254 [Merry Christmas! Dec 24, 2020]

  • TAN shorted some yesterday, think this thing could pullback to the 20day maybe even the 50day. TAN rn it’s on the 20ema on the 60min, but my play is it should go down to at least the 20day, prob the 50day, the 50day is where it usually has found support like here [8/9/2020] and here [4/11/2020].
  • TLRY also got into Friday, small position. This thing can make big moves once it goes, it’s just been grinding higher, every time it pulls back to the 20day, this time here pulled back to the 50day, but here again it merged with this APHA, sold off on the news had huge volume, pulled back to the rising 20day and yesterday it had a high volume day off that 20day. If you look at the weekly there’s a lot of potential here, it’s just a big big flag on the weekly, I think once it goes it could easily double or something. I’m risking 50c to potentially make $5/10, I think it’s a good r/r trade.
  • QS shorted midday when it started failing vwap, built lhs and then started fading, shorted like half size. May add a little bit, held 30kshares short, if this thing loses the 20ema on the 60min, has an easy 20% air pocket so I would def want to add into that. Looks like QS is gonna stop me out of short, built another hl on the 60min. QS stopped me out and now it’s fading back to lods. QS I reshorted, too bad it stopped me out from yesterday, I had some really good entries from yesterday, now I have a worse avg about a dollar lower. I wonder if it’s gonna go sideways a few days and then break higher, I would like to rebuy it on a good setup and ride it to 200, then get the monster short setup on it. QS needs to close below 117 for me to hold it overnight I think, if it closes above 117 I don’t wanna hold it overnight.
  • I want perfect setups, I don’t want mediocre setups. But I think this TTD if it loses the 20day, next stop is gonna be the 50day, this could be a low risk high reward trade, if we get some selling.
  • NVDA this one I’m stalking, looks like it wants to breakdown, but also could have one up day and it’s gonna break out, just getting tight, good r/r trade no matter how you play it, I wouldn’t trade it on the long side since it’s kinda slow but on the short side it’s nice, I like shorting megacaps since they’re kinda safer to trade.
  • FUBO had a perfect breakdown late day off this tight range, I didn’t trade it, I traded it at the open took a loss on it. Damn this FUBO, short entry was yesterday late day high in this 56/55.50 area, I didn’t do it unfortunately. Had this perfect perfect short entry just draw a straight line here, combined with lhs.
  • CRWD I shorted it orls yesterday, stopped out b/e on it bc it grinded back to green late day, didn’t close weak as I’d like it to, stalking today potential short. Not really a parabolic, but for a large cap stock, I mean this thing is up 55/60% in less than a month, that’s pretty unusual for a 50B company, so it’s kinda a parabolic ish kind of a setup. Obv you can’t compare this thing to QS or LAZR or any of these smallcap ones that double/triple in a few days, but something like LAZR when I shorted that was something you can risk 5/8% to make 40/50%. CRWD and TTD those are trades where you can risk say 1/2% to potentially make 15/20%, and you can use much more size too.
  • That’s the mentality we’re in rn, all you need is a sexy story for stocks to price in 10/20years of perfect execution, it’s pretty amazing. And you see these analysts also playing this game, doing these stupid dcfs like 10/15years out, to justify hideous price targets, it’s all a fantasy game we’re playing rn. It’s exactly what happened late ’90s, our job is to play along, you can choose to fight it or you can choose to play along, I choose to play along, no matter how ridiculous it is I’m not gonna fight it, I’m gonna play along.
  • BABA, if you’re an investor I think BABA would be a great buy on the 150weekly, it’s been finding long term support on the 150weekly and the 200weekly, it’s another 10/15/20% lower from here and total maybe 40% from aths. It’s still a great company, in a dominant position.
  • PINS failed the breakout yesterday, yeah that’s what happens, if PINS had broken out somewhere in Nov2020 or early Dec2020 that would have worked well, then it would have gone to 100 by now. But that’s the thing when you have these breakouts after a prolonged market run it means the stock is a big laggard, and also there were not many other setups, like I said before you wanna be buying breakouts when there’s a lot of setups. PINS was really the only lcap setup out there, that’s not really what you want to see. So you gotta be careful when you buy these breakouts, just bc it’s a breakout doesn’t make it a good buy, you have to be aware; where are we in the market? Where are we coming from? Have to be super aware of what’s going on, just can’t randomly blindly buy setups. Like identifying setups is the easiest thing, you can get perfect entries on perfect setups, but the hard thing is identifying what kind of a market are we in, that’s the hard part and that’s where people really struggle.
  • QQQ looks great, but there are no setups. It’s exactly what we saw back in early Oct2020, QQQ looked great but there were no setups, then in early Nov2020 that’s where we started getting setups and that’s where the market also had follow through to the upside, bc a lot of stocks started going up from those breakouts which drove the indices higher, so yes the index looks good, COMPQ grinding higher building hls, but I just don’t see a lot of setups.
  • When everything is straight up for a month, it usually doesn’t last without at least a shakeout, I still think we’re gonna go higher next year, but it’s not gonna be straight up, there’s gonna be shakeouts, and shakeouts you don’t wanna come in margin long, you want to have cash available so you can buy new solid setups, that’s how you outperform the market by a wide wide margin.
  • TSLA is one setup I do like, I think this thing goes to 1000, look at how relentlessly building hls, like it’s not a great setup on the daily, I would prefer more sideways, but on the 60min I’m willing to maybe do a small starter. Last time I bought it was here [7/12/2020] when it broke out of this tight flag on the 60min but that one failed bc the market failed. But since then it’s been building relentlessly hls, what is the stock telling you, does it want to go lower or higher? Bought a starter, this is like the only setup I see rn and it’s not even perfect, but this is the best r/r scenario I’m seeing rn on the long side. I’m risking $11 and why can’t this thing go to 800? This flag break went up over 100% [Jun2020], this one went up 60% [Aug2020], this one went up 55% [Nov2020], so why can’t it go up 30/40%? Obv it’s not gonna go up forever but rn this structure I’m seeing is that this thing has no sellers.
  • WKHS I don’t like this one, it’s just too choppy, all over the place, it’s not an orderly structure, you want like orderly structures, it’s too random, I don’t like random looking stuff, I like orderly stuff that’s where I get my edge. If it’s choppy and all over the place I just don’t see an edge there.
  • VERU yeah looks decent, had a big pop on big vol, orderly pullback to the 10day and now it’s kinda surfing and getting really tight on the 60min.
  • BTC is just on the 10day, looks great it’s flagging here, I mean this thing looks so bullish it’s insane, and now institutional money is buying it, I think it goes to 50k, conservative price target. Why GBTC is going down and not BTC itself, bc GBTC has premium built in, the premium was between 60-120% back in 2017 when BTC had a mania last time, so there’s a premium drain when BTC goes sideways, premium get’s built in when it goes higher, and get drained when it goes lower or sideways, that’s why GBTC is weaker than BTC. Premium is 26% only? Not too bad.
  • NETE yeah looks good, hls, this thing more than doubled pulled back to the 20day, had another pop pulled back to the 20day, is very orderly, I like it. This is the type of stock you should trade if you have a small account, if this thing breaks out, could very easily make a 50% move. Those are the stocks you wanna trade if you have a small account.
  • BLNK I hope this thing keeps going another 2/3 days in a straight line, it’s gonna be another LAZR setup, I get a feel it’s gonna squeeze and maybe start speeding up, that would be great. Call buying in BLNK that’s great, let them squeeze this thing to 70/80/90s, it needs to squeeze out. In an ideal world I would have bought the breakout here [7/12/2020] I passed on it, then we got another shot here [16/12/2020] I passed, if it had gone sideways one more day and put in another tighter day I would have prob bought this breakout, but since the prev day was so wide I just didn’t like it.
  • TRSSF, yeah it’s a good setup, this one had two recently really good setups in the fall, here and here and now it’s kinda setting up again. But again every time it flags and sets up again, the success rate is gonna be lower, it’s not gonna keep going up forever.
  • TXG yeah looks good, surfing the 50day nicely, looks amazing on the weekly, this thing breaks out it’s gonna go to the high 100s, very good.


  • You’re addicted to buying breakouts? You better get rid of that addiction, you should try heroin or something. Buying breakouts no matter what is not a good addiction, I think heroin is healthier, heroin is cheaper definitely. If you’re gonna choose between manically buying breakouts and heroin, choose heroin.
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