• BTC, perfect breakout, look at the perfect flag it broke out of, we had a perfect breakout here [16/12/2020] and another perfect breakout here [25/12/2020], it’s the exact same setups as stocks, just supply and demand, no need to rocket science any of this. I’m a trader, I don’t have the conviction to HODL it, I trade these things. I don’t have the conviction on anything, literally anything, I have conviction on trades but not on investments.
• DPW gapping, military contract 1.1M. Yeah also a crypto pump, I know that from a few years ago when they pumped with crypto, this thing went from like $5 to $45 in a couple of weeks [Nov/Dec2017], maybe that’s also why it’s up, we’ll see if big volume coming in, I’ll buy anything. Gonna watch these crypto names if big vol is coming in, like orhs if we can get a tight setup on some of these, bc if they start chasing these crypto names all of these things could double from here, DPW, NXTD, these small ones especially DPW just coming out of a long base could have some potential.
• NXTD bought some orhs. DPW bought some orhs, has no volume, not the volume I’d like to see.
• I guess RIOT and MARA were both orhs buys, I should have maybe added.
• I do regret not buying MSTR when it bounced off the 20day [21/12/2020] bc now crypto plays are doing really well. MSTR bought some orhs.
• OSTK I find interesting, they have this crypto related arm but this stock is not moving, made a big move in the last BTC mania, went from like $15 to $90 in 5/6months.
• TNA was short starter TNA over the weekend in case we get some profit taking but instead we gap up so I took a tiny loss on this thing, covered it premarket. I’m thinking IWM is getting a little bit extended, the r/r on the long side is just not good here, doesn’t mean it can’t go higher but, if I see a setup I will reshort TNA, may not necc be today. TNA giving short signal here, but should I take it or leave it is the question. Shorted some [75kshares], If you have a gap up in an extended market that sells off, that’s usually not a good thing. If it reclaims vwap gonna prob cover it, but rn this thing could very easily pullback to the 20day.
• All about getting these tight tight setups, something like TNA my risk is 70/80c and if it works I’m gonna make $10 on it, maybe even $15, it’s all about getting these high multiple r/r setups, something you can risk 1 to make 10/20/30/50, that’s the name of the game, getting these high multiple r/r setups, then you can keep taking these small losses and taking them forever, and once you nail something you’ll make it all back and much more. You could get stopped out on something 5x in a row for 1R, then you nail that thing and make 20/30R, you make a lot of money, that’s what trading is all about, tight stops and big targets. Winrate is totally irrelevant, I had a 25% winrate last year, this year prob not much higher, you can be wrong on most of your trades and make a lot of money, if you need a high winrate to make money your edge sucks.
• QS, I held small 1/3 size short over the weekend, looks like it’s gapping up over this range, I think this thing could have a long setup soon. I hope it craps out of the gap, finds support this 115s area then builds hls on the 60min and maybe we get a setup tomos or something. This is THE momo squeezer in the market rn. Stopped out short, I hope it pulls back to 115/116 and builds more hls before it goes, I think this thing could go big time eventually. These kinda of moves like QS, they always happen when the indices have gone up for a while, they almost never happen near market lows, they happen nnear short term market tops usually, like clockwork. Let’s see if QS can hold the rising 20ema, too bad I got shaken out of it. Okay QS building hls on the 60min now, this is gonna be such a juicy setup, if it get’s really tight on the 60min then breaks out say tomos, I’m gonna go full retard on this thing, I’ll buy like 100kshares or something. I strongly feel this thing has one more leg, it’s had 3 legs higher it could easily have another leg, this is the hype leader in this market, the pump leader.
• TTD testing the 20day now, and there are no bids, impossible to get in, I got half size hopefully it can bounce a little. Very key area for TTD, if it can’t hold the 20day this thing has no support until the 50day. This thing has no bids, holy sh*t these candles, yeah there’s some money leaving some sectors rn. There’s no upticks on this thing. Already almost at the 50day, nice. It’s actually right on the 10weekly, but in case we get a bigger correction this thing could easily undercut the 50day, since I don’t have full size I’m just gonna lower my stop to b/e.
• These breakdowns, something like TTD, this is not a parabolic setup, this is a largecap stock made a big big move this year, over 500% was almost 600% from the Mar2020 lows, it’s a very big move for a lcap stock, and lately past 3/4months it’s been pretty much straight up, look at how linear it is, look how nice it’s been surfing the 10/20day. When you have something that’s been going pretty much straight up for months and months and these things break, it got really tight and then broke these support areas, it’s a little bit like a reverse breakout kinda, these can be good r/r setups. It’s like when I shorted OSTK here [24/8/2020] it wasn’t a parabolic but it started breaking down on the 60min, this thing had also been straight up for months and months and then I just waited for it to start building lhs and then it started breaking down on the 60min, and I shorted it somewhere here 117s, and it went straight down, undercut the 50day. It’s an alternative short setup when you get these stocks that are really extended, like no stock goes up forever, remember that, no stock goes up forever without pullbacks. And the bigger the run it’s had, the bigger the pullback will be. Always keep that in mind and then just look for these low risk high reward, high probability setups.
• KSS yeah it is looking good, JWN same sector, M also looks similar but kinda broke out two days ago, they’re department stores look really good, htfing, interesting.
• SABR is a really really really good setup, too thin for me. Had a big run, went up 90% in a like a month, pulled back orderly pullback and started surfing the 20day, building hls, had two tight days, and today it’s breaking out of this range. That’s what a good setup looks like.
• Seeing a lot of these commodities and beaten down names having setups, cruiselines, airlines, commodity related names, a lot of o&g names setting up, while there’s literally no setups in the growth space, also starting to see some breakdowns like TTD, getting a little bit of a rotation. NCLH bought some orhs, same as the SABR setup, we have an established trend, orderly pullback and now a breakout of a tight range. Looks like all these other beaten down ‘value sectors’, all pretty much the same. All of these cyclical value names are having a strong day, while growth stocks are pulling back, growth stocks are shrinking, value stocks are growing.
• CRWD hitting some alerts here, shorted some. Straight down.
• Guys if you don’t think the market can go down while the Fed is buying you may be in for a big surprise, love your stops, don’t love the Fed. Some of these stocks can easily go down 50% even if they Fed keeps buying, that’s not what you base your trading on, you need to have solid rules, the market can very easily go down 10/20% even with the Fed buying, don’t think it can’t, it’s done it before and it’s gonna do it again. Obey your stops, have exit strategies. What do you mean this is a new type of market? No it’s not, this is similar to 1999 in many aspects, absolutely nothing new. Stocks are moving the same way they did 20years ago and like they did 220years ago, nothing new here. The Fed was printing back in late ’90s and the Fed is printing now, nothing new here, don’t let anyone tell you something is new in the markets, there is nothing new in the markets, it’s the same thing over and over again, all you need is to study past markets, nothing new. Your job is to identify good setups long and short and trade them. Don’t think just bc the Fed is printing and interest rates are low it’s gonna save you, the market will get you, the market will get you. The market exists to f*ck over most people most of the time, that’s what the market is here for. Fed can’t save you, low interest rates can’t save you, all you have is your strategies, your rules, that’s what you should rely on. Exactly only the magic lines will save us. These things don’t matter, your job is to identify where the money is going and where money is leaving that’s your job, everything else is secondary.
• So I rotated my portfolio from trades that didn’t have a good r/r left, to trades that have a better r/r, that’s what you do, you have to look at your portfolio and think what am I holding that’s still a good r/r, and are there any better r/r opportunities out there?
• ACY, up 1300%, it’s gonna have a 50% intraday pullback, at least 30/40% but the question is, is it gonna happen at 40 or 140, that we don’t know. There are no shares available. Yeah it’s gonna be impossible to short, every time it gets unhalted you’ll only have a few seconds before it gets halted again, you gotta be so fast. SPI was another one Sep2020, this was insane went from a $1 to $47 in one day, then it pulled back 75% in like an hour. You should never ever ever short frontside, it’s just not worth it, you can make money 9/10 times then something like ACY happens and you lose all those profits and more, it’s just not worth it, especially on these low floats. In the stock market I’m pretty flexible about most things but there are a few things I will never change my mind about and that is shorting momo stocks in front side, it’s not a viable strategy, nothing is gonna convince me it’s a good idea ever.
• FUBO wait for this thing to get to the 20day, it could have a very big bounce. Just like LAZR bounced off the 20day, look how perfectly it bounced off the 20day put in a like 75% bounce, that’s a big bounce, first it went down 75% then it bounced 75%. FUBO could do the same but it needs to get to the 20day, it’s not gonna bounce from here, there are no levels here, ideal scenario it closes weak today, it goes down to the 20day today like 35/34, and gaps down tomos, that would be a high probability long setup.

Misc:

• I wouldn’t call myself an options god but I’m a half god, like hercules.

#shorting