289 [Know when your setups work and don’t work. Feb 18, 2021]

  • SOS I covered a ton into close yesterday bc it held up so well, I covered FNGU and now look at them gapping down a lot, it’s so annoying man, if trading was easy it would be much easier to make money. SOS shorted some more orls.
  • RIOT I was prepared for a potential 10M trade, but now with this gap down, it’s gonna be a difficult trade, bc it could rally to 85, or it could fade down to 50. Same thing that happened with TLRY, even after that gapped down it still made a big move lower, so gotta be prepared for anything. So the morning bounce is starting to fail in these names. This RIOT could go to 50 by today. I hope it bounces a little bit, fails at vwap, and takes out the tight range later mid/late day, I would like to double my position.
  • MARA short some orls also. RIOT has better range has 36% downside to the 10day. MARA only has 18%, it really makes no sense to play MARA when RIOT is so much better, I’m just going them both bc it’s better with liquidity. CAN also 36% to the 10day yeah same thing.
  • PLUG I’ve only covered a small part of my short, if it loses the 50day next stop is gonna be the 100day, the base where it broke out last time is here mid 30s, that’s my target.
  • TSLA this one too if it loses the 50day, the 100day is here the last base it had this little flag where I went long mid 600s, that’s my first target for this thing, if we’re gonna start seeing a real pullback.
  • NNDM gonna watch this, this thing could go back to mid single digits in a flash, once the reality of this stock, the fundamentals of this stock hits. This thing is so bloated, just in a few years shares outstanding have gone from 1M to 30M.
  • ARKK add to short through lows. ARKK yeah these things tend to not end well, every market cycle you get these fund managers that are treated like Gurus or Geniuses or Oracles, and ARKK is the one of this cycle there’s no doubt, I see on twitter people follow daily what ARKK buys and sells, like why didn’t you follow what ARKK did here [2017], but now up here now it’s interesting to see what they do.. it’s the same cycle over and over again, don’t be that guy, be the guy that realises these things go in cycles it’s the same patterns over again just the players change, the game doesn’t change.
  • PLTR is a good bounce play yeah sure, it’s down [40% in 6 bars] yeah it’s extended enough, not something I would have on my radar but yeah orhs it either works or it doesn’t. PLTR there’s a lot of volume, it’s approaching the daily avg volume now.
  • So as the market has kept rallying, the number of stocks participating has decreased, that’s usually what happens every single time, if you go back 20 years and look at this type of data is happens, at the start of every rally there’s some broad participation, and as the rally keeps going fewer and fewer stocks participate, this is also what’s happening now, things get tired. If you keep mindlessly buying breakouts you’re gonna get your ass handed to you, gotta be really really selective. Breakouts work really well when they work, but there’s a long time period when breakouts don’t work and you shouldn’t even think about the word breakout.
  • You can also trade breakdowns and rangebreaks to the downside, I do that sometimes too, like SQ yesterday when it broke the rising 20ema, these types of stocks they trade very controlled, like here when it broke the 10day [22/10/2020] had a nice move lower, was a breakdown trade. TTD I shorted a couple of months ago when it lose this range here, went down 20%, very liquid stock you can do a lot of size, very controlled moves.
  • ROKU I’m also looking at stuff like this that had big big moves, these things when the market corrects it’s gonna take everything down eventually, some of these stocks that had big moves up without any real corrections, they can make big big fades. Rn I don’t see a setup here, it’s still showing rs, but once it doesn’t show rs anymore, gonna be interesting.
  • COMPQ is off what 2.8% off the highs two days ago, I wouldn’t call it a correction yet, but this is very dangerous territory to keep buying breakouts, this is not the time. the best time to buy breakouts is when the market is coming out of a long consolidation, or off a decent correction, not up here. All the breakouts I bought last week they failed, that’s how you know the market is trying to tell us something, it’s all about listening, with the context of there are no long setups almost, pretty much none.
  • When there is not much to do in the market you get more time to study, study setups, study traders, study the markets, use it to your advantage, let the losers churn their accounts, let them blow up, while you sit on your hands, and study, and build the foundation of future success. That’s how you do it, that’s what winners do.
  • So far I’m up maybe 20% on the year, if my accounts were smaller I would be up 100%+, some of these names like TRXC, SENS, there’s been some insane moves, some of these htf breakouts, there’s so much opportunity, just free money.


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