168 [Made back my $1.5M loss from last week! Swing trading school last 40 minutes. Aug 4, 2020]

  • SEDG, that’s a very very good setup, keeps surfing the 20day, here it undercut the 20day, bounced off the 50day, here it undercut the 20day and reclaimed, closed in the base and now it’s gapping higher. I just can’t figure out these earnings, they’re gonna have negative rev growth next Q, yeah they had a big beat, but the earnings growth is 3%, rev growth is 2%, idk sometimes some stocks are just very hard to figure out, that’s fine bc there are hundreds of other stocks to trade, but this is the only one that has a nice chart coming out of a nice base, most things broke out last week.
  • DPHC, bought it yesterday midday [50kshares], this is Lordstown motors is going public via this spac, and also WKHS brokeout yesterday since they own a part of Lordstown, having some gap up this morning. Selling a little DPHC into gap up [5kshares].
  • JMIA, still long, sold a sh*t load of shares yesterday, this has been an absolute homerun didn’t see this coming, 500k trade, up 160% from entry. Good chance I sell all today, still have 1/3 size, and maybe even flip short. Selling all JMIA. Could have a nice day trade on the short side, entry was when it went g/r, may be a secondary entry later (rejected off vwap, takes out lods etc), but I don’t think good enough yet.
  • KODK, I think this thing will have a nice bounce, it’s down 75% from the highs, could easily bounce back to $20. Ultra liquid. We already know it’s a lot of fraud and probably shenanigans involved, won’t affect it, if it’s gonna go to 20 it’s gonna go to 20. If it’s gonna bounce, it’s gonna bounce, we’re just looking for a few days of bounce not an investment. Missed entry orhs, did 1/3 size 50kshares chasing a little bit here. Getting really tight, bought another 32kshares here, either it works or it doesn’t.
  • TSLA starting to go, bought 2600shares. This is a 5* setup, memorise this, big big move, surfing the 20day, just coming out of a tight range, just an incredible setup. Having trouble breaking that area, but it doesn’t have to go today, this thing has potential, it just can’t break down, finds support on the rising 20day every single time, it hasn’t closed below since early april, except for 2days ago but it was still kinda in this base formation. Every time you have a very extended stock that just refuses to go down, and builds hls, you gotta pay attention. Stopped out, try again tomos.
  • Lots fading out of gate. A lot of things look like they’re found support on the 60min, MARA found support on the rising 20ema, NXTD too, APT bouncing off the 65ema, CODX the 20ema, WKHS the 10ema, ZM the 10ema, etc. We’ll see how they digest this opening weakness.
  • Yeah Dan Zanger has been a big influence, I’ve studied his methods a lot, a actually went to one of his seminars in SF, I learned a lot from him; he’s a momo trader, I’m a momo trader, he likes explosive growth stocks, I like explosive growth stocks, and it works, it’s a timeless method.
  • If you wanna learn swingtrading, stockbee has a lot of good content, he has a free blog and a paid site, I’m a member, it’s a great community, I learned a lot from Pradeep over the years. He’s no nonsense, he’s only focussed on things that work, he does a lot of studies and backtests, he doesn’t trade on opinions he trades on facts, and what is instead of what should be.
  • LVGO, another one I sold it in the low 100s bc I thought it was getting extended, I break my own rules all the time, sometimes it’s so hard to wait for that first close below the 10day, it’s up 40% since I sold it. That has to be one of my biggest weaknesses, just holding a stock that looks very extended.
  • NKLA starting to bounce yesterday, this thing has been reverse surfing, it’s the same concept like on longs, you can see how clean it is, keeps finding resistance on the 65ema, then it started finding resistance on the 20ema on the 60min, then once it kinda gapped out of that range, reclaimed and held above the 20ema, that’s when it started grinding higher, reclaimed the 65ema and.. it’s the same principal.
  • This is the basic premise: you have a strong stock makes a big move, doesn’t matter if this is a 1/3/6month move doesn’t matter the timeframe, but it has to be in the top 1/2% of strongest stocks in that timeframe. Then what happens is they usually pull back to a MA (10/20/50day), then they get tight, surfing the MA, then they breakout of this tight range. And the best ones are the ones that show rs, the ones that can’t go lower even if the indices and the markets overall are showing weakness and going lower, these things can’t break lower and may even be building hls.
  • SHOP, this is a perfect looking one, had a big big move, went sideways for a couple of weeks, started building hls, built a tight range, then it broke out. Perfect setup. So the first one it bounced off the 10day, look how it’s surfing the 10day, then it has a sharp pullback bc it gets extended, even the best stocks pullback eventually. Then it finds support rising 20day, starts surfing, it is below the 20day but it’s building hls, has another range, gets really tight, and this is our entry, orhs. 1/5/60min candle orh. I think we got stopped out the first time then rebought the 60min candle.
  • TSLA, another perfect one, the strongest stocks find support on the rising 10day, or if it’s early in the move. Then it gets tighter and tighter, builds hls, starts surfing the 20day, and here is an early breakout, we kinda anticipated the rangebreak just looked so perfect. Then next day it gapped up and we added more on the orhs. 1/5/60min orh candle break. Usually you wanna get in an early as possible, so you wanna use the 1/5min, but sometimes the fail rate on the 1/5min are a bit higher than the 60min, so you may get stopped out and you have to rebuy higher, but usually you wanna get in as early as possible when you have a 5* setup.
  • FSLY I think we bought on earnings, but you know, keeps surfing the rising 10day, builds hls, then builds a little flag up here, look how tight it gets, then it breaks out, and you can use the 10day as your trailing stop, first close below. This one broke out again last week and now it’s on a new run. This is just how stocks act, this is what strong stocks do in strong markets. This is what momo leaders do in momo markets, and what is a momo market; a momo market is when the 10/20day (I use the Nasdaq, 90% of the stocks I trade are Nasdaq stocks, I couldn’t care less about SPY or NYSE, for me the market is Nasdaq). So when the 10day and 20day are rising, and the 10day is above the 20day, that’s a momo market. You don’t have to catch any lows after the market bottoms, you just have to catch the meat in the middle. If you get any breakouts when the 10/20day sloping down, when the 10day is below the 20day, there’s a high fail rate, you prob shouldn’t swing trade on the long side.
  • APT looks fine, just surfing the 65ema on the 60min, on the daily is the 10day, looks fine, I’m using the 20day as my stop on it, it’s just in a range, nothing wrong with it. If a stock is in a range it’s gonna go up or it’s gonna go down, just bc it has a down candle, ignore it, it’s just in a range.
  • ONTX, yeah very good setup for those of you with very small accounts, if it starts breaking that high 1 teens on volume, this is the kinda setup you can risk 5-8c to make 50c/$1.
  • ALT looks decent, surfing the 20day, big momo stock, hottest sector out there, vaccines, not very liquid, I may trade it if it has a good setup in the coming days.
  • NVAX getting a bit extended, several good setups on the way but no stock runs forever, sooner or later it’s gonna start failing and then pullback.
  • In a bear market I do more mean reversion shorts or longs, but in a downtrending market, there is just not as many opps. The best long and short opps are when the markets are strong and going higher and you get a lot of big runners, that’s when you get the best shorting opps also not only longs.
  • UAVS, actually looking pretty good, if it takes out hods later, this is a 5* setup. Big move, pullback, finds support on the rising 20day, then you have this right tight range, and it gapped up, so far it sold off the gap, but if it starts taking out hods, or it doesn’t even have to take out hods but if it closes really strong 3.05/3.10s, that could be an entry also, and then you use the lods as stop. So you either have to wait for it to take out hods, or if it closes strong like just a few pennies below hods. But rn it just got rejected off the vwap, rn it’s all about waiting.
  • OSTK is gonna pullback eventually, this thing is up 3200% from the march lows, there’s gonna be a big pullback but rn I just don’t see it, Just keeps building hls on the 60min, look how it’s riding the 10/20ema, as long as these things are acting as support there is no short here. It either needs to get below the 10/20ema and these things start acting as resistance, or if it goes really parabolic to like 110/120+, unless any of those scenarios happen I don’t see a short in there.
  • When you’re a swingtrader you can’t just freak out anytime the stock has a downtick, the whole point of swingtrading is giving the stocks room to move. In daytrading you’re always fighting near your entry, in swingtrading you just gotta let things work out. Sometimes you’re gonna get big swings without the stop stopping you out, and it sucks, it looks scary, you look at your pnl like ‘oh there goes my pnl’ but it’s all about having a specific process.


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