284 [Buy the lows and sell the top on $TLRY? Feb 10, 2021]

  • TLRY, which I’m long, what a beast, this is where I bought it initially like 8.50s can’t even see it anymore, I looked at the weekly and I said man this thing has potential, and here we are 600% later, but I didn’t think it was gonna go to 63, I thought it was gonna go to 15/20. Good thing I rebought it at 20 ish on that perfect htf. I think it’s my biggest long trade ever, almost $6M I think.
  • TLRY I sold like half of what I had left premarket, but this thing the downside to the 10day is 53%, the r/r here is not really in favour of the longs, having said that this thing could squeeze to 100, and if I sell everything now, idk it’s tricky. I guess I’ll have to sell all, it would be irresponsible not to, this thing has a good short setup. It’s now up 140% in 3 sessions, and before that it was also up 180%, this is day3 of the third leg higher, and now it’s speeding up. I’m not saying if you’re in it you should sell into strength, but like look at the 60min, you can use like the 10/20ema on the 60min as a trailing stop, bc this is the ema the stock has been surfing. F*ck it I’m out TLRY, I can’t.
  • TLRY shorted orls, 2/3 size. Alright this is a big move, I’m covering some shares into this move. Looks like my TLRY sell wasn’t too bad man. That was just pure luck selling it near the highs pm. I may have covered a few too few. Just as I started bragging this is what happens. If it can’t hold vwap, if it can’t reclaim vwap, maybe I’ll add a bit more to my short. Adding to TLRY yolo.
  • APHA shorted orls, 1/3 size. APHA working.
  • It would suck to give back a huge amount of profits, the question is which sucks more; missing out on profits or giving back profits? You have to choose between two sucks, it’s gonna suck either way, you just gotta choose which one is gonna suck more.
  • You never want to be in front of the train, you want to be the train. If you feel at any moment in trading you’re not the train, you better step aside. Especially when shorting stocks.
  • ENPH bought orhs, gap up. ENPH they had earnings today, and it’s kind of a htf setup, breaking out on earnings, idk if it’s an ep, technically I guess it is. This thing in the past 3years it’s up 21000%. Stopped out, the hyper growth on this ENPH looks like it’s over for now. This thing had triple digit eps and rev growth, this is what you should be looking for, these are the stocks that can make very big moves, if you just focus on one type of stocks, focus on the ones that have triple digit eps and/or rev. Look at the growth on this, mid/high double digit rev growth and over 1000% eps growth, look at the move it made. If you just look for setups in these type of stocks, you have a big edge. Or you can just focus on stocks with hot momo, or you can do a combination, depends on how you’re wired, if you want to add fundamentals it’s a great way of doing it, helps to add conviction.
  • LAZR bought breakout.
  • TSLA I don’t like the look of this one, it really needs to hold here. Shorted some. Finally I nailed it, I’ve been trying to long and short this thing for like 3weeks now, I tried longside twice and shortside like 3 times.
  • VLDR yeah I’ve been watching this for a while, hot sector too, looks good, too thin for me.
  • ENG yeah it’s actually a 5* setup, I like it, really nice really linear and clean.
  • Just bc something isn’t a long setup doesn’t mean you should sell it, it’s two completely diff things, you need to think in terms of r/r. TLRY had a seriously skewed r/r, that was a parabolic, IDEX is not a parabolic, it needs to go sideways for at least another week imo, I think 20day needs to catch up at this point, bc it’s had such a big move, it needs to digest it. Doesn’t mean it can’t go straight up from here, but it’s not a good long setup. You want a big edge, if you trade, you want a big edge. You need to find those really really good setups. Preferably you want to find early htfs. You want to buy them near the MAs, pretty much all the great breakouts happen when the price is at the 10/20day, not when it’s way above.
  • FUTU yeah tomos if it keeps going gonna be a 5* short setup, and it’s so liquid. When I bought it initially here [4/11/2020] it was kinda illiquid, pretty small position, and now it’s one of the most liquid stocks in the us stock market. And look at how the volume is increasing as the price is increasing, which means the dollar vol is going up exponentially. Every big market move ever, most of the money comes in near the top, look at the dollar volume on this thing going up exponentially, all these funds/people why didn’t they get excited about this thing down here, they’re just buying bc the share price is going up, that’s called momo. If you can create a setup around momo, you can buy anything you want and you will never have to worry about money again.
  • FUTU short starter. This is a sign of strength, I took a starter but prob gonna get stopped out, I hope it goes to 250 by tomos.
  • MSTR, if it had gapped up I should have shorted the sh*t out of it, instead it gapped down like 10% almost. But yeah look at this thing orls 1min, you have a well defined risk and this thing could easily go down to 800 today, looks like it’s doing that.
  • Trading is such a pain in the ass, it’s such a mindf*ck most of the time, most people can’t handle it. That’s why it’s so important to have specific setups, and even then it’s constantly a mindf*ck. That’s why I try to cut out all distractions, just focus on what’s going on in front of me, focus is so important in this business. In this business if you’re not focussed it can be the difference of you living on a yacht vs you living on the streets.
  • PLUG I’m out long, if it can reclaim the 20day and close in range it’s gonna be an incredible long setup, but rn just playing defence, not gonna risk anything, if I get stopped out, I get stopped out. PLUG going straight down, pls bounce, if it can bounce and fail at vwap I’m gonna short the sh*t out of this thing. I don’t like this market, so many warning signs rn. F*ck this sh*t I’m gonna short PLUG, okay 1/3 size, since it feels a little bit like a chase, but I’m gonna cover if it reclaims vwap.
  • I’m playing defence first, getting rid of margin is the number one thing you should do when things are not acting right. Now I’m not gonna be the victim of the markets, I’m in control that’s what it’s all about, always being in control, not getting thrown left and right depending what the market does. Maybe it’s just a shakeout but it doesn’t matter, it’s so easy to get back into stuff. I just got rid of my margin, I’m still 100% invested on the long side, and also some short exposure too. That’s how you do it, that’s how you supercharge your returns, when things are going well you push it, then as soon as you start seeing signs of slow down, you gotta get rid of the margin, else you’re gonna get killed.
  • Find an enduring edge, correlations are not an enduring edge, correlations go away, but certain things they just persist, the same patterns I trade they’re existed for over 100years, and sure maybe they can go away, but why would they go away now? And if they went away, no stock would ever go up again, it’s human behaviour, human behaviour stays the same, algos work on the 0.01s time frames, it’s funds that push their algos to start buying these things. You have algos like MM on the bid and ask all day long, and they you have the algos like pension funds use to get good fills on their buys and sells, but at the end of the day it’s still us humans that determine these big moves.
  • GLD looks pretty decent on the weekly, big big flag on the weekly, I’m looking at the gold miner etfs GDX, GDXJ, if they break out of this long consolidations I’m gonna buy them. SLV is actually flagging, I’m gonna rebuy this thing, AGQ also, if they breakout.
  • GME, wait for a setup, now it’s actually on the 50day, printing two sideways days and now it actually has some potential for a bounce, or like a little bit of a breakout off the 50day. Don’t get into this stupid pseudo waste of thought about the shorts/short interest, learn the setups.
  • You don’t have time to sleep? Yeah bc you’re putting in effort to learn this skill, I’ve already put in the effort, for me it’s auto pilot, it’s second nature. I sometimes do a study of setups, but it’s become second nature to me bc I’ve done it for so many years, it’s a reflex, I don’t have to put in a lot of effort anymore. It’s like driving a car, when you’re new it’s a lot of effort, now it’s all reflexes.
  • PACB it’s up a lot. Try to find early trends for an EP, if this news had come when the stock was in the 5s or 10s that would have been great, not when the stock is up 1200% in the past 6/7months.
  • If we have hyperinflation yeah stocks would probably go up, but even if you make a lot in stocks your real buying power may not increase a lot, or at all. That’s what happened with some of the Argentina stocks, like GGAL, these things had big runs back in 2017/2018, PAM this is a utilities went up 2000% in a few years, and a lot of these Argentina stocks went up a lot, I was like wth is going on I don’t find any fundamental reason for it, apparently they have a lot of inflation, that’s why these things went up, and the currency went to sh*t.


  • Guys I’m doing these things in real time so you can learn from my mistakes. I’m suffering for your sake, I’m like Jesus. I’m suffering so you guys don’t have to.

#shorting #masterclass

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