100 [Damn gap down. They are not giving us a good setup… Apr 15, 2020]

  • Stopped out of shorts yesterday, now we’re gapping down. TSLA shorted early midday yesterday, then late day, had a nice fade, covered most and held some overnight, GS upgraded it, had a big move stopped me out. Now I’m short a starter premarket. If you look at pm/ah data it does have a range at 731 on the 60min, so far it’s showing rs. Yesterday it showed rw, when QQQs rallied TSLA faded, so we’ll see if when the market opens, intraday weakness sets back in. Added orl, taking out range on 60min. Stopped out, let it do what it has to do, is an ignore for now unless it takes out orls. Back in tiny starter on break of first red 5min candle. Below vwap and rejected off vwap twice now, is a very tight stop, but I’ll wait a little bit, rn is holding below vwap. Now TSLA def showing rw. TSLA staying below vwap so far while QQQs at hod. Now it’s finally showing some rw, that’s exactly what I wanted to see. Now let’s say we keep squeezing in the markets for a few hours, once we stop going up, I think TSLA could have a big fade.
  • Super annoying gap down, if we had gapped up would have been 5* setup, but mrkt not giving us any easy trades right now. TSLA too, I actually talked about it on the long side back here [8/4/20] when it was in a tight tight range, I talked about if it goes below I’ll short, if it goes up i’ll go long. Instead it gapped up and I never got in it, went up 30% in a few sessions. It gapped up bc the mrkts gapped up. Not an easy trading environment. A lot of set ups are screwed by the daily gaps up. Even though we’ve had a big big rally, this is not a healthy mrkt, I still think this is a bear mrkt rally, I’m treating it as one. The only way it’s gonna convince me is if we pull back, go sideways for a bit, then see if the leading growth names are holding up or not.
  • Watching some of these triple etfs, SPXL, TQQQ , SOXL, right now they are bouncing off the gap down, but maybe later in the day let’s see how they act. gonna short the weakest one, past few sessions that’s been SPXL. SOXL Shorted some [1/2], SMH had a big rally, got rejected off the 150day, may want to take a leg lower. Also stopped in SPXL [half size].
  • AYTU bought 150k shares orhs, it’s just taking out a long range on the 60min chart on big vol. C19 testing.
  • BMRA, this one had a really nice chart two days ago but no follow through, that’s what I think will happen to VXRT too, looks good today, but tomorrow or the day after it’s just gonna go lower again. Not really been a follow through type of a market.
  • I fully expect to get stopped out of everything, I’ve been so conditioned to getting stopped out of stuff the past few weeks, I’ve given up all hope.
  • Speculative sentiment is really back. Look at the runners we’ve had the past couple of sessions. SONN gapped up and ran 200%, NURO went from a dollar to 6 dollars in 2-3 sessions, MEIP, there was a few others. WORX is another, went from 2 to 15 in one day, pretty damn insane, but this may be a legit one.
  • SPR is in a major bear flag here, looks like it want to break lower. I’m not gonna take it, not my kinda setup, but it is looking v weak. It’s like the opposite of a bull triangle, this is a bear triangle. I prefer shorting stuff like TSLA, once they stop going up, once they go into backside, but many times the best shorts are the ones that are actually weak and not strong.
  • I just keep to the stuff I understand, and heck I barely understand stocks. I have no business.. I tried options, I’m too scared of doing futures or forex, I tried BTC, ETH. The most important thing is not what you know, it’s that you realise the things you don’t know. Knowing what you don’t know is more important than knowing a lot of stuff. It keeps you out of trouble. And if you can stay out of trouble, you only need to do a few things right and you’ll get successful anyways. Circle of competence.
  • Tons of screen time, and not only screen time, but one really has to go back in time, look at charts, look at news, look at what moves stocks, look at the moves in correlation to the overall markets. You have to do a lot of studying, watching, picking up different nuances of the markets. It takes thousands and thousands of hours. Thousands. Conviction, you get by doing.
  • HTMMIS, a couple of Minervini books that are pretty good, he talks about probabilities and position sizing stuff like that. Those are my favourites, if you wanna really understand, market mechanics and fundamentals stuff like that. There’s a lot of great trading books, Nicholas Darvas book is good, also has a great story.
  • WORX conference call. This may be a scam, lot of sketchy things being said about it. I might short if we get a setup, now it’s holding up though, obviously it could always squeeze higher, but there is a big range here mid 8s or so, if it breaks below that. Obviously we need a good setup on this thing, not gonna short it just because there’s some sketchy people behind it, could go to 50. The sketchiest stocks make the biggest moves. I took a starter short, it’s been building lhs for 2 days, I’ll add if it weakens, and if it closes really weak, I’m gonna hold it overnight. Stupid SSR is on, I only got filled quarter size, now it’s going straight down, halted.


  • Stops are for losers, stops are for people who want to get shaken out. Just buy everything, don’t use stops. QE trading guys, just buy and forget.
  • Rome II Total War.
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