207 [Possible short setups in solar stocks emerging? Oct 8, 2020]

  • TSLA bought yesterday late day, now it’s gapping up gonna add more orhs. This is an incredibly good long setup, incredibly good, why can’t this thing go to 550/600?
  • WWR, got stopped out yesterday, lost like 100k on it trying to short this thing 2 days in a row.
  • ENPH, SEDG and JKS watching for potential short setups, orls or if they have a run up after the open looking for first red 5min fails and vwap fails stuff like that. So there’s two types of setups for these; either orls on the 1min/5min or if they run out of the gate, go straight up, I’d like to see them build the first red 1min or 5min candle or let’s say a vwap fail, if they tank a little bit then run up into vwap and fail at vwap, like the first red 1min/5min candle off vwap for eg, those are potential entries for short on parabolic type of stocks. The key is you never step in front of these, you always have a set stop, you don’t go shorting a little bit here and there and hope for the best, you always need a way out, you never know where these things can go, they could go up 50% intraday, you don’t know that. We are looking for the stocks to tell us when they want to go down, we are not in the business of hoping for the best, we are here to listen to what the stocks tell us, that’s our job, we are in the listening business.
  • SEDG, shorted 1min orls. Stopped out of starter, looks like they found a bid now. Shook me out, 67k loss, now it’s straight down, ffs. Should have reshorted orls, would like a nice bounce for starter entry. Shorted these just bc they gapped up when JKS gapped down, so I thought they’d be easier, and they’re higher priced, I always prefer higher priced stocks over lower priced, it’s easier to trade fewer shares. Shorting momo stocks you have to be quick, like really quick with your entry and exits, like literally if you’re 5seconds too late, you could miss the whole thing, the entries are so specific, that’s why I’ve been moving more to swingtrading on the long side and doing fewer of the momo shorts unless I see something really good.
  • ENPH shorted orls. ENPH is showing rs to the other solars, shorting is so easy everyone can do it. Just covered a bit more, I think this thing tests the 10day, still 13% lower, I think it goes sub100, was straight up almost 60% in two weeks, need a little bit of a rest. Same thing with all the solars, I think they’re gonna test the 10day.
  • JKS has found support on the rising 10ema on the 60min, if it can build lhs I may short some. This thing is up almost 200% in a month. If it starts failing at vwap gonna do some. Now very strong, it was the weakest one out of the gate. Looked like a 5* setup today, but no setup has a 100% winrate, it’s all about the odds. It’s gonna come eventually, the higher they go the better, you know the best thing that can happen if you get stopped out of a momo stock you’re shorting, is if it goes straight up higher, bc you know it’s gonna be a better setup, with a higher success rate and a better r/r, that’s like the best thing that can happen.
  • Pos stocks MARA and RIOT perking, I guess BTC starting to get hot, from the SQ news I guess. Doing a starter 50kshares GBTC, thin one but these things can run. I think crypto is hot bc SQ put 1% of their assets in BTC. BTC is trying to come out of this range here, last time it came out of a range it had a big run, went up 30% in a couple of weeks. MARA was a good setup if you got it early, sub 2.10s, same with RIOT, these are sector trades, not the type of setups I usually trade but they’re alternative setups, when a whole sector wakes up bc of some news.
  • Days like today are when you spot rs, down days are the best, down days is where your profits are made, bc you see which stocks are telling you they want to go higher. Down days are a gift, down days are what separates the good traders from the bad traders, where the bad traders are freaking out, that’s where you see opportunity, that’s where you see new setups emerging.
  • ZM, looks like AMD back late last year before the breakout [11/12/19] and look at the move AMD made, went up 50% in a couple of months, this is what ZM looks like, it just hasn’t broken out yet. This thing looks absolutely f incredible, if this thing can stay tight, so the 20day can catch up a little bit, oh man, I’m gonna go big on this one, I’ll sell down some of the other things I’m holding. This thing could go to 650/700 if it breaks out from this range.
  • PTON building a potential second entry, it faded, bounced, and now it got rejected off the vwap and these declining emas, there could be an entry here. Took a starter.
  • All you need is momo, nothing else is gonna make you money, momo is all that matters. All you need is love? Momo is love, momo is one form of love. Trust me.
  • AYX, it had a nice ep two days ago, when it guided higher and got a new ceo. Could have bought it orhs, 3mins after the open this thing had already traded 600kshares, half the avg daily volume, if you had paid attention you could have bought it.
  • PENN starting to lose this flag, not looking so strong anymore, looks like it wants to test the 50day.
  • Airlines starting to go, they are kinda taking out big consolidations, but they’re not momo stocks, there must be some news on the whole sector.
  • This trading psychology, I think it’s all bs, you know what’s gonna help you, if you have a profitable setup, if you have a setup that works, if you’ve studied a specific setup, and know that it works over time, boom, suddenly you don’t need a trading psychologist. It’s just a bs profession that’s preying on unprofitable traders, I’ve read some of these trading psych books, it’s all bs man.
  • Technicals and momo they trump everything. Like obviously you can increase your odds by focussing on the sectors that have the most excitement, the best earnings stuff like that. It helps knowing a little bit of fundamentals but not too much. But sector is very important, it’s very important to be in the right sectors, if you have a setup, a random stock, I’d rather trade the stock that has a good setup in a hot sector than just some random stock that just happens to have momo nothing else, I’d rather trade the stock in the hot sector, whatever it may be.
  • Yeah sales growth is what’s working rn, just like the late ’90s, and we know how that ended right, it’s not gonna last forever, then it’s gonna be something else, every decade has it’s own factor that works very well; there’s been price to book, there’s been price to earnings, all these things have their turn, and right now it’s sales growth.
  • You don’t need to be full margin in a few stocks, there are some circles, like Zanger is a proponent of that, I know some people have gotten rich that way, being full margin in 3/4/5 stocks, you don’t need to, if you get a bull run there’s gonna be so many stocks going up, I’m on margin rn I’m in 19 positions, there’s no need to take huge risk on any single stock, especially when you’re a heavily technical based trader, anything could happen any of these stocks could gap down 50% overnight, it’s gonna happen sooner or later, a few times per year, it could be any of those, there’s no reason to take on risk like that.
  • There’s several people complaining about me shorting solar stocks, guys it’s just a trade, if there’s a setup, I trade it. I make millions shorting momo stocks, and you shouldn’t care what someone else does. If I see a good setup I short it, if I see a good long setup, I long it. If you wanna make real money in the markets, you need to detach yourselves, if you wanna invest, invest, but if you wanna trade, you should get out of the sect mentality. Every stock is only good if it goes your way, if you’re long a stock and it’s not going up, what does it help you? Doesn’t matter if you love the product, it’s not gonna help you. Trade the setups, I know it sounds radical, but it’s okay to short a stock that has a product or service you love, if you see a good setup that you know, where you know you have an edge, there’s a good chance you’ll end up a little bit richer, and you can still enjoy the product or service from that company. You need to detach yourself from the companies to the stocks, the stock is just a piece of paper, it has different moods. Like WWR it went up 1000%, doesn’t mean the company is suddenly 1000% more valuable, nothing has changed fundamentally, the only thing that has changed is the twitter pump got going and people got excited about it. ENPH, nothing has changed fundamentally in the past few weeks, and I can bet you nothing changed when it went down 45% in about a month back in may/jun. Stocks have moods, sometimes they’re in a good mood, sometimes they’re in a bad mood, and your job as a trader is to exploit these moods, your job is to anticipate when a stock is going from a bad mood to a good mood, or from a good mood to a bad mood or from a good mood to a better mood, that’s your job as a trader. It’s all about the setups, you don’t need any predictions, let the stock tell you what it wants to do.


  • If you haven’t seen the ptj documentary, this is a must watch, so good. ‘Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones Documentary on Trading (1987)’, so many trading nuggets in here, there’s a reason why this guy is a multi billionaire, he gets it, I learned a lot from ptj. He lives in a huge house and has a turkey as a pet.
  • Here it is, this is my trading desk setup.

#masterclass #shorting

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