150 [Big shorting opportunities developing in $NIO and $OSTK. Jul 8, 2020]

  • LVGO had a nice run after the adds in high 76s/77s, selling last of adds today if it keeps going. You can see all the way up kept riding the 10/20day, 10/20day, all you need to focus on. This is how institutional quality stocks should act. Stop trading random piece of sh*t stocks, start focusing on the leaders, you want the stocks that surf the 10/20day, you want to be in the momo leaders.
  • BILI and PDD shakeouts two days ago, sold adds. But so far they both found support on the rising 10day, both put in higher lows, so the charts are still intact. Textbook charts, just want a few days sideways so can get another add.
  • TSLA sold long and went short yesterday, held decent position [3kshares] overnight, but not sure this is it. Stopped out of half premarket. Reshorted those shares orls.
  • NIO sold yesterday when it started taking out the prev day lows [10.93], now it’s 30% higher. Shorted some first 5min red candle, took a starter 60kshares. It’s breaking downside 5min candles, will be looking for an add spot. Stopped out. Now it’s undercut vwap again, if it can’t get back above may start adding back, more size than last time. Building lhs, failed vwap again, shorted 70kshares, second recent high as stop. Failed the bounce, couldn’t even retest vwap, now it looks like it wants to go lower.
  • OSTK shorted some, only did 30kshares, stock now that liquid. Think could fade back to high/mid 30s over the next few sessions, rising 10day. Covered some 44s. Straight down, covered 1/3 now.
  • Options are a suckers game, it’s needless complexity. You always want the odds in your favour, and every time you add complexity, you have worse odds. Complexity is a losers game, everyone is chasing complexity but simplicity is the way to financial freedom, really is. Every year I’m trying to do things more and more simple, I wouldn’t be surprised if in 5 years I don’t even use MAs, I’m always trying to remove stuff. It’s all a distraction, the more things you have on your charts, the more things to look at, the more distracted you get. Trading is all about execution, you execute the best if you only watch a few things, number one, and number two if you have conviction. It’s hard to have conviction if you’re watching a lot of things, and it’s hard to have conviction if you haven’t spent hundreds or even thousands of hours studying a certain setup.
  • Htfs only work in very few market environments, and this is one of these, you don’t get htfs in most markets.
  • DOCU is not extended, it just went sideways for like 3 days, now it’s trying to inch higher. It either needs to go parabolic, like start speeding up and go to 300 or 250 in a short amount of time, or it needs to start to break support levels on the 60min, get below the 10/20emas. Right now there is no edge here, it’s not overextended and it’s still on frontside.
  • PRTS broke out of its flag, this is like a 5* setup holy sh*t, but the entry was in the low 9s, now it’s too late, already up 10%. It looked too perfect, but sometimes you do get perfect setups, especially in microcap land.
  • If you wanna buy the pump stocks, that’s fine, but make sure you’re buying on a good setup and not just bc it’s going up therefore it has to go higher. Understand whenever you see this illiquid stocks randomly go out of nowhere, there’s a couple of chatrooms on this thing, there’s a good chance if you buy you’re gonna sell to those guys, so make sure there’s gonna be some buying after you buy.
  • FSLY is absolutely not a buy today. It was a buy in the mid 20s when we initially bought, then it had another good setup in the 50/51 area, then I rebought yesterday in the mid 87s. Today is not a good add spot, it’s already a very extended stock. Especially when you have an extended stock like these, you’ve gotta be very careful, you cannot chase. chasing sometimes works when a stock is coming out of a big big base, like here on the earnings day, but especially when a stock is already super extended it’s like trying to squeeze the last drops out of a towel, that’s what this setup is. You have very small margins of error, you’ve gotta buy them precisely when they come out of a range otherwise you’re gonna be dead, you won’t be trading in 6 months.
  • BLDP rebought, this is very stupid and not something I usually do. But I got stopped out yesterday, if this thing goes to 25/30 without me I’m gonna be very unhappy.
  • ZM bought 7kshares, let’s go to 300. Again not a traditional setup, but when I see, look at how tight this thing is, this could start speeding up soon, unless it breaks down but that’s what stops are for, but this thing could do something amazing. I am trading a few untraditional setups, I very rarely do that, but sometimes when the markets are.. you just have to adapt. Very high fail rate on that setup, but in case we go into a parabolic rally in the markets, I want to be positioned in some of the momo leaders, more heavily than I already am. Yes it is chasing, but sometimes when you’re in a lockup rally, a meltup market, I’m doing a few untraditional things.
  • SOLO, this was a perfect htf breakout, entry was in the low 2 teens, a 5* setup. Those of you with smaller accounts should have been all over it, is an ev pump stock.
  • If you see a specific setup in something, trade that specific setup. But there are funds with hundreds of millions under management buying this thing, buying up GLD, central banks, and it’s going up daily. Why would you short this thing? You should never fight the tape, there always has to be a specific setup, you can’t trade on opinions alone. I don’t think it is a good short at all, it’s literally hitting new highs as we speak, this thing could speed up and go to low 200s over the next few weeks. It’s been building base on a base for a couple of years now.
  • I did lower my stops as it went lower, but not b/e. You’ve gotta give stocks some wiggle room, especially when you’re swing and position trading. They don’t have to go straight up or straight down just bc you entered them, you need to give them some wiggle room.
  • I pretty much only go through backwatch lists when I’m cleaning up. So this is what I use backwatchlists for, I pretty much track stocks that gapped up on news, or breakouts, stuff like that which looked decent. This is how you build the skill, you need to see how stocks move, you need to learn how stocks move. You need to go back and track these things.
  • NKLA would have been a 5* long setup if it gapped down, but it didn’t that’s why I passed on it. It could bounce here, I just don’t see an edge on it rn.
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