• QS was insane, I sold about half of what I bought in ib yesterday, I had like two stop outs on it, I bought it here [9:55am, mid 52s] got stopped out, I bought it here [high 54s] got stopped out, then I rebought it late day [mid 53s, 3pm, vwap reclaim], then it went up 55%. Then in my smallest cp account, the shares I bought here low 20s, I have sold a little more than half of those. What if QS goes to 100? I’m not sure about the short yet, I don’t trust it, I think it’s gonna dip a little bit, then gonna rebound and hold, I don’t think I’m gonna short this thing, I’m gonna keep my longs and if it goes back to 55 or whatever then so be it, I’m at a point where I’m risking giving back maybe 10 points to potentially make 20/25. Ok there you go, QS found support and now it’s back near hods, so far my thesis is playing out, let’s see if this thing can go to 100 today, we are in that market environment where you can have a ridiculous price target and it’s prob gonna happen, that’s how big the stupidity is in this market rn, that’s where we are. Everything going straight up, and now taking out hods, what a beast. Mid 80s, I’m gonna sell some more, I have a total of maybe 1/3 left, I came in long 45kshares, I have 15kshares left, gonna raise stop to today’s lows. QS over vwap, now it’s starting to behave better, wth was this bs below the vwap about. If it sets up later in the day with hls and tight range I’m gonna add, I’ll add like 15/20kshares, if I get a really good tight setup. I think this is gonna be a 5* short setup tomos if it goes to 100/120, ideal scenario it goes to 100 today then gaps up to like 120 tomos.
• QS so let’s go through some setups, bc as you know I’ve been nailing this thing the past two weeks. So my first buy was down here, mid/high 20s [23/11/2020], bc I saw the sector, the batteries, the ev stocks, they just kept going and going, so many of them, and then you had this QS with potentially game changing battery technology, a lot of big investors, I knew when Dantes started tweeting about it when it became public, I was like hey, this thing is starting to get volume, starting to get momo, I’ll buy some, everything else in the sector is going crazy. So that’s what I did, it wasn’t a clean setup, but I bought it on this day here [23/11/2020] mid high 20s 20kshares. Then it went straight up, more than doubled in a week or so, I got stopped out for a double mid 40s, pulled back found support on this magic 10day. Then I rebought it on this day here [4/12/2020], you can see a bit cleaner on the 60min, I rebought it orhs, stopped out half then I bought back the other half. They weren’t clean setups, but I just wanted low risk entries bc I knew you get these things once or twice per quarter, you get these ultra speculative names with sexy stories that go absolutely nuts. Then I traded yesterday, twice in my ib account I got stopped out, and the third time I rebought it when it reclaimed vwap intraday, low mid 53s, and up 50% since. It’s all about trying to find these low risk entries on something you have high conviction on.
• It’s like when I nailed these mask stocks earlier this year, when I bought APT at like $7 went to 40, and I sold like 25. INO when I bought 5.50s and went to like 19, that was kinda satisfying, it’s kinda satisfying nailing these high flyers. It’s one thing sitting in something like AMD or COUP, that go up 20/30% and it’s still good money bc these are big positions, or SNAP bought it at low 41s now it’s at 51, it’s kinda nice these are big positions it’s good money. But something like QS, this is not a big position of anything dollarwise, but when they shoot up 100% in a few days it’s kinda satisfying, it’s another type of feeling. It’s a different high, it’s kinda addictive, that’s what’s so scary and that’s why you gotta be so careful when you go on a big run and catch all these doubles and you nail things left and right, bc you’re gonna start chasing that high and you’re gonna start doing some bad positions. And when the market turns, when the speculation money leaves you gotta be so careful, bc you could give back half or most of what you made. I’m just enjoying this bc I know when these things end, it’s like someone flips a switch, and everyone goes from being euphoric to being depressed, so I’m just enjoying it, it’s kinda fun when you have action like this.
• THCB this is the one I had 50kshares in ib two days ago then I got stopped out yesterday at the open, wth was this weakness, who was the idiot that decided to sell 300kshares. Bought some shares premarket in ib, wish I still had those 50kshares from like 12.50 but instead I have like 20kshares from low 14s, it’s a chase incase it goes to 20s. You have to understand this is a very small position for me, like 1.5% total equity, not a meaningful position in anyway, if you decide to chase these things with a meaningful size you’re begging for it.
• LAZR, am gonna watch orls and vwap fails and stuff like that to add to my existing short, but not gonna do any crazy size bc already have some from yesterday. I was up like 6/700k at the lows yesterday, had it gone to 35 would have been up 1M, but I still have like 60% of the shares. Looking for a spot to add more to LAZR, it just built another lh and failing at vwap, so may be another add spot soon. Ah damn I missed the add spot. Come on LAZR, go to 32 today, it’s now kinda backside, it’s below vwap, these emas are starting to slope down and it’s building lhs, so far so good.
• MRNA, been bouncing for like 5/6days now, in case it wants to double top could be a trade there on the short side. Shorted lows [took out last 60min candle]. Look where MRNA found support, right on the 20ema on the 60min. Tightening up stop MRNA bc it’s holding support really well. Did add a little bit more to MRNA after it failed vwap again, have 40kshares short now. MRNA looks vulnerable on the 60min, it has an air pocket here 10% air pocket [to the 65ema], I have 11kshares short, may add more later if it starts fading, builds a tight range on the 5min and starts breaking lods. If it loses this 62 area later, this thing has no support until like high/mid 140s today.
• SBE short some orls. Stopped out hods. This thing is up like 6 days in a row, if it can have a big today and then maybe gap up tomos that’s gonna be a high conviction short just like LAZR was yesterday.
• SNOW, I think once this market stops going up, speculation money starts leaving, I think SNOW could be a long term short, this is one of the most ridiculously valued stocks in the market, and it’s a megacap, this thing trades like 200x sales it’s insane. I’d like to do very long term puts, like multi year, even the greatest companies can go down a lot, even if they keep executing, AMZN went down 95% once the internet bubble popped, and there was nothing wrong with the business, they kept growing like 30/50/100% per year in rev, yet the stock went down 95% bc of multiple contraction. I think the same thing is gonna happen to SNOW, I think it’s a great company, but it’s a megacap at 200x sales, but if I’m wrong, I have a limited loss potential.
• YALA could be a short maybe starting tomos, I’m not gonna personally do it too thin for me but maybe starting tomos especially if it starts speeding up and speeds up to high 20s or maybe even low 30s or something.
• PTON yeah it’s setting up, just needs to break out, kinda grinding higher, looks like it did back here just kinda grinding higher then it had a breakout day [29/9/2020] and then it just went up another 40% in a couple of weeks, you need to wait for that breakout I guess.
• TRNE, not a parabolic short no, it’s not up enough, looks like a big move but it’s not, it’s only a double, it’s been going straight up for a couple of weeks but it’s not even a big move, it’s only a double. And also, the past two days look at this consolidation on the 60min, just broke out of a flag yesterday, this is absolutely not a parabolic short.
• Gonna do some portfolio cleaning, get rid of these smaller positions, I have too many positions I can’t keep track of them all, just getting rid of the smaller ones. BILI, I’m happy with this trade, maybe it goes to 90 or something eventually, I know I shouldn’t but sometimes when you’re handling a portfolio like I do, I’m pretty proactive, bc I’m on margin and you don’t wanna play around when you’re on margin, you’ve gotta be really proactive, when you start seeing warning signs you’ve gotta be proactive, shoot first ask questions later. I’m not calling for a market top or anything I’m just managing my risk here, I’ve been on a really good run, just taking some chips off the table here.
• MARA got rid of it, could rebuy tomos but rn it’s just too weak, is holding below this 10day, has been showing rw compared to RIOT for like 1/2weeks now.
• PINS bought breakout. Breakout is kinda soft so far, these types of breakouts, they’re better when the market has been pulling back or going sideways for a while, when you get these types of breakouts after the market has been straight up the odds of success diminishes.
• RAD as a short for tomos, yeah it could work, it’s up 75/80% and it’s starting to speed up, it’s not a huge mover but yeah it could work, definitely, starting tomos.
• FNMA is probably the most liquid stock on OTC, this thing was epic back in 2013, one of the most epic things I’ve ever seen. I once increased my account by 50% in one day by shorting FNMA then playing the bounce on it, my account went from 8k to 12k, that was the trade that turned my trading around, May2013, I had been a struggling trader for 2years, I had been consistently losing money, that was the trade that gave me confidence like ‘hey I can do this, I can do this.’ I was at rock bottom mentally.
• I started the year with 3.5M and I’m up like 25M on the year, so you can double, triple, quadruple a big account too, and if we get a good trading year next year I don’t see a problem why can’t I double the current account size. You just need to have good setups and confidence in those setups, and experience, you also need experience, to know when to push and when to take a step back, takes time, I’ve been doing this for nine years now, you’re not gonna get it in the first couple of years, if you make money in the first couple of years you’re either very lucky or you’re very good. Took me two years to start making money, took me two years.
• SPCE is the first spac, I think SPCE is the one that sparked the spac mania, I didn’t even know what a spac was until this SPCE spac late last year, since then there’s been dozens of others.
• There is most def gonna be a crash sooner or later, there’s always gonna be a crash, no matter what, it’s an inherent part of the markets, and all you have to do is listen to the markets, listen to what stocks are doing, what the market is doing, the market is gonna tell you, it’s not like the market is one day gonna open down 30%, no, the market is gonna top out, it’s gonna show weakness, then it’s gonna show some accelerated selling, and you gotta listen.
• When doing DD, I’m looking at the them, I’m looking at the group, I’m also looking at growth numbers, bc if you get the sector right it doesn’t really matter which stock you buy, it’s better to hold the sh*ttiest stock in the hottest sector, than hold the best stock in a not very hot sector.
• Zanger, I subscribed to his service, I went through all of his newsletters, I just looked at what he was looking for, he looks also for these explosive growth stocks with a lot of momo. You notice he’s doing the same thing over and over again, the same patterns, the same types of stocks, you buy strong stocks with momo in good markets. And he talks about love your stops not your stocks, that really resonated with me.
• BIDU breaking out of a 6month base yeah, but this is not really a momo stock, it’s a slower name, not a leader so to say. This thing was a leader back in 2009-2012 or so was a big mover, and also 2006-2007. BIDU is a good stock to go back and look at, this thing has been a big growth stock, was growing 50/100% per year, that’s why it made this kind of a big move between 2006-2014 or so, it was a big growth stock and look at this thing, it’s a good stock to learn from, lot of textbook breakouts, EPs, etc.
• Gonna start stalking some of these extended etfs for potential short entries (SOXL, ARKG), just putting some alerts out there, I think we go much higher, but these can’t keep going straight up forever.

Misc:

• Hey guys do you want to see me play total war warhammer, maybe I won’t cut the stream.

#shorting #masterclass