is down on the day. But a lot of these stocks, they’ve been surfing the 10/20day and now they’re breaking their uptrends, but if you go back and study through history stocks that made big moves and surfed the 20day, when the trend breaks bad things can happen.
  • BILI sold it yesterday, look at what it did, closed below the 20day and yeah now it needs to build a new base. This one I wish I’d gone short, it was a great short setup, but yeah sometimes it’s hard to switch from long to short.
  • BNGO yesterday, sure when it broke here but it wasn’t a tight setup, you want tightness, this was wide and loose, it was a tough one. But yeah it’s up 3000% in two months, it is about to happen, could go back to $3 for all I know.
  • CCIV incredible, too bad it gapped down this much, what happened on CCIV it’s called buy the rumour and sell the news. And also pipe offering is way lower, apparently, 15 for the pipe, disaster.
  • GBTC gonna size down, since it lost the 10day, my final stop is gonna be if it closes below the 20day, or if it loses this $43 area. ETHE also sizing down that one, if it closes below the 50day I’m out. GBTC I have a longer time frame, I think it could go much higher, while RIOT I think could go back to 40/30 by next week, different time frames.
  • So many great setups I haven’t been able to trade bc they were too thin, two that stand out are TRXC and SENS, two htfs that both doubled in a week, and there’s many more. And also on the short side, parabolic shorts that I’ve had to pass on bc they’re too thin, like guys if you learn to trade, you learn setups and you realise what’s important in the markets, there’s so much opportunity it’s unbelievable. If you learn a timeless setup, a setup that keeps coming back, that has existed for over a hundred years, you’re set for life, you will have learned a skill for life. Yeah ZOM also, I passed on, another one almost tripled from the htf breakout, Jan/Feb2021 were the months of htf breakouts, never seen so many htfs in liquid small and microcap names.
  • I don’t really look at market indicators and sentiment indicators, the problem is sometimes they work really well but sometimes they’re really off, especially sentiment indicators, they’re been constantly flashing warning signs over the past 12months, and the past 12months have been the best 12month period since 1999/2000, and the same thing happened then, all the sentiment indicators were constantly flashing warning signs, and that was the best market ever to trade. Throw out those indicators, indicators they’re all lagging, focus on the leading indicator, focus on what the stocks are doing; How are the stocks acting? What’s working atm? Are there any setups? Are the setups following through? That’s what’s important, everything else is just noise, randomness, just gonna confuse you, the few things to look at the better.
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