• DKNG started working, I was literally pennies away from getting stopped out yesterday, and then it turned around, sometimes breakouts do that, they fall back into range, build a hl and then they launch.
• SHOP I do wish I bought, this 1090/1100s that was the entry for it, then it went straight up. Look at the weekly, this thing could easily go to 1400/1500 next month.
• Guys you have to understand just bc a stock is going straight up doesn’t mean it’s shorts buying, it’s usually longs buying, shorts are a very small part of the market, shorts are like 1% of the stock market, and yes some individual stocks can be higher they can be double digit, but people are calling this and that a short squeeze, they’re not it’s just momo, it’s called momo. KODK was a short squeeze, then was this GLSI last week that was also insane.
• BLNK, the breakout maybe high 30s or something, but the better breakout was on this candle here [7/12/2020] that was the better breakout, this now is more a continuation breakout.
• QS bought some orh. One of these hyper quick movers, I still think it goes to 120, I think this is the momo leader in the market right now, one of the hottest stories. Stopped out, it wasn’t really a 5* setup, but I thought it’s a super high momo stock, I thought it could work with this little short consolidation, just like it did here where it went sideways for just a few days then it doubled [8/12/2020] in a few days, but yeah I think this time the 20day needs to catch up I guess.
• PINS, is it a great setup though idk man, looking back this thing is up like [600% from March lows], idk if it’s a good setup, it is surfing the 20day, it is a good setup actually you kinda have to ignore how far it’s come, these things can run much more. It is extended but it doesn’t matter since the setup is good, see how it’s building hls, it’s clearly showing it wants to go higher. It’s a grinder, I don’t think it’s gonna be a straight up kinda setup, it’s gonna be a grinder, I’m gonna pass on it. Something like SHOP is much better, breaking out of multi month bases, those setups are much better than something like this.
• LGVW looks pretty good, textbook flag, if this thing breaks out could go to 20.
• NXTD I was thinking of buying a sh*t ton yesterday when it broke out of this tight range in the high 80c area, it had been building hls all day, then it had this range here, had enormous volume, hot sector and everything. But again these low priced stocks, the commissions are just incredible.
• These are the types of scenarios where a sharp shakeout could happen, everyone gets super bullish and super long and then they pull the plug. Kinda have to be aware of that, we could be going straight up for several weeks, but it’s something to be aware of, I’ve seen it too many times. Everything just going straight up, I mean look at this RDFN, hasn’t had a red day in like a month, like wtf is this? These are the times it feels almost unreal, everything going straight up every day pretty much, but we could keep going everyday for several weeks without any pullbacks, if you look at what happened here back in Aug2020, markets started accelerating and then it had a sharp pullback. Same thing happened here Feb2020 before the corona crash, we kept grinding higher higher higher everytime the market pulled back it found support on the 10/20day, those are the key MAs, then had a sharp pullback and obv bc of corona fears. Then we also had a similar scenario back in early 2018, the markets kept going straight up and then we had a hard sharp reversal. This type of action is what always happens after a straight up market move, these sharp pullbacks, but we’re not there yet, it’s not really extended yet.
• The market will definitely crash, it’s like saying there’s gonna be rainfall soon, I can 100% guarantee and I would be right that yes the market will crash, I just don’t know when, but the market will crash guaranteed I have no idea when it’s gonna happen but it will happen, many more times in our lifetimes, every 5/10years there’s a market crash on average. The market after a crash is usually very good, any time you get a 20/30% pullback in a very short amount of time, usually that’s the best time to buy stocks. Just look at what happened earlier this year in the corona crash, next 5months where incredible, you could throw a dart and you would 2/3x your account. And if you’re a short term trader you should be in cash when the market is downtrending, there’s no reason to own any stocks.
• MRNA gonna cover it, it bounced off the 20day, there is no reason to sit in this thing short, could very easily go back to 160.
• This 10/20day work so well for momo stocks, it’s almost like cheating, it’s as close to cheating as you can get without doing anything illegal, it’s kinda incredible, I can’t believe more people haven’t figured it out. They actually work really well in a bear market too, they work really well in both up and down trends, bull trends they act as support, bear trends they act as resistance.
• NVDA is setting up, just like SHOP, it’s a very slow moving name but this is a juicy setup, just look at the weekly, looks so good, unbelievably good, it’s a htf on the weekly, very slow but you can do it in options.
• NIU yeah it’s getting tighter, I like it, hls, very solid base here, starting tomos I would start watching it.
• ZS is going now yeah, you could have bought it here orhs on the ep day [3/12/2020] and/or you could have bought it here today just as it breaks over this 188 area. But was it that good of a setup idk, I would have preferred it closer to the 20day.
• MGNI yeah if it can go sideways a bit more, tighten up a little bit. EOSE in a few days, yeah looks good, getting really tight.
• FUBO, this thing has incredible rev growth, and some smart people I follow are kinda bullish on it, maybe it can go to 50. Basic breakout setup, big move, orderly pullback, bounced off the 20day, then a breakout, classic setup I go through this setup everyday. You also kinda need the right stock, I prob haven’t talked about it enough but you kinda need these, it has to be in a hot sector, you can also get these good setups in a bunch of random stocks but it’s always good to get them in these hyper growth stocks, something like this super hot product, last Q rev growth was 950%, thats incredible. You kinda need to be in the right stocks also, not just in some random good setup but also the right stocks. FUBO they just launched their product or service or whatever it is, now they’re ramping up sales, look at this thing, they went from nothing to like 44M to 61M in sales, that’s insane.
• CRNC yesterday breakout wasn’t really a good setup, it’s an okay momo stock but the growth isn’t that good, if you have like a growth stock setting up I would recommend trading the growth stock, it’s just too random for me personally, I prefer to be either in a really hot sector or just in the growth names. Like most of these are growth names, GRWG this thing has triple digit eps and rev growth. DKNG almost triple digit rev growth. DQ triple digit eps and rev growth, well actually last Q it ‘only’ had 50% rev growth but still 175% eps growth. FSLY 42% rev growth, and also really hot sector same sector as NET. PTON look at this triple digit eps and rev growth. Z triple digit eps growth, actually had negative rev growth but it still has good momo etc. DOCU triple digit eps and mid double digit rev growth. BLDP not much eps or rev growth but it’s a hot sector. SQ double digit eps and triple digit rev growth. BE not much growth but it’s in a hot sector, fuel cell. SNAP triple digit eps growth and double digit sales growth. FNGU is a triple faang etf. FUTU look at this quadruple digit eps growth, that is insane as f*ck (when market smith says 999 it means 1000+), and 276% rev growth. RIOT coin related name. FCEL hot sector. QS the hottest battery stock out there, and batteries are like the hottest sector out there. FUBO 950% rev growth. MARA coin stock. GBTC BTC etf.
• FUTU look at these numbers, just crazy numbers. This is YoY. Stuff like SQ, so last Q it had 36% eps growth compared to the same Q the year before, and 140% rev growth compared to the same Q of the year before. And also you can see the estimates right, estimates are also really important, bc you can have very high current growth but if estimates are gonna be down for the year after there’s no reason for this stock to go up, so we also want rising estimates. And sometimes also stocks that don’t have much growth rn but they have high estimates, those stocks can also make big moves. AMD, this is one I was really bullish on a couple of weeks ago but I kinda sold it bc it was a slow mover, look at the estimates 92% eps growth this year, 42% next year, look at this triple digit eps growth, mid double digit rev growth. Most things I buy, like even if you get a good setup on a random stock it’s probably not worth it. Especially if you can choose like if you have plenty of growth stocks and then you have these random stocks, focus on the growth stocks. Earnings are fuel, you need fuel, you need a reason for stuff to go up. Stocks don’t go up just bc there’s a certain pattern to it, you find the stocks that have a reason to go up and then you look for patterns on those stocks. Bc patterns are just something that can increase your odds of success and then maximise your r/r, you want to get all the randomness out of trading, you want an edge, if you want a big edge you have to go these things, you don’t have much room for error, you can’t do random things.
• I use Koyfin to see rev estimates, you can’t see rev estimates in marketsmith but koyfin you can. This year, AMD sales are expected to grow 42% eps 93%, next year sales 25% eps 48% and then the year after it’s 18% and 31%, so you can see the rev and eps estimates two years in the future. Obviously it’s not perfect but I do think you can improve your odds pretty big. Analysts are kinda off wrong a lot but the big funds they kinda buy what their analysts are telling them so it’s something that also increases your odds.
• Obviously we are in a market environment where all these growth stocks are being rewarded, that’s not always the case, growth stocks don’t always outperform, they outperform most of the time but I read research that they outperform 60/70% of the time, so they’re not gonna always outperform but when they do, they do big time.
• Many times the ones that get extended, they just don’t really pullback a lot, like I thought NVAX was extended when I sold it near the open on this day [26/6/2020], it was straight up for two weeks, I bought it here on this flag break [15/6/2020] went up like 80% in less than two weeks, the stock was like 25/30% above the 10day and I thought it was extended, I didn’t wanna give back any profits so I sold it. It went sideways for like a week and then it went up another 140%, so they’re tricky.
• I’m gonna be patient with MARA and RIOT, bc BTC is just breaking out of a multi month flag, you can’t look at the GBTC and MARA and RIOT charts alone, you have to look at what BTC is doing, bc they’re following BTC. BTC just broke out to new aths. Made a bit move, flagged for like a month just below aths and then it broke out, I do think this thing is gonna go to 30k or something before any rest or pullback. So I’m not really worried about MARA and RIOT, even though MARA is actually about 50% above the 10day, I’m gonna try to hold them, these things could easily double from here.
• Don’t look for patterns, look mainly for stocks that actually have a reasonable chance to keep going up, and you also obv need a combination of momo and rs and something that’s driving it, it may be earnings, maybe a hot theme, something like that, keep out of random stocks.
• KIRK had a great setup here [17/11/2020], and it’s a double since and hasn’t closes below the 10day since, well except for this day [14/12/2020] but it was still above this day here when it bounced off the 10day [9/12/2020] so it doesn’t really count. Holy f*ck this thing was at 60c in Mar2020, and now it’s $20, even more than TUP. Some of these stocks that were priced for bankruptcy have done so well this year.
• SNAP was a good buy on the breakout here [19/11/2020] already up like 32%. And look at how it’s surfing the 10day, the 10day is so important, look at how it bounced off the 20day, the 10/20day are so important for these growth stocks. Look at MARA the 10/20day, GBTC looked how it surfed the 10day, bounced off the 20day. FUBO look how it surfed the 10day, bounced off the 20day. QS look how it’s surfing the 10day, SNAP look how it’s acting around the 10/20day. RIOT look how it’s acting around the 10/20day. SQ look how it’s surfing the 10/20day all the way up, and here it found support on the 50day, so 10/20/50day really important on these momo stocks. Z too, look how it surfed the 10/20/50day. You can trade these things so many ways, this is why you need to study thousands of leading stocks from different market environments, they all act the same way pretty much, and once you learn how these things move you can trade them in so many ways, but you have to put in the work. You can’t just do some random bs, put some bs indicators out there and think you’re gonna make money that’s not how it works, if you don’t know how stocks move, and how they’re supposed to move in certain scenarios, no indicator is gonna help you, you need to learn how stocks move and then use can use the indicators as a guide.
• FSLY has pretty much never had a profitable Q but look how consistently they’re growing the rev, this is a classic software company, past 5 years these types of stocks making huge moves, the stocks that have no earnings but really good and consistent rev growth, these types of stocks have been working really well over the past like 5years. Rn we’re in a market environment where the market doesn’t give a sh*t about earnings, and in some cases the more money a company loses the better, that’s just how it is, you gotta stick to what works. That’s also something, you have to be aware, bc that could change at any time, two years from now we could be in a diff market environment where the market only wants to see earnings, and doesn’t care about high rev growth and no earnings. These things change, you have to be aware of what’s working and what’s not, your job is to constantly assess these things, you can’t be set in your ways, you have to constantly adapt.
• PLTR it’s setting up, I think it’s gonna make a big move either way once it resolves out of this triangle, rn it’s too early to say if it’s gonna breakdown or breakout, but whichever way it goes I prob want to be in it since it’s a very liquid stock and this is one of the biggest momo stocks rn, it’s a liquid lcap, and it’s always a very technically friendly stock to trade, just look at the daily and the 60min see how clean the moves are. I def want to be involved in it but prob not today.
• AMZN it’s a very healthy stock, it looks like one of these launching pads, looks absolutely amazing MSFT also, this is what you want to launch your mars rocket from. NVDA too, this is the type of structure if you want to go to mars you want to launch your rocket from something like this.

Misc:

• I wanna get in the head of these crazies. Guys this is our competition, you don’t have to be very smart.

#masterclass #earnings #ep