• Would have been much better if we’d gapped down, then we would have gotten these enormously valuable reversal setups, now we’re gapping up into these declining MAs and it’s a casino, don’t know whether it’s gonna go up or down, hard to get conviction either way.
• EYES I took a loss on, covered it early premarket right here, usually when I’m short things I check in when the ecns open but I was late today forgot I was short this thing, so I could have gotten out some of it earlier, but I started covering in the 14s. I will be looking for a re entry. Shorted orls. The 10day is usually my target on these parabolic short setups, secondary would be the 20day, that’s usually where they bounce. I should have added when it failed at vwap.
• DISCA, watching this I think the time for a mean reversion is coming soon, it’s not one of these 1000% runners but it’s a lcap stock and it’s up 22 of the last 25 sessions or something, it can have a pullback to the 20day. Missed it bc I was watching eyes, that’s fine you don’t need to be in everything.
• BTC has stayed strong, maybe I’ll go some GBTC orhs, it is up 3days in a row which I don’t like, but it is reclaiming this range and reclaiming the 20day, not an ideal setup but BTC is showing strength.
• CAN has a decent setup, I would prefer a fmd sideways, but it had also been strong, bounced off the 20day, been relentlessly building hls. Bought some orhs. The setup on CAN itself is not 5 star but if you put it in context what the market has been doing over the past couple of weeks, all these momo stocks down 50/70% then you have something like this, it’s right back at highs, held up bounced off the 20day built a wick, and now it’s breaking out of this range with BTC being really really strong, that makes it a 5 star setup.
• MSTR bought some orhs. I don’t like that MSTR is getting rejected on the 10day for now, or the 65ema on the 60min.
• If the market goes up the biggest winners will probably be the ones that are still in their uptrends, something like PLUG or TSLA, had a big move, pulled back to one of these rising MAs, stick to the ones still in their uptrends, not something like RMO total pos. PLUG is building hls over the 100day, but they need more ranges.
• This is the thing with markets like these, when they go up everyone gets bullish again, you have a red candle everyone gets bearish, this is why I trade ranges, wait for the range to develop, there’s no edge trading something when the indices are in the middle of nowhere.
• Random stocks random setups will give you random results, superstar stocks with superstar setups will give you superstar results.
• If you’re a new trader, you should be selling at least part of your position pretty quickly, just lock in that profit, build your confidence up, get your equity curve to start moving in the right direction, aggressive locking in profits and selling losers even more aggressively. But once you’ve been in the game for longer term, trading for cash flow makes no sense, maybe it’s just me being lazy but I really don’t want to trade, I want to make as few trades as possible.
• QQQs at least in Nov2020 it did bounce off the 100day, but more importantly what happened earl/mid Nov2020 was we had a lot of setups, it doesn’t really matter what the market does, what you have to do is pay attention to the setups, when there are a lot of setups, the market will be trying to tell you something, that’s where your odds of success and r/r are the biggest.
• KBIO did you know I lost 500% on it? I was shorting it I was gonna be short into the weekend, market closes, I leave my computer for like 15mins, I come back and I’m down 500% on it, I lost 1/4 of my total equity in like 15mins. I’ve been losing money in every way possible guys, like all the big squeezers I’ve lost money on it, at least before I nailed them, I usually nail them eventually. Trust me when I tell you, you don’t want to be a parabolic short seller. And after I covered it doubled, the only reason I’m here talking with you guys is bc I don’t hesitate getting out, if I have to get out, I get out, I don’t give a sh*t how much I push up the price, I get out. That’s why I create these wicks on all these stocks, if I need to get out, I get out.
• You should be scared shorting parabolics, it is scary, I’ve been some insane moves. Something like GME happens a couple of times per year, not necc as liquid but happens several times per year, it’s all about knowing how to trade them. It’s the same thing over and over again, this is like watching a movie you’ve seen 10/20x before, super predictable, but you just don’t know how long the movie is gonna be, but you know exactly how it’s gonna end, and the text in the end you know exactly what order it’s gonna come in, you just don’t know for sure how long the movie is gonna last, same thing over and over again.
• GME sold a tiny bit, soon it’s gonna setup all over again, I’m just trailing my long for now, gonna use the 20ema on the 60min, but if it goes up maybe tomos we’ll get a short setup again, today is day2 of the second leg higher.
• Shorting is just a really really tough business to be in, and everyone is gonna be against you, it’s hard to get locates, it’s expensive, the mathematics are against you, it’s like fighting the laws of the universe, super hard. You can never make more than 100% but you can very easily lose 1000% if you’re not careful. But on the long side, just this year alone how many multiple 100% winners have I had? Dozens, and my initial risk was maybe 5%, the r/r is just so much better.
• If I double my account in x months, my size and risk will have doubled too maybe a few months later, there’s usually a lag, bc it takes time to get used to using new size and risk. That’s how you scale, that’s how you grow a small account into a huge account.
• At a certain point if you have a couple of setups that you have traded for a long time, it becomes so automatic, it’s like driving. It’s a lot of effort in the beginning, but once you spend a lot of time on it, it’s a no effort thing, it’s automatic, you can multi task.

Misc:

• I just trade so I can get free Nocco.
• Takashi. CIS.
• Picture of my setup, also with my cat.
• Satellite phone, I would rather lose 10% of my account than get something like this. The bigger the stick the better?