240 [Mini earnings season today! Dec 3, 2020]

  • QS I guess I should have followed my sell rules, used the 10day sell rule, but it’s kinda hard cos it went down 45% from the highs, I sold it low 40s, now it’s back to where I sold it. I’ve been reading on this QS, this thing is pretty damn interesting, solid state batteries, VW is a big owner, it’s backed by bill gates, this thing is interesting, could be the next big thing, but I need a setup. There’s some pretty legit backers and investors in that company, tells you something about it, it doesn’t feel like one of these random retail pumps like BLNK, KNDI, like anytime you have legit people behind big names, not every time obv but, I think the odds of success are higher.
  • DNLI yeah it’s setting up, looks like a pretty decent setup, could work but I would prefer if it went sideways a bit more, but that’s what I always say.
  • Bought some NVDA yesterday but sold half before the close bc it didn’t really go, would have preferred a close over 550. If it doesn’t go today I’m gonna sell it, depending how it closes ofc, I wanna be in faster moving stocks.
  • MRNA covered all yesterday, but I am watching this 141 area, seems to be an area of interest potentially. MRNA, yesterday it had a bounce day, today it’s having a bounce day, let’s say this thing goes to mid/high 150s today and tomos it gaps up, that would be a perfect 3rd day bounce setup.
  • NIO perfect perfect multi day bounce, ran into the 65ema, see where this thing stopped the 65ema, this thing has been acting as support the whole way up, now it’s acting as resistance, this is called backside.
  • If you learn these setups, these mean reversion setups, if you’re a daytrader, there’s so much money to be made, I think the mean reversion setups are the most profitable day trading setups, and then also combined with these earnings orhs, that’s also a good daytrading setup if you don’t wanna swingtrade.
  • If you wanna trade these mean reversion setups, they need to run up into some kinda resistance, either on the daily or the 60min. FCEL hasn’t bounced enough, but if it were to have gapped up towards mid/high 8s or something, then it could have been a mean reversion like daytrade setup definitely.
  • SE I bought a small position, I was unsure about the setup. SE actually has pretty decent volume, it’s only 36mins after open and it’s already traded almost the avg daily vol, so the vol was good, but it was kinda wide coming into today, but sometimes when a stock breaks a clean range, it can have some wideness before, but I usually prefer tightness, that’s why I did half size, I wanted to be in it but I didn’t wanna go fullsize.
  • I think we may get some really nice bullflags, some of these are already breaking out on the 60min which is kinda annoying, I hope they can go sideways for a few more days, these EV names.
  • SNOW had a perfect 10day bounce on earnings, I know it was gapping lower initially.
  • ZS, why didn’t I buy look at this thing, orhs 166, straight up since. I hate when there is so many, if there had just been one reporting I would have been all over this thing, but you had like 4 of them and I just froze, what an idiot. None of them really stood out, yeah they all had great earnings but none were a big surprise bc all of them already had great earnings for a long time now, so none of them had great earnings out of nowhere, that’s usually what I look for, something that’s been kinda neglected for a while or for a long time, then has big earnings out of nowhere. Stuff like PINS or SNAP, and just insane volume. Something like ZM, yeah it had great earnings but that doesn’t mean it has to go up, ZM needs to build a base it’s already up 500% this year, it’s not that easy great earnings goes up, bad earnings goes down, that’s not really how the market works, many times things need to digest. ZS, CRWD, ESTC, OKTA, these things are breaking out of 2/3month bases, and ZM would have also gone higher if it had broken out of a solid base, but this thing is not really in a solid base. BILI broke out of a solid base on earnings [19/11/2020], and this is another one it wasn’t really an ep out of the gate, it was the combination of an earnings EP and a breakout, at first it was a regular earnings breakout that became an EP, so they can be a combination of two setups, but those are my fav ones, that breakout of bases, that don’t gap up too much and break out of solid solid bases, few months consolidation yeah.
  • The indices go up on lower volume, lower volume is good, indices so up on lower volume, they go down on high volume, they go up on lower volume. On individual stocks big volume is good on breakouts, but on the indices it’s low volume usually. If you look at the QQQ on the daily, you can clearly see the red bars are bigger than the green bars, the best runs were low volume, something like late ’19 early ’20 look at this low volume, then you had this sell off on high volume, then you have another low volume grind this year, then you had a little volatility on higher volume and now we are low volume grind. Low volume is good.
  • TWLO, the breakout was two weeks ago right here [19/11/2020], now this is just a random up day, you have no edge, absolutely no edge buying here, if you want an edge then you need to buy them right, you just can’t buy any random up day, just bc something is up doesn’t mean it’s a breakout.
  • Fomo is not a nice feeling, and when you miss out on a trade that you should have been in, and it works out really nicely, it’s a really sh*tty feeling. This is one of the reasons most people don’t make it in this business, they can’t handle it, they start chasing, and if you start chasing you’re gonna be dead sooner or later.
  • Since 2013 I’ve averaged over 200%, If you are a fulltime trader, it’s like MM says, if you don’t make at least 100% you’re sh*t, and I agree, if you’re a short term full time trader, like daytrader/swingtrader, if you don’t make at least 100% you’re pretty bad, and those guys aiming for 20% annually while still being active traders, they’re like the turd of turds, 20% for an investor that’s pretty good, but if you’re a short term trader like get a real job really. So you should be aiming for at least 100%, especially if you have an account less than a few million, you really should be aiming for at least 100%, just being profitable it’s not enough. Well no obviously not in year one, it’s gonna take a few years, for me it took 2 years just to stop losing money, but once you get profitable, you should be aiming for at least 100% and if you don’t you have some work to do.
  • Who cares what they think, their sentiment is irrelevant, focus on getting great. Read the market wizards books, read up on these great traders, learn from them. Stop reading what losers write and start reading what winners write. Read the MM books, the O’Neil books, the Darvas books, The Market Wizards books, everything Livermore, read up on the winners, don’t focus on losers on the internet. That’s how you’re gonna make it great, if you learn from the greats you’re gonna be great too.
  • I think average intelligence is enough, like there are some successful traders that are really really smart, and then there are some that are just not that sharp, there are a lot of traders that have made 10s and even 100s of millions and they’re just not very sharp, but what they do have is enough intelligence to identify what works, and they’re humble enough to avoid the stupid stuff. They do enough of the correct things and avoid the really dumb stuff, and that’s what trading and investing is all about.
  • Your life doesn’t have to change, you can live whatever way you want, but I’m telling you being financially independent takes a lot of stress off the table. Just waking up every day and not having the pressure to perform, you don’t have to go to a job, you don’t have to pay a boss, you can live life on your own terms, every day it’s my decision do I want to trade today or not, I don’t have to do it, it’s not like if I don’t trade today I’m not gonna be able to pay my bills, and I can tell you that feeling it’s just pretty damn good, bc I know how it feels to have financial stress, it sucks, it really sucks, and not having that it just like your mental capacity increases, you don’t have to worry about that sh*t, that’s how life changes.
  • Yeah I have thought about putting everything in passive investments but I feel like I’m too young to retire, I wanna see how great I can become. I want to make 100M, why not? I have the strategies, methods in place and they’re very very scalable. Something like MRNA for eg, I was short 80kshares, looking at the liquidity, even if you had been short like 1Mshares would still have been less than 1% of daily volume, some of these stocks are so liquid and these methods are very very scalable; breakouts, eps, mean reversion shorts, if you just focus on the liquid ones. So I feel I have the 3 methods I trade I can scale them for a long time.

#masterclass #ep #earnings

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