• So far it looks like the QQQs found support on the rising 20day premarket, IWM too, this is the first retest of the 20day since it broke out early Nov2020, IWM has been leading since, so far it’s a good sign. Gap downs in a bullish tape are bullish, they usually resolve to the upside.
• BILI is now up 17% since I sold it, and up 72% since I bought it initially, this is what happens, memorise these patterns with these flag patterns, especially the ones that breakout on earnings, there’s fortunes to be made there. Don’t rocket science it, do not use all these stupid opinions people have, just focus on setups and earnings, all you need to do, and you will start catching these things left and right, at least in a bull market.
• ABNB I was thinking about doing orls, but it would have been so much better if we’d gotten a gap up, bc gap downs I hate these types of setups, would have been so much better if it had gapped up to 160s or something, then I would have hit this thing with 20kshares. But for you daytraders that was a really good shorting setup. Damn that was a miss. ABNB grinding back higher, great daytrading setup, this was a 5* setup, if you’re daytrading and you missed this thing idk wth you’re doing, these types of setup this is the best daytrading setup it’s not even close, these type of mean reversion setups.
• AI is another one potentially for tomos or the next few days.
• PLTR is starting to look interesting, it’s right on the 20day rn. Shorted some, now losing the 20day. Added to PLTR, short 150kshares. Added more to PLTR, 200kshares now, coming out of a tight tight range. Got stopped out of 1/4, that’s fine, so now it tested the lower end of the range again, built a hl. If this thing breaks to the upside I think it can go to 40 easily, this first leg higher it went up over 200%, why can’t it go up like 50% if it breaks out again in this market. Undercut the 20day and couldn’t break down, it’s bullish, I really hope it resolves to the upside in the next few days, goes to 40/50 or something that would be epic, and then it’s gonna be an insane shorting opp too.
• ARKG is like one of these speculation indicators, this one is strong even though QQQs are weak. What are the other ones ARKF, ARKK this is the one I was looking for, these things look great. Those are like speculation indicators, every bullmarket every mania has their own gurus or geniuses, I think Elon Musk and Cathy Woods are two of the main ones this cycle, so as long as their stuff is doing good it’s risk on. If these ARK etfs start losing support, and TSLA starts going down, that would get me worried, rn it looks fine.
• EDIT, going higher, broke out of a htf. Hot sector, CRSP and NTLA are not as fast as EDIT but same sector. These are the types of stocks you should be trading, ADR9.6%, it’s up 20% on the day, up 20% in like 10mins. Not these stupid low like ADR2.5% ADR3.9%. No these are the stocks you should be trading.
• CRSP was a 4.5* setup coming into today, I would have preferred a little bit more sideways for the 20day to catch up, but yeah if you look at the 60min it’s perfect. EDIT, NTLA, whole sector is going today. EDIT well if you bought today like low 67s where it broke out, these types can be tricky, it wouldn’t be crazy if you sold 1/3 into this move, just bc it’s straight up, usually you don’t get a move like this, this thing has an ADR of 11% so this is triple the ADR, it wouldn’t be crazy to sell 1/3 and then use a b/e stop and trail the rest with the 10day, just bc it’s straight up, it’s a big move. EDIT is just insane, this is not normal, this is what you get when the markets are in melt up mode, and there’s nothing wrong with it, the melt up mode that’s when you make the most money as a swing trader, these types of market environment, they don’t last for long but you can make your year in a few weeks.
• SOXL my short is not performing well, it’s very good, I want to get stopped out of this short at a loss, it’s the best thing that could happen. Added to SOXL short lods. Gonna stop me out of my short, undercut and held the 20day this is very bullish, a candle like this is very bullish, bullish bullish bullish. I talk about it all the time, a stock or index can be down on the day and still be super bullish, anytime you get a strongly trending stock or index or etf undercut rising support and closing strong it’s super bullish most of the time.
• NVAX setting up yes, I got stopped out Friday from the Thurs buy but it’s setting up again, it’s not going away. MRNA also holding the rising 20day support, BNTX found support on the rising 50day, these are the leading vax names, they look constructive.
• The risk [on buying breakouts] is a bit heightened since the indices have been going straight up, but as long as there are many setups that are breaking out it’s not problem, it’s when you really start running out of setups that’s where I think problems will arise. But yes ideally the best time to buy breakouts are when the markets start coming out of a correction, or a long range break. Like early Nov2020 that was a great time to buy breakouts and also like late Nov2020 when the indices came out of this right range.
• GP looks like a decent one, hot sector that’s the main thing, if it starts going up on volume could really go.
• HIMX, undercut the 20day found support and now it’s back in range, I think it could be ready for tomos.
• RDFN is a beast, this thing was up what like 27 out of 30 sessions, refuses to go down, that’s the demand, it’s real estate, real estate is really hot rn, the real estate market in the us is at all time highs, whole sector is on fire.
• FUBO, sold like 1/3 so far, up 55% from entry, this is what a good breakout looks like, this is what a fast growing stock can do in a bullmarket, last Q rev growth 950% YoY, that’s insane. I don’t care about the earnings quality or anything, obviously this thing is gonna lose money anyway it’s a small cap company, small cap fast grower these things don’t matter, it’s all about the overall rev growth in this type of market. That’s just the market we are in, but a lot of people still after so many years haven’t been able to adapt, rev growth is what this market rewards, just a hint of explosive rev growth, not gonna last forever but this is what’s getting rewarded rn. FUBO this thing is up 75% in 4 sessions, it’s def something you want to trail with the 10day, while something like AMD which is a slower one ADR 3.5% this one you want to trail with the 20day, just bc it’s more likely to pullback to the 20day it’s not one of these ultra momo names.
• CHWY gonna be a great short opp over the next few sessions, if it can keep going towards 120/130, it’s straight up. CRWD too if it can go towards 250 or so. Some things are getting a little extended so that’s a little bit worrying, something to keep in mind.
• LYFT, it depends on where it closes, if it closes like this I would still hold it overnight just bc it still closes above the lods, but if it closes like mid/low 47s near lods, I would get out, but if it closes like this I would hold it and then use today’s lows as final stop. So it depends on the candle and stuff like that. You see these things all the time, a stock usually on the 10/20day you get an undercut of them and then the stock reverses and closes way higher eod, that’s why I always want to wait for eod, bc you get these intraday games that are irrelevant.
• High short interest stocks tend to underperform the market, but sometimes they can have quick spikes higher in some market environments, but nothing I pay attention to.
• NIO yeah good strength but no setup. Strength means nothing if you don’t have a setup, it’s just throwing darts, only a setup is gonna give you an edge, otherwise it’s just playing with randoms.
• SNOW is actually setting up, look at how well it’s surfing the 20day building hls, I think it could be a good setup starting tomos on the long side. I kinda like it.
• Well a good point to stop yourself out [of a short] is when the stock goes green, that would be a good exit, there’s no reason to be short a breakdown if the breakdown fails. It’s the same logic as if you buy a breakout and the breakout fails there’s no reason to be long that stock, if you buy a breakout and the stock goes red there’s no reason to be in it, probably, most of the time. Same logic with breakdowns, if the stock goes down there’s no reason to be in it, the stock is telling you it doesn’t want to go down yet, all you have to do is listen. Now the stock can obviously change its mind 2secs later, but your job is to always listen to what the stocks/the market is telling you.
• QS hods, what a beast, and look at it now it looks like it’s starting to speed up, the candles are getting longer, what if it goes to 120 this week that would be so epic.
• Everyone is starting to make their own chips it’s kinda interesting, like is INTC gonna be a big thing in 5years? Yeah INTC they’re been dominating for so long, this is what happens many times, companies that dominate for so long, same thing happened with IBM, same with KODK, like they get lazy they stop innovating, the employees get fat and lazy, the management get fat and lazier, there’s more people in management than are actually innovating and you know then the new hungry companies come and take your business. Happens over and over again, kinda funny to see real time, it’s sad really is. Like everyone has been complaining about INTC for years, their cpu have minimal upgrades YoY, and recently AMD has been taking market share from them, and now AAPL came with the M1 chip, and everyone’s gonna do their own chips now that are better than INTC’s. What’s the one, ASML they do semiconductor lithography, idk what it means but I think this is like the picks and shovels stock for semiconductors, doesn’t matter which one is doing well, these ones are gonna do well, and TSM too. These are the stocks you wanna own, it’s a little bit the same logic as exchanges, look at ICE look at NDAQ, CME, they’ve all been doing pretty well, you don’t have to be a genius, if you own the rails it doesn’t matter who runs the trains, if you have a monopoly on the picks and shovels it doesn’t matter who finds the gold.
• For traders like us valuation is irrelevant, the most overvalued stocks are the ones that make the best moves, that’s what I’ve been seeing year after year since I started trading in 2011. The crappiest stocks are the ones that tend to make the biggest moves, not always but many times. But if you’re an investor buying some of the hot momo stocks rn I think you’re not gonna be happy over the next 3-5years, I don’t think many of these momo stocks are gonna have great returns over the next 3-5years. But rn it doesn’t matter, bc we’re not gonna be in these for the next 3-5years.
• I always want to find good traders, I want inspiration, I want to see how they trade, what they trade, I’m always looking for great traders, I want to push myself, I want to get to the next level. Anyone who’s not up 500%+ this year I’m not interested.
• SBE is coming back, I started rebuying cautiously, it’s doing the same with QS did twice, a shakeout and then slow grind back.
• I learned a lot from games. If I hadn’t played wow I wouldn’t have become a successful trader, I’m telling you guys. Well you figure out the mechanics, what do you do on wow if you wanna become a good player, you have to figure out the mechanics, you have to understand the numbers behind it, the different classes and equipment and all of these things how all these mechanics work, like armour and critical damage etc. That’s the same thing you have to do with the stock market, you have to figure out the underlying mechanics, and then just as in wow you have to exploit the weakness of your opponents right, same thing you exploit the stock market. If you understand the game you have a big edge over someone who doesn’t understand the game, same with the stock market if you understand the mechanics behind you can exploit them, use it to your advantage. And then you combine it with a grind, there’s a big big grind, if you wanna play wow it’s a lot of grinding, you better have no life. Goes for trading too, it’s much easier if you have no life, I can’t imagine people having families and being like middle ages having jobs starting trading it’s kinda crazy. I was lucky I started in my early 20s, I was single, I didn’t have any mortgages any of that, I could focus on just trading. That’s the key, you really need to focus, spending just a few hours per day it’s hard man. It is true the stock market pretty much is just a video game, in a way it is. You figure out the mechanics, how things work, you’re never gonna figure it out completely there’s always gonna be a lot of random things happening but certain things repeat over and over again, certain patterns certain themes, once you understand that you can use it to your advantage, once you understand that you can have a big edge. Most people they never bother learning, they just do random sh*t based on idk, they follow other people, alerts, their gut feeling, but they never really spend a lot of time trying to understand how do stocks move, most people don’t spend anytime getting an edge, they just do random things and sometimes like this year there’s a lot of newly minted millionaires bc the market has been right for certain types of aggressive behaviour, it’s been very forgiving but 95% if not 99% of them are gonna give it all back eventually, bc they don’t have any edge, what they’re doing is just gambling and they’ve been lucky for now. Same thing that happened in ’99/2002, a lot of people made fortunes, people quit their day jobs daytrading and most of them gave it all back.
• Well first you should probably spend 10/20/30hours just studying good setups and then I think you’re good to go, you can’t learn if you don’t do, I don’t know about the value of paper trading, you gotta do it with live money. I’ve never tripled my money as fast as when I was paper trading, and then I started trading with real money and I lost 90% of it in two months.

Misc:

• My total pnl I think I’m closing in on 35M, this year 25M maybe.
• It’s almost as if my returns aren’t usual.
• Grittani started about the same time, he was ahead of me for years and years but this year I’ve just gone parabolic and he hasn’t bc he’s still daytrading, he hasn’t figured out how to scale his trading. Ozark trades, mostly daytrading, he trades a lot of parabolic trades, a lot of these smallcap pumps and stuff like that. LX21 has probably made 50/100M by now.