• TLRY what a beast, sold some premarket, finally now you see what I was seeing a couple of days ago on TLRY, look how tight it is on the weekly, just reclaimed the declining 50weekly, looks how tight it was between the declining 50weekly and the rising 10weekly, this thing could go to like $20 easily. Considering TLRY broke out two days ago it may not be an optimal buy point here, but could be a runaway gap, I’m considering adding myself, actually I won’t bc I’m already in full size but it wouldn’t be crazy to buy it here.
• GBTC on its way to become one of my biggest trades ever, on its way to a 3M trade.
• RIOT holy sh*t, up 400% since I bought it 6/7weeks ago, too bad I don’t also still have MARA bc that one is also up like 500%, I need to work on my patience, I’m so good at finding them but so bad at holding them, that’s my biggest weakness.
• BNTX and MRNA I’m thinking could bounce, now they’re had pullbacks, these things rally from the lows after they’ve had pullbacks, that’s when they rally. BNTX pulled back to the rising 150day where it also found support previously, and MRNA pulled back to the rising 50day and now it’s building hls above the rising 50day.
• KSS and JWN and M getting excited about, if they just can go sideways one more day, all these department stores these things are building powerful flags. JWN bought some orhs. Look at those beautiful department stores, beautiful setups. Who’d have thought I’d be trading department stores in 2021? You gotta go where the setups are, if you want triple digit returns year in year out, you gotta go where the setups are, you can’t have favourites.
• HEXO bought some orhs. Stuff like CGC big volume, I did miss the orh breakout though, not an ideal entry. ACB bought some. APHA bought some orhs. Could be runaway gaps developing in some of these weed names, potentially. Okay some of the weed names are selling off it looks like, I thought they could be potential runaway gaps.
• SEDG what a beautiful breakout, I did not have this one on my watchlist for some reason, getting sloppy. Yeah you can buy a pullback, it is back to levels where it broke out orhs, not typically what I do but yeah if it’s a good setup it’s not crazy, you can do it.
• QS failing at the declining 20ema for now, I was really hoping this thing could bounce back to the 80 area, still have 2/3 of my shares. QS my stop is about $1/2 above breakeven, it’s a big trade now nearing 2M, one of my biggest ever. This is how you trade a bounce play okay, learn this setup, this thing was down 61% in 5 sessions, was a big momo stock had a big move higher then a big move lower, it’s prob not gonna go down forever without bouncing that’s the main premise of the setup. Your job is to buy it when the risk is the lowest and the probability is the highest it’s gonna go up. So yesterday as soon as it went green on the day, took out orhs, that’s when I started buying it.
• LAZR similar bounce play but LAZR never really gave a perfect setup. LAZR also had a big move up big move down, went down 53% in 6 days or something, then it had a big bounce, but this one I didn’t trade bc it didn’t give a perfect setup. I guess there was a setup on the 60min bc once it bounced off the 20day it started building hls and had a range here, so could have been a setup here on this day here [18/12/2020] when it broke out of this range on the 60min, but this was more of a breakout type of setup, like a low level breakout, than a bounce play.
• HVBTF, I wanted to buy in my ib account but I don’t have any bp left, this thing you blink and it’s gonna be at $5, this is that type of stock. Bought some. If you are wondering about this wick it must be those algos.
• MELI damn I should have shorted orls.
• TARS this is a really good looking one wow, really good looking flag, that’s a 5* setup right there.
• POWW yeah was a decent setup, maybe not a 5* but yeah decent setup, was surfing the 20day, building a classic triangle and gapped up out of this range, orhs was the entry point.
• XXII wow good looking setup, really good looking setup.
• ARKK what’s in this etf; TSLA, ROKU, TDOC, SE, PINS, SHOP, PYPL, ZM, SQ.. pretty much my fav stocks, okay I’m gonna buy what can go wrong, I’m chasing it a little bit but look, if we’re in a bubble this thing could go to 200 legitimately. Yeah it’s not the highest ADR but for me it’s perfect, high priced, liquid, very linear. ARKG I’m gonna cover this thing, or should I wait for the close, no I’m gonna cover it up, it didn’t break down, gonna cover while I still have profits. I’m gonna go long Cathy Wood, on margin, bc everyone else is going long her etfs, I want to be there, I want to go where everyone else is going, that’s where you get the big moves. I really want to buy ARKG, heck why not it’s a bull market, it undercut the 20day, it’s building hls, I’ll do 50kshares, risking $3 to make what $30. So switched from short to long, that’s how you do it guys, you can’t be biased, you have to follow the price action, you can’t have favourites.
• CRWD I need to get out of my short while I still have a profit, I’m short from like 218.40 but yeah it’s coming back hard, look at how nicely it bounced off the 20day, and now it’s building hls, so I’m getting out of it. There’s so much strength in this market here, except for like TTD this thing literally can’t have an uptick, so I’m gonna keep this one short could very easily go to the 100day, but trailing with the 10day, this was a homerun so far and it still has room to go, pretty much my only short left rn.
• TDOC just breaking out, I’m a little bit tempted doing this thing, it’s been going sideways 6/7months, and now it’s building hls, on the weekly it looks amazing, look at how nicely it’s surfing the 200day, it’s an alternative setup not something you guys should trade. I know a lot of really smart people who really like TDOC, and technically it’s shaping up nicely too, gotta have a wide stop on it though [bought some highs]. Kinda regret I bought, not really the type of setup I’m looking for, but I’m looking at the weekly and this thing could really make a big move, the way I see it I’m risking $6/7 to potentially make $100, this thing goes it could go to 300 with some patience.
• FCX congrats to those that bought on the breakout [29/12/2020] that was a 5* setup and straight up since.
• Where should I put my stop if not lods? No, that’s a beginners mistake, beginners are afraid of taking losses so they start doing stupid things like widening their stops and doing everything they can to not take losses, that’s a loser mentality, you gotta get around that. You need to accept losses, they can be annoying, they can be frustrating, but you have to accept them. You gotta take your loss and move on.
• I think certain sectors and stocks are in a bubble, there’s no question about it. I think the next 5/10year returns on some of these high flyers, even if they execute perfectly, they’re gonna go down/sideways for a long long long time. Just look at something like AMZN, went down 95% once the internet bubble burst back in ’99/’00, even though they were growing their business like 50/80/100% per quarter, had insane rev growth yet it took the stock 10years to come back. Same with MSFT once the internet bubble popped this thing went down 67%, so lost 2/3 of it’s value and look how long it took for the stock to come back, 16 years to come back to the levels, and they executed pretty well I think they tripled their rev during this time, but bc the multiples were so high, it took 16 years for the stock to grow into the valuation. And those are just the ones that kept executing perfectly, for every MSFT and AMZN there were hundreds and hundreds of stocks that didn’t make it. Now let’s look at something like TSLA, I think this thing goes to 1000, at this rate before the end of the month, but if you’re investing in it now, I don’t think the next 10year returns are gonna be pretty on this thing, even if they execute perfectly, I think it’s one of these bubble stocks. I don’t know where it’s gonna stop, it’s the best trading stock ever, for the past 5years most of my volume has been in TSLA every single year, but I would rather cut off one of my legs than invest significant money in something like this.
• ABNB, idk, the setup is actually starting to shape up, maybe tomos, actually I kinda like it, especially if it goes sideways a few more days it’s gonna be a 5* ipo breakout.
• It’s expectancy that matters, winrate doesn’t really say anything about a trader, you can lose money having a 70% winrate and you can make money having a 20% winrate, winrate doesn’t really mean anything, it’s expectancy.
• Buy it right and sit tight, don’t start chasing stuff that goes straight up, you only add on a good setup. Now you sit in it, you trim and trail. Don’t start adding more to something just bc it’s going up, that’s not the way you do it, only add on good setups.
• I don’t do much during bear markets, I started trading 2011, I’ve seen bearish market conditions like Q418 when the COMPQ went down 25% or so in a few months, then Feb/Mar2020 the corona sell off COMPQ went down over 30% in just a month, but you won’t get many setups there, everything is so correlated to the market. In a bull market you have stocks that go up, down, sideways, there’s a lot of things you can be long/short at the same time. But in a bear market, especially when there’s fear and panic, pretty much everything is gonna go down, and when the market upticks pretty much everything is gonna uptick with it, so it’s more about nailing the market action than actually nailing individual stocks. In a bull market it’s more of a stock picker’s market, down markets you gotta be careful, don’t do as much, def don’t buy breakouts. Then 2015 was a choppy year up down up down, this was like a mini bear market, but something like this from mid2007-early2009 or even late2000 to early2002, a multi year bearmarket, I haven’t experienced myself, but it’s not too hard if we go back and study the price action index, you know my rules 10/20day risk on filter keeps you out of most of the bad markets and keeps you in most of the good markets, so bear markets aren’t actually hard to trade bc you don’t actually trade that much, there’s very few opps. Bear market is not your enemy, bear market is actually your friend, bc the best and biggest rallies occur after the market has been going down like 15/20/25%, when you get a rally from those kinda conditions, those rallies can be insane, just look at Apr/May2020, or the first rally off the bottom 2009, just insane, free money.
• I hear it a lot like daytrading you control your risk better bc you don’t risk being in overnight gaps, but gaps are not the risk, gaps are an opp. Yeah you can have something that gaps against you but that’s what position sizing is for, that’s why you don’t go all in one stock. I saw some stat that pretty much all the gains after the March lows last year were from gap ups, if you bought every open and sold every close in the indices you didn’t make any money, all the moves were in the overnight gaps. So no I think that’s a bs argument that daytrading is less risky bc you don’t have any overnight risk. Daytrading is mostly a losers game, it’s the hardest thing you will ever do. And daytrading you’re always near your entry, take something like RIOT I’ve been in for months, up 400% on it, this thing hasn’t been close to my stop since day2, I barely look at it I don’t have to worry about it, whereas if you’re a daytrader you’re prob near your entry most of the time, just an exhausting game man. Thankfully I realised it pretty early, that swingtrading makes just so much more sense, and also I read the market wizards books and I realised almost none of these guys are daytraders, they were all holding positions for weeks and months, that’s gotta tell you something, so most of the most successful traders are not daytraders, why would I want to be a daytrader?

Misc:

• Do you plan on trading with a 100M account one day? Dude if this market keeps up I could legitimately have 100M by the end of this year, but it’s not gonna, I don’t think this year is gonna be as good as last year.
• David thinks he’s not a boomer, David you are a boomer.
• If you are wondering about this wick it must be those algos. I hate those stupid algos. I blame the algos.

#rant