187 [Finally a washout in the markets – Newbies getting schooled. Sep 4, 2020]

  • You should never freeze. You should always have a plan, for any scenario, you should always have an out. And when that out triggers you should just execute, no second thoughts.
  • You can always watch but you have to develop that skill yourself, I’m here for motivation and inspiration, I can’t remotely teach how to manage emotions and stuff like that, you learn from pain, that’s how you learn. You don’t learn from books or watching a stream or a youtube, you can always get setup ideas and stuff like that, and implement them into your trading, but the hardest part which is emotions, and second thoughts, and fomo and stuff like that, that thing has to be experienced. Success in trading it’s not about how many times you fall, it’s how many times you get up. That’s what separates successful traders from not successful, you should always try to learn from your mistakes, if you froze yesterday what’s your plan for not freezing again, what are you gonna do diff if that scenario happens again? That’s what you should be focussing on.
  • It always gets tricky when you get a parabolic move like this, bc then the price is above the 10day and 20day and the 10day is above the 20day but it still could be a really bad environment for buying breakouts bc the market is so extended, that’s when you get these sharp pullbacks, happens every time, and yesterday was day1, this could go on for weeks.
  • TSLA hit 380 ah or premarket, I should have covered some, it was right at the 20day, undercut actually now it’s trying to bounce. I’m waiting for the first 5min red candle to short, ideally this thing bounces to low 430s that would be ideal, but waiting for first red 5min to add. Bouncing off vwap for now, added to short 416 break of 5min red candle. About to take out yesterday’s lows. Power down ticks, now we are on the 20day, covered some of adds. TSLA is def on backside now, bc both the 10/20ema on the 60min are sloping down now, and even the 65ema, so every time the stock rallies into these, they will act as a resistance level. Now obv it can always reclaim and go higher and then it won’t be backside, but for now it is backside. The 10day is starting to slope down too, so rn it is definitely backside. Looks good, lhs all the way, you clearly saw it, this is what I saw you had this range here and I tweeted late day, lhs, it’s the exact opposite of what we’re looking for the upside. Lower highs and a tight range. Same thing, you get these bullflags on the 60min and bearflags on the 60min. You gotta learn these patterns, they repeat over and over and over again. And you can daytrade, you can swingtrade, you can position trade, if you learn the patterns you can trade anyway you want. Covered a sh*t load more, stop is gonna be hods. Look how perfectly TSLA rallied into this declining 20ema and 65ema and got rejected, this is what you call backside.
  • OSTK, covering some, undercut the 50day here, could be a big bounce spot, aggressively lowering stop on it.
  • I don’t trust this bounce, I think we’re gonna bounce a few days then continue lower. One day doesn’t determine a trend, we have to wait and see. Now is the time to see which stocks are bouncing the most on this bounce, and the ones that are not bouncing, those are the ones that could be good shorts in the next few days if the markets will then go lower, bc then you know those stocks they don’t have any buyers, they’re just waiting for a reason to go lower. And vice versa, here’s where you see rs and rw.
  • KCAC is an insane one, that late day breakout on it, really textbook. It built hls all day, had huge volume, then it had a late day breakout.
  • TWTR not really bouncing. Sized down TWTR and BILI by 1/3, just trying to play defence here.
  • TQQQ added to short orls. TQQQs about to lose 20day. Guess I’ve got to cover some TQQQs here, don’t really have much of a choice. At the 50day, gonna cover a sh*t load here, covered another 7kshares, obv we could go lower but the washout for now has been a really good washout, exactly what I was looking for.
  • UVXY stopped out, showing rw compared to TQQQ, TQQQs are below yesterday’s lows but UVXY is off yesterday’s highs.
  • I usually always scale a little bit into strength, but it depends on the stock. Does the stock have potential to go up 20/30% or does it have potential to go up 100%? So I scale accordingly. Like a slower stock, like JD, when I bought it here I didn’t think it was gonna double but I did think it could go up 20/30/40%, so every 3-4% I sell like 5-7% of my position. While something like LAC which I think could 2/3/4x from here, I don’t think I’ve scaled anything yet, even though I was up like 60% at one point, so it depends.
  • PnL, TSLA $1M trade. This is what you can do guys, if you really apply yourselves, I started with a few thousand, anyone can do this, but you really need to put in the hard work. It takes time, you can’t go from A-B in one day, week, month or even a year, it takes time. Small adjustments, every year I try to do more of what works, and less of what doesn’t work. That’s how you get to this point. I’m here for inspiration and motivation, the hard part, you gotta do the hard part, you gotta learn the setups, I can just show you the setups, you have to learn them yourself. You need to learn the patterns, you need to feel the rhythm of the market, like I started warning about this market pullback earlier this week, I said there are few setups, things are getting extended and we got the pullback, and I went heavily short TSLA and TQQQ. You can make money both ways, you don’t need a rising market to make money, a rising market is easiest to make money both long and short, but if you can nail a decline, that’s a good thing too.
  • I’m up 400k since I showed the pnl, no joke. This is why I’m a swingtrader man, you can just get your entries right and just sit and wait, you don’t have to do anything, you can browse reddit, you can watch some Brandi Love, you can take a walk, you can do anything, you can shop for boats. It’s just such an easy living, daytrading is such a hard living, it’s a young man’s game. Even if you have a small account you can still sit back and relax and let the trade work, that’s the key to trading, you shouldn’t have to work too hard, I really believe that, took me too long to realise it, the best trades are the ones that you get your entry then you just sit back and relax. Brandi Love’s great grandfather said this 100 years ago; the big money is in sitting tight. So much wisdom in this book [reminiscences] I just wish I had realised a lot of the things he said much earlier.
  • M Burry bought GME 13 years ago, is he still in it? I hope he’s not still in it, hasn’t done well over the past 13 years. I get it if you want to buy something cheap, but buying a deteriorating business, I just don’t get that. Isn’t it better to buy a good business that’s expanding and growing and getting stronger and pay up a little bit? Rather than buying something that’s declining, idk, I mean who the hell goes and buys a game from a Gamestop, why do you wanna own something like this? I don’t get it.
  • W, oh wow. These types of stocks can be great short opps if you’re awake, the ones that rally for many months, like W went up over 1000%, and now once it started closing below the 10/20day, straight down. These things can be really good, you can trade so many ways, but you have to be in the leaders, the ones that go up the most also go down the most, you can’t trade some random sh*t, you gotta be in the leaders. Okay sure you can trade smallcaps and microcaps but those things usually work in bursts, they only work when times are good.
  • NVAX need to cover a bunch here, ykw I’ll cover all of it, enough is enough it’s a big trade. I shorted it right here, you had this range, got tighter and tighter and when it broke this range to the downside 141, that’s where I shorted it, build lhs and had this range break. And all the corona names started breaking down, it’s down 37% since. Head and shoulders? Yeah maybe, I don’t really look at it that way, what I look at is hls, lhs and trendbreaks, that’s what I look at. I think it’s too complex of a pattern. They’re all dying, this was the hottest sector for about 5/6months and now it’s the coldest sector out there, that’s what happens, that’s how stocks move, that’s why you always need an exit strategy, no matter what.
  • How I handled the past few days is exactly how I handled the Feb2020 top, I had a big portfolio coming in mid/late Feb before the corona stuff, then there was no long setups, they disappeared, I got stopped out one by one and it was a process it didn’t happen in one day, it was a week long process to go from net long to net short. One by one, then I started seeing short setups and shorting a bunch of stuff, so I went from 150% net long to 100%, to 0% net long, to 50% net short, it was a process over several days. Exact same thing happened past 3-4days this week. Exact same thing, there is a method to this, a process, can’t do things randomly. I remember DXCM was the last stock I got stopped out of when it finally broke the 50day [11/03/2020], the market had already tanked almost 20%.

Misc:

  • WSB browsing.
  • Brandi 2024, I’m in, I’m gonna fund her campaign, I’m gonna be a top campaign donor.
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