140 [Frothy market, and I LOVE IT. Jun 19, 2020]

  • We are starting to see some froth, it feels like there could be a rugpull at any moment, watching the signs, so far I haven’t seen any sign of a potential pullback, so far everything just wants to go straight up, so I’m not gonna argue with that, I’m just gonna ride the trends.
  • Focus on the fast moving stocks, that’s where the money is. You want the most bang for your buck, and you get it in the stocks that have big range.
  • NKLA bought some yday and may buy more, it’s a htf, this is the best looking thing out there rn, this thing could go to 100. Bought some more orhs, bar far biggest position now, 30kshares. Took out orls, stopped out of adds.
  • SHLL, I wouldn’t trade it, I just don’t see an edge here. This thing could go bankrupt, it’s a very very thin stock, it’s gonna shake out both ways, idk, it smells of trouble, it’s an ignore for me. Not my type of trade.
  • I use mostly market orders, 90% of my orders are market orders.
  • UONE, it looks like there could be a short entry here, but you’d have to use a $10 stop, that’s a 24% stop. That’s just so wide, idk I’m scared. It does have an entry this area, it’s below vwap, idk, I need the chart to develop a little bit. 11am, it’s getting very tight, building lhs, below vwap. F*ck I missed it, tried to short it at 44.
  • I’m gonna show you guys the power of relative strength, you need to understand this. Why did I buy BILI? One, the chart looks good, it’s been one of the strongest, very linear, it keeps riding the 20day, built a range here, it’s a growth stocks, very good rev growth. Look at these two days, the 11th and 12th of this month, this is when the QQQs pulled back, two big red days. What did BILI do? It tried to go lower on the Thur couldn’t, found support on the rising 20day, Fri when the market’s kept going down, this thing broke out, that’s relative strength. The stock is literally yelling in your face, ‘I WANT TO GO HIGHER’. All you have to do is listen. All you have to do is listen. LVGO is another one, it was literally yelling in everyone’s face, ‘I want to go higher. I have tripled in a few months, I’ve been building hls for a month, a range for a month, and when the market went down big, I didn’t go down at all’. What is the stock telling you? All you have to do is listen. Those of you who are frenetically looking for stocks to buy, you’re doing it wrong, now is the time to sell to those crazy chasers.
  • How do you reprogram your brain? Well it’s very simple, you just have to experience a few episodes where you don’t obey your stops, and then the stock goes down or up a lot more and you lose even more money. Where you lose like 5/10x more money than you would have if you just obeyed your stop. After that you’re not gonna feel disappointed when you get stopped out. You’re taking it personally, don’t take it personally, the market is just telling you ‘Hey, I’m not ready yet’, the stock is just telling you ‘I’m not ready yet’. The stop is a way for you to protect yourself. It’s all about framing, instead of thinking the market is gunning my stops, the market gods are against me, it’s all about, hey it’s okay, the stock is just telling me it’s not ready yet, now I have to regroup and wait for a better setup. Don’t love your stocks, love your stops, as Dan Zanger said.
  • The reason I don’t just concentrate on a few stocks is bc there’s no reason to, bc being concentrated on margin on just 3/4 stocks is just begging for trouble. In a bull market like this, there’s hundreds of stocks that go up a lot, there’s no reason to be in just 3/4. There’s so many unknown risks, maybe this BYND they lose their biggest partnership, this could be down 30% overnight. It’s just not worth the risk, I have 24 stocks, I don’t usually have this many stocks, I don’t like to be in this many, but we’ve been in a three month bull run, that’s what happens, I accumulate a lot of positions. I trim and trail, then if I see a good setup I buy it. Most of these positions I have sold 1/3 or maybe even 1/2 already, bc they’ve gone up so much, some have gone up 50/100% since I bought them.
  • When I start seeing things starting to reverse, first thing I do is get off margin. Then the next few days, how they act, I may start selling down aggressively. I can go from being like rn 150% net long, to 50% net long in a few days. And maybe put on a bunch of shorts etc. The first ones I get rid of are the ones that haven’t really gone yet, and the ones that are the most extended, I sell a bunch, maybe not all but a bunch, just reduce risk a bit.
  • Look at the chart, if it’s already way above the rising 10/20day, it’s not a good long setup. That’s a general rule of thumb that’s gonna work 99% of the time. DKNG, this is a good setup, surfing the 10/20day, if this thing can go sideways today, both will have caught up to price, then it will be ready to break out, and it will be very tight. MRNA is a great setup, it’s right, just hugging these MAs, the 20day has turned down briefly, but it doesn’t matter, it’s still in a strong uptrend, now it’s riding the rising 50day, this is more common with the larger cap names. Another NKLA, surfing the 10day, tried to breakout today, got stopped out of adds, just needs probably one more day, then it’s gonna go.
  • The biggest secret to the markets is there is no secret, just hard work.
  • Yep expiration of everything, expiration of my ego. Right now my ego is at aths, my ego needs a pullback. Guys don’t short my ego, my ego is gonna go parabolic next week, you’re gonna get run over. Don’t short it next, wait for next week. My ego is very htb, if you can get shares they’re like $10 per share, it’s like the most expensive borrow ever. Wait until next week to short my ego, there is a pullback coming guys, but it may go parabolic first. No broker has shares of my ego short, I’m not lending them to the brokerages, I’m holding all shares.
  • The market has been based on expectations for 200 years. There is no such thing as fairly valued stocks or a fairly valued market. We could go on like this for years. history has shown us that before. Look at the 20s, the 60s the 90s. The best thing you can do is just keep politics and personal opinions out of your trading, that’s one of the best pieces of advice I can give. A lot of people just trading their own biases, that makes no money. The best advice I can give you just learn the language of the markets, spend a couple thousand hours studying stocks.
  • Once you find a specific setup, and have specific rules, you don’t need any of that trading psych crap. It’s all poison, they’re for people who haven’t spent enough time to work out what works. A lack of method, a lack of process and a lack of knowledge of the markets and setups and how things work in the stock market, people mistake for bad psych.
  • The 50day works as a good pullback entry, and also for slower moving stocks as a stop. But for stocks that double/triple in a short amount of time, the 10/20day work much better. The 50day is good to buy once a growth leader has pulled back a lot, and builds a setup around there.
  • Liquidity is dollar volume; shares traded x share price.
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