291 [Easy money over for now in the markets. Feb 22, 2021]

  • GME getting back to the declining 10day, lets see if it can finally hold or is it gonna get rejected again. Let’s see if this GME has any juice, also breaking the range like AMC, lets see if these things can finally go, I still think GME is gonna have an insane bounce day where it’s gonna be up 100% or something in a few days, maybe it goes back to the declining 20day. Volume looks above avg so far, already traded 4M shares, but not as high as I would like it to be. Rn it looks like it’s rejecting off the declining 10day again, if it takes out hods I’ll buy more, but rn it’s not really acting the way I want it to act.
  • AMC having a nice rangebreak, I hesitated and now it’s going. Some of these could make big bounces once they finally go.
  • RIOT and MARA would love to see a big bounce back to the 10/20ema on the 60min, they’d both have to bounce about 10% to get there, so if they get there I may start looking for some weakness to short.
  • PLUG I’ve been short for a couple weeks, I was long then short, if you want to be rich you gotta change your mind , you gotta go with the stock, if the stock tells you that it wants to go down you gotta short it, simple as that, all about listening.
  • TSLA oh sh*t gonna have to short, gonna use hods as my stop, if this can’t bounce it’s gonna go straight down to the 100day, so pretty much my risk is $6 to make potentially idk $130, I would say that’s a pretty good r/r. This htf failed which is not very good. TSLA let’s see if it can reclaim the 50day or if it’s gonna get rejected, I covered up the add. TSLA testing vwap again, man I just realised I forgot to put a stop on it, that could have been an expensive mistake, so I’m still in on those adds.
  • If you have a big edge, you can make a lot of stupid mistakes and still be wildly profitable, there has to be a margin of error in your trading systems, if you don’t have a margin of error, your edge is sh*t. Fat fingers, stupid mistakes, breaking rules, there has to be some room for these things.
  • BILI looks weak, if I wasn’t long I could short it, look at how clean this rangebreak is, losing the 20day.
  • GBTC bouncing nicely off the 10day, nice early signs of strength, even though it’s down 10% on the day it’s still showing strength, at the same time a stock being up 10% on the day can show weakness.
  • MELI I bought it on Friday, it closed weak, I should have sold it Friday but I didn’t, and now I’m paying for it.
  • MRNA is a little bit intriguing, shorted some.
  • There’s so many nuances, you have to learn the nuances of the setups, everyone can learn a setup, but the more effort you put in, the more nuances you’re gonna learn and you’re gonna get an edge.
  • If you want to make a lot of money you’ve gotta be in the fastest moving stocks.
  • Do they always have to be tight to buy them? Not always, it depends on the range, the quality of the range, not all the setups I buy are tight, if it’s something that’s very special, something showing a lot of rs, something like MSTR for example, when I bought it it wasn’t really that great of a setup but it bounced off the 20day and showed a lot of rs against BTC that’s when I bought it, was maybe a 3* setup at best, but just bc of rs made it like a 5* setup.
  • I just want to trade and play hearts of iron 4, some people have such a hard time understanding my lifestyle. But that’s the point of being rich, you can do whatever the f*ck you want, that’s the literally the point, it’s called f u money for a reason.
  • Have I reached a point I almost considered quitting trading? Yeah in the first 2-3years, almost every day. Learning how to trade is the hardest thing I’ve ever done. The thing about trading is the rules change, the game changes, what worked a couple of weeks/months ago may not work now, and what didn’t work may work. It’s not like more static games like poker or chess where it’s the same thing over and over, like the rules change, that’s what makes trading so hard. You have to be very very open to change, and very adaptable.
  • The setups are timeless absolutely, but you’ve gotta identify when the setups are working and not working, that’s the hardest part, learning the setups is the easy part, you just have to put in some effort and you can very easily identify a 5star setup from a 3star setup, a beginner doesn’t see the difference but you put in a bit of effort and you will see the difference. But identifying periods and actually not trading during unfavourable periods that’s the hardest thing, that’s my biggest weakness overtrading, it’s very natural to start looking for trades when there’s not many good setups, especially coming off a period when there’s been good setups non stop, it’s a little bit hard to me to adapt sometimes, I keep pushing even when I shouldn’t, my returns would be much bigger if I didn’t do that.
  • Relationships are an edge in anything you do, except maybe for trading, I don’t have any relationships with like anyone, you can really do it completely alone, you don’t have to involve anyone in it, you’re not dependent on anyone, it’s you versus the market.
  • Once you have a setup, and you know everything about that setup, once you have mastered a setup and been consistently profitable through different up markets, sideways markets and down markets, then you can do whatever you want, you’re not dependent on anyone, you don’t need a chat room, cnbc or anyone’s opinions, you can stand on your own two legs.
  • QQQs are falling nice, that’s what always happens after big runs, every time you come out of a correction or long sideways period, you have a lot of stocks going up at the same time, and every time the market resets a little bit, goes sideways or pulls back a little bit, fewer and fewer stocks are participating, and more and more stocks get extended and there are no setups, that’s what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. That’s what happened last summer too, market kept going higher, and every time it had a leg higher fewer stocks participated, and here by early late Aug/early Sep2020, there were no long setups and a lot of the leading stocks got very extended, and we got a sharp pullback, doesn’t look too bad on the COMPQ but a lot of the leading stocks were down 30/50% in a matter of a few weeks. Same thing happened early last year, there was a big run from Oct2019 to about mid/late Feb2020, then we had this crash and there was the same thing, there were no setups, the leading stocks had been going up for 4/5months straight and got really extended and then the rug pull. Same thing over and over again, really nothing new under the sun, and once you learn these things, once you can identify these things, you’re gonna make a lot of money, or at least not give back money you’ve made. Same thing in 2019, lot of breadth early/mid Jan2019, tons and tons of stocks going up and the same time and lots of setups, and every leg higher there were fewer stocks participating, and many stocks got really extended and there were no or very few setups. It’s the same thing over and over and over again.


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